GET DAILY SIGNALSRoundhill Generative AI & Technology ETF (CHAT) Declines -16% in 30 Days Amid Broader AI Repricing
Key Takeaways
- The Roundhill Generative AI & Technology ETF (CHAT) declined roughly 16% over the trailing 30 days, falling from about $84.63 to near $70.77 per share.
- The fund is down approximately 24% over the trailing three months, reflecting a sustained repricing of the AI infrastructure theme.
- CHAT is a non-diversified, actively managed fund concentrated in global generative AI companies, with semiconductors and mega-cap technology driving most of its performance.
- Information Technology accounts for roughly three-quarters of the portfolio, followed by Communication Services, giving the fund a high-beta, momentum-sensitive profile.
- The largest holdings, including NVIDIA, Alphabet, Microsoft, SK hynix, and Advanced Micro Devices, have weighed heavily on recent returns.
Roundhill Generative AI & Technology ETF (CHAT) Overview and Portfolio Exposure
The Roundhill Generative AI & Technology ETF is an actively managed exchange-traded fund that seeks long-term capital appreciation by investing in companies involved in generative artificial intelligence and related technologies. The fund typically holds between 25 and 50 global companies spanning AI software, cloud infrastructure, and semiconductors, with an expense ratio of 0.75%. It is non-diversified, meaning a relatively small number of holdings can have an outsized effect on returns.
The portfolio is heavily tilted toward Information Technology, which represents roughly 77% of assets, with Communication Services at about 15% to 17% and Consumer Discretionary contributing a smaller share. Leading positions include NVIDIA, Alphabet, Microsoft, SK hynix, Amazon, Advanced Micro Devices, Micron Technology, ASML, Astera Labs, and Meta Platforms. This concentration in high-multiple semiconductor and AI-infrastructure names explains why CHAT is considerably more volatile than broad-market equity funds, with a beta above 1.8, meaning it tends to move more sharply than the broader market in both directions. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the fund compares to others in the industry.
CHAT Price Performance: Last 30 Days vs. Quarter
Over the last 30 days, CHAT fell about 16%, declining from roughly $84.63 to near $70.77 per share. The move was not a single-day shock but a stepped, trend-driven decline punctuated by brief rebounds, consistent with a high-beta fund experiencing sustained selling pressure rather than an isolated event.
The trailing three-month picture is weaker still. From approximately $93.52 per share, the fund has dropped about 24%, meaning most of the damage occurred within the most recent weeks. The pattern—an extended slide with lower highs and lower lows—points to a broad de-rating of the generative AI complex rather than a narrow, company-specific development.
What Drove CHAT Price in the Last 30 Days
CHAT’s recent decline stems primarily from its concentrated exposure to semiconductors and AI-infrastructure mega-caps. Names such as NVIDIA, Advanced Micro Devices, Micron Technology, ASML, and Astera Labs carry elevated valuations that are sensitive to shifts in investor sentiment around the durability of AI capital expenditure. When that enthusiasm cools, these holdings—which together account for a meaningful portion of the fund—tend to fall faster than the broader market.
The fund’s structure amplifies the effect. As a non-diversified, high-beta thematic ETF, CHAT lacks the defensive ballast that more balanced funds provide, so a repricing of growth and semiconductor stocks translates almost directly into fund-level losses. Communication Services holdings such as Alphabet and Meta Platforms, which also rank among the largest positions, add to the concentration risk because they are similarly tied to the AI investment cycle and its monetization outlook.
What Drove CHAT Performance Over the Last Quarter
The broader three-month trend reflects a rotation away from high-valuation, momentum-driven technology themes. Institutional investors have shown greater caution toward AI names as questions mount about the pace at which heavy infrastructure spending will convert into revenue growth. Within CHAT, semiconductor holdings such as NVIDIA, Micron, AMD, and ASML have led the decline, while mega-cap software and platform names provided only partial offset.
Macroeconomic conditions also played a role. Elevated interest rates raise the discount rate applied to long-duration growth assets, compressing valuations across the fund’s technology-heavy roster. International positions, including SK hynix, ASML, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, expose the fund to global semiconductor cyclicality and currency dynamics, further contributing to volatility over the quarter.
Exploring AI-Powered Screening Tools
In my own analysis of thematic funds like this one, I often turn to Tickeron’s AI Screener to quickly scan for comparable setups across technology and semiconductor names. The tool lets me filter by technical indicators, fundamentals, volatility, and AI signals, which helps surface ideas more efficiently than manual methods. It has become a regular part of how I compare momentum and value characteristics in this space.
CHAT ETF Outlook: What Investors Should Watch Next
Going forward, the fund’s direction will likely hinge on the same forces that drove its recent weakness. Investor attention remains fixed on whether AI infrastructure spending can be sustained and monetized, a theme that directly affects NVIDIA, AMD, Micron, ASML, and other core holdings. Interest rate expectations and inflation data will also matter, because higher-for-longer rates tend to pressure long-duration growth valuations.
Investors should monitor capital flows into thematic technology funds, semiconductor earnings cycles, and any regulatory or geopolitical developments affecting global chip supply chains. Concentration risk remains a key consideration: because a handful of large positions dominate CHAT, the fund may continue to exhibit outsized volatility relative to diversified benchmarks. Rather than predicting near-term prices, market participants should focus on the durability of AI demand, valuation levels across the semiconductor complex, and the macro backdrop shaping risk appetite. From what I see, this remains an important area to track closely.
Disclaimer
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CHAT in downward trend: price dove below 50-day moving average on October 12, 2026
CHAT moved below its 50-day moving average on October 12, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 23 of 25 similar past instances, the stock price decreased further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 08, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on CHAT as a result. In 40 of 46 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 87%.
The 10-day moving average for CHAT crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 7 of 8 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 88%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CHAT declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 77%.
The Aroon Indicator for CHAT entered a downward trend on November 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where CHAT's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 16 of 18 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 89%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 31 of 34 cases where CHAT's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CHAT just turned positive on November 12, 2026. Looking at past instances where CHAT's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 37 of 38 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
Following a +9.22% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CHAT advanced for three days, in 269 of 294 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
CHAT may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
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