GET DAILY SIGNALSQualcomm (QCOM) Delivers Q4 Revenue Beat but Guides Cautiously on EPS
Key Takeaways
- Qualcomm reported fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 revenue of $10.32 billion, down 8% year over year and slightly above the consensus estimate of roughly $10.1 billion.
- Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) came in at $2.17, down 28% year over year and one cent above the $2.16 consensus.
- Handset chip revenue fell 26% to $5.14 billion, missing estimates, while automotive revenue surged 89% to a record $1.99 billion.
- First-quarter adjusted EPS guidance midpoint of $2.25 landed below consensus, overshadowing the revenue beat and weighing on the stock after hours.
- Management reaffirmed its $5 billion fiscal 2027 data center revenue target and expects non-handset revenue to grow more than 60% year over year.
- For more detail on Qualcomm's Major News, Today's Price Move, Price Targets, and Forecast, explore Tickeron's dedicated pages.
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Why This Report Matters Right Now
Qualcomm's fiscal fourth-quarter results come at a critical juncture for the chipmaker. Its core smartphone segment is dealing with softer demand as global handset shipments decline, while higher memory costs are squeezing margins in consumer electronics. At the same time, the company is pushing hard to diversify into automotive, Internet of Things, and AI data centers. I am watching closely to see if these newer areas can offset the smartphone slowdown and how the transition away from Apple modems might affect licensing revenue. This update gives the clearest picture yet of how that shift is unfolding and what it could mean for future profits.
Breaking Down the Quarter's Numbers
Qualcomm posted GAAP revenue of $10.32 billion for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, an 8% drop year over year, while non-GAAP revenue hit $10.44 billion at the upper end of guidance. Adjusted EPS of $2.17 was down 28% from a year earlier yet came in one cent above the $2.16 consensus. GAAP net income reached $1.25 billion, or $1.17 per diluted share, versus a net loss of $3.12 billion in the prior year that included a sizable tax expense.
In the QCT semiconductor segment, revenue slipped 8% to $9.02 billion. Handset revenue declined 26% to $5.14 billion, below estimates near $5.25 billion. Automotive revenue jumped 89% to a record $1.99 billion, and IoT revenue rose 4% to $1.89 billion, with both areas exceeding expectations. The QTL licensing business saw revenue fall 7% to $1.30 billion after the company renewed long-term deals with Apple, Huawei, and Transsion. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
For the first quarter of fiscal 2027, Qualcomm guided revenue between $10.4 billion and $11.2 billion, which topped consensus, but adjusted EPS between $2.15 and $2.35, with the $2.25 midpoint coming in below expectations. Full-year capital expenditures of roughly $2.5 billion also exceeded forecasts.
Market Reaction and Sentiment
Even with the revenue and adjusted EPS beats, Qualcomm shares fell about 4% to 5% in after-hours trading. The move followed a familiar “beat but guide down” pattern, with investors focusing more on the softer first-quarter profit outlook and higher capital spending. The mismatch between strong revenue projections and a lighter earnings range highlighted margin pressures from rising wafer, packaging, and memory costs. Before the report, sentiment had already been cautious, with the stock lower for the year amid weak smartphone demand and ongoing Apple modem concerns.
Forward Outlook and What to Monitor
Management described fiscal 2027 as the beginning of a “non-handset revenue inflection,” centered on the data center ramp. The company repeated its $5 billion fiscal 2027 data center target and projected non-handset revenue growth of more than 60% year over year. A September agreement with Amazon to supply up to $60 billion in AI data center chips adds another major customer alongside Microsoft and Meta Platforms.
The near-term picture remains uneven. Most non-handset growth is expected in the second half of fiscal 2027, while first-quarter chip revenue guidance sits only modestly above the just-reported quarter. Rising input costs continue to pressure margins, and pricing actions are expected to help QCT gross margins fully only in the second half of the year. I am watching this closely because inventory levels, free cash flow, and the pace of the Apple modem shift will be important indicators in coming quarters.
Integrating AI Tools Into My Research Process
I frequently use Tickeron’s AI Screener to scan semiconductor names and compare fundamentals, technical patterns, and performance metrics across the sector. It helps me quickly surface ideas and risks that complement traditional earnings analysis, making it a regular part of how I evaluate opportunities like the one presented here.
Disclaimer
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
QCOM in upward trend: price may ascend as a result of having broken its lower Bollinger Band on October 30, 2026
QCOM may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 30 of 37 cases where QCOM's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold zone. Keep an eye out for a move up in the foreseeable future.
Following a +4.70% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where QCOM advanced for three days, in 219 of 329 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 30, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on QCOM as a result. In 67 of 88 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 76%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for QCOM turned negative on October 30, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 48 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 36 of the 48 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 75%.
QCOM moved below its 50-day moving average on October 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for QCOM crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 30, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 10 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where QCOM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 74%.
The Aroon Indicator for QCOM entered a downward trend on November 03, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 4 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 31 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 39 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 59 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (6.350) is normal, around the industry mean (6.097). P/E Ratio (18.622) is within average values for comparable stocks, (18.355). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.832) is also within normal values, averaging (3.803). Dividend Yield (0.022) settles around the average of (0.012) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.513) is also within normal values, averaging (46.468).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 61 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. QCOM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 67 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. QCOM’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 77, placing this stock better than average.
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a provider of wireless communication systems
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