GET DAILY SIGNALSSaia (SAIA) Delivers Record Q3 Revenue on +17% Growth and EPS Beat
Key Takeaways
- Saia reported record quarterly revenue of $982.5 million, up 17% year over year and above consensus estimates near $963 million.
- Diluted earnings per share (EPS) came in at $3.41, up from $3.22 a year ago and ahead of the roughly $3.30 analyst estimate.
- Less-than-truckload (LTL) tonnage rose 8.9%, while revenue per shipment excluding fuel surcharge increased 5.8%.
- The operating ratio (operating expenses divided by revenue) was 87.6%, in line with the prior-year adjusted result.
- Year-to-date free cash flow exceeded $240 million, and the board authorized a new $250 million share repurchase program.
Earnings Context and Why It Matters
Saia, Inc. (NASDAQ: SAIA) operates as a national less-than-truckload carrier, handling freight that exceeds parcel size but falls short of a full truckload. Its results often serve as a useful indicator of industrial shipping demand and overall economic conditions. The company has spent recent years expanding its terminal network with dozens of new facilities to improve national coverage and density. This expansion has weighed on near-term margins, so attention turns to whether higher volumes and better pricing can support stronger profitability. Third-quarter numbers stand out because they reflect peak shipping activity and help shape expectations for the final months of the year.
Reported Results
For the third quarter ended September 30, 2026, Saia posted record revenue of $982.5 million, a 17% rise from $839.6 million in the same quarter last year and ahead of estimates around $963 million. Diluted EPS reached $3.41, compared with $3.22 a year earlier and above the consensus near $3.30. Net income increased to $91.4 million from $86.3 million.
Both volume and pricing supported the gains. LTL tonnage climbed 8.9%, shipments per workday rose 0.8%, and revenue per shipment excluding fuel surcharge advanced 5.8%. Operating income totaled $122.3 million, up 17.5% from the prior-year adjusted amount. The operating ratio held at 87.6%, matching the adjusted figure from a year ago and improving on typical third-quarter patterns. The cargo claims ratio hit a company record low of 0.3%, while the contractual renewal rate reached 10.8%. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Even though the company topped estimates on both revenue and EPS, shares fell about 4.8% on the day of the release. The decline appeared to reflect profit-taking after a solid run leading into the report, along with questions about the operating ratio staying close to last year’s level despite the sharp revenue increase. For an LTL operator still in the middle of network expansion, investors often look for margin improvement alongside revenue growth. The new $250 million repurchase authorization highlighted management’s confidence, yet some market participants seemed focused on whether profitability gains are keeping pace with capacity additions.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
Looking ahead, the focus will be on whether Saia can maintain volume momentum while lifting profitability. Since the start of 2022 the company has added 45 terminals and expanded or relocated more than 25 others, boosting operational door count by roughly 32%. Newer facilities have historically pressured the operating ratio during their ramp-up phase, so the pace at which they reach profitability will be closely watched.
Pricing discipline remains important. Contractual renewals near 10.8% point to continued focus on rates amid changing freight conditions. The REV initiative, which has improved transit times on more than 2,000 lanes, may help support further share gains if service improvements aid retention and growth.
Capital allocation and cash generation also warrant attention. With year-to-date free cash flow above $240 million and the fresh buyback authorization, the company looks positioned to return capital while funding network investments. Rising self-insurance and workers’ compensation expenses remain a margin consideration worth monitoring in coming quarters.
Using Tickeron’s AI Tools for Research
In my own analysis, I frequently rely on Tickeron’s AI Screener to scan for stocks that match specific technical and fundamental criteria. The tool allows quick filtering by industry, performance metrics, and AI signals, which helps surface ideas more efficiently than manual reviews. It has become a regular part of how I compare names like Saia against peers in the transportation sector.
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
Momentum Indicator for SAIA turns negative, indicating new downward trend
SAIA saw its Momentum Indicator move below the 0 level on October 28, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new downward move. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 92 similar instances where the indicator turned negative. In 76 of the 92 cases, the stock moved further down in the following days. The odds of a decline are at 83%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for SAIA turned negative on October 28, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 54 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 39 of the 54 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 72%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SAIA declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 74%.
The Aroon Indicator for SAIA entered a downward trend on October 06, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where SAIA's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 24 of 27 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 89%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 52 of 65 cases where SAIA's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 80%.
Following a +3.25% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SAIA advanced for three days, in 255 of 325 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
SAIA may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 22 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. SAIA’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 67 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly better than average sales and a considerably profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 83 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.347) is normal, around the industry mean (2.881). P/E Ratio (33.019) is within average values for comparable stocks, (44.673). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.416) is also within normal values, averaging (12.936). SAIA has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.010). P/S Ratio (2.715) is also within normal values, averaging (2.068).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 83 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. SAIA’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 82, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
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Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
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General Information
a provider of multi-regional less-than-truckload carrier services
Industry Trucking
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