GET DAILY SIGNALSSID Stock Price Target: Can Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional Reach $1.20 (+55% Upside)?
Key Takeaways
- The central price target for Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional (SID) used here is $1.20, based on a rounded mean of current analyst price targets.
- This target is the arithmetic mean of four current analyst targets reviewed, which span roughly $0.80 to $1.50, producing a mean near $1.17 before rounding.
- With the ADR trading near $0.77, reaching $1.20 would require a gain of roughly 55% — a very large move.
- The strongest supporting factors are Brazil's antidumping duties on imported steel and CSN's low-cost, integrated iron ore and logistics base.
- The biggest risks are persistent losses, high leverage, weak Brazilian steel demand, and a consensus rating of "Sell."
- For more detail, explore Major News, Today's Price Move, the Forecast, and Earnings pages.
- Investors can also explore Trending AI Robots for AI-driven market analysis and trade ideas.
Analyst Price Targets and Consensus View
Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional (SID) is the NYSE-listed ADR of Brazil's largest fully integrated steel producer, headquartered in São Paulo and operating across steel, iron ore mining, logistics, energy, and cement. Coverage of the ADR is thin but current. Four analyst price targets were reviewed, ranging from roughly $0.80 to $1.50 per share. Averaging these targets yields a mean of approximately $1.17, which I round to a clean central target of $1.20.
The prevailing stance is cautious. The consensus rating is a "Sell" or Underperform, with no Buy ratings among current coverage. UBS has been the most visible name on the ADR, maintaining a Sell rating and adjusting its price target down from $1.40 in December 2025 to $1.20 in April 2026. The low end of the range, near $0.80 to $0.90, sits barely above the current share price, while the high end near $1.50 reflects a more constructive recovery scenario. This wide spread signals genuine disagreement about how quickly CSN's financial position can improve. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Current Market Position and Path Toward the Target
The ADR recently traded around $0.77, near the lower end of a 52-week range spanning roughly $0.70 to $2.20. From that level, reaching a $1.20 stock price target implies an upside of about 55%, a very large move that would require a meaningful re-rating of the shares, not just a technical bounce.
The path would likely depend on a recovery in Brazilian steel prices and volumes, combined with progress on deleveraging. CSN's consolidated revenue was around R$44–45 billion in recent years, but the company has reported negative net income, and forward EPS estimates remain negative into the near term. A durable move toward the target would require the market to begin pricing a return to profitability rather than continued losses.
What Could Support a Move Toward the Target
- Antidumping protections: Brazil's duties on imported steel, particularly from China, have eased competitive pressure in the domestic market and support local pricing.
- Integrated cost base: Captive iron ore from the Casa de Pedra and Engenho mines, plus owned rail and port infrastructure, give CSN a structural cost advantage versus peers.
- Diversified operations: Mining, logistics, energy, and cement segments provide revenue streams beyond steel and can partially offset weakness in any single business.
- Balance-sheet actions: Asset sales, including divestitures in the cement business, are aimed at reducing debt and could improve the risk profile if executed successfully.
What Could Prevent the Target From Being Reached
- Persistent losses: Negative net income and negative free cash flow keep valuation dependent on a turnaround that has yet to materialize.
- High leverage: Elevated debt levels raise refinancing risk and limit financial flexibility in a high-rate environment.
- Weak demand: Soft Brazilian construction and industrial activity can suppress steel volumes and pricing.
- Currency and macro risk: As an ADR, SID is also exposed to Brazilian real depreciation and to global steel-cycle and commodity-price swings.
Technical Levels and Market Structure
The ADR's long-term structure remains weak, with the shares having fallen from above $2.00 to under $0.80 over the past year. The $0.70 area, near the 52-week low, is a key support level to watch, while $1.00 acts as both a psychological level and a meaningful resistance zone given the gap between the current price and the target. The $1.20 target sits above multiple prior trading areas, meaning the stock would need to reclaim several resistance levels in succession before approaching it. From what I see, monitoring these levels closely helps clarify whether momentum is shifting.
Time Horizon and What Investors Should Monitor
Analyst price targets typically reflect a roughly 12-month research horizon, though the thin coverage of the ADR means individual assumptions vary widely. Key items to monitor include quarterly earnings and guidance, steel price and volume trends in Brazil, progress on debt reduction and asset sales, currency moves, and any analyst revisions. Economic data on Brazilian industrial activity and interest-rate decisions from Brazil's central bank also matter for the domestic demand outlook. I’m watching this closely as new data comes in.
Final Assessment
Can SID reach $1.20? The question frames a very large move — roughly 55% above current levels — against a backdrop of weak fundamentals. The central target, derived from a rounded mean of four analyst price targets spanning $0.80 to $1.50, reflects cautious expectations that the shares could recover meaningfully if Brazilian steel conditions and CSN's balance sheet improve. Supporting that scenario are antidumping protections, a low-cost integrated base, and deleveraging efforts. Working against it are ongoing losses, high leverage, soft domestic demand, and a consensus "Sell" rating. Investors should treat the target as one data point among many and watch earnings, steel pricing, debt reduction, and analyst revisions for the next signal.
Using AI Daily Buy/Sell Signals for Research
In my own process, I’ve turned to Tickeron’s AI Daily Buy/Sell Signals to track names like SID more efficiently. The tool applies artificial intelligence to scan thousands of stocks and ETFs, producing Buy, Sell, or Hold signals based on technical behavior and market shifts. For a thinly covered ADR with volatility, it offers a practical way to spot trend changes alongside traditional analysis.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
SID in downward trend: 10-day moving average moved below 50-day moving average on October 26, 2026
The 10-day moving average for SID crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 26, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 19 of 21 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
SID moved below its 50-day moving average on October 26, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SID declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 83%.
The Aroon Indicator for SID entered a downward trend on November 11, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where SID's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 26 of 31 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 84%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 49 of 62 cases where SID's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 11, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on SID as a result. In 68 of 86 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for SID just turned positive on November 11, 2026. Looking at past instances where SID's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 41 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 82%.
Following a +9.59% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SID advanced for three days, in 177 of 240 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
SID may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 4 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.093) is normal, around the industry mean (2.084). P/E Ratio (-0.430) is within average values for comparable stocks, (32.382). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.280) is also within normal values, averaging (0.339). SID's Dividend Yield (0.879) is considerably higher than the industry average of (0.073). P/S Ratio (0.183) is also within normal values, averaging (2.301).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 25 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 82 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. SID’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 95 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. SID’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 70, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
a company which interests in the steel, mining, cement, logistics and energy sectors
Industry Steel
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