GET DAILY SIGNALSStarling Oncology (STLN) Falls -36% Over 30 Days: Q3 Results and Guidance in Focus
Key Takeaways
- Starling Oncology (STLN) declined roughly 36% over the past 30 days, driven almost entirely by a single-session drop of nearly 46% on November 6 after third-quarter results.
- Third-quarter revenue of $169.77 million rose about 24% year over year and exceeded consensus, but the company narrowed its full-year revenue outlook to $650 million–$660 million from $650 million–$670 million.
- Investors focused on the updated capitated-revenue trajectory and fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA guidance of $3 million–$5 million, which fell short of expectations.
- Several analysts trimmed price targets while keeping Buy ratings, with the broader consensus remaining positive on the stock.
- Shares trade within a wide 52-week range of $2.32 to $7.13, reflecting elevated volatility.
- For more detail on this ticker's valuation, financials, and outlook, explore the Price Targets, Earnings, and Forecast pages.
Company Background and Market Position
Starling Oncology, Inc. (STLN) stands as one of the largest value-based community oncology groups in the United States. Founded in 2007 and headquartered in Cerritos, California, the company was formerly known as The Oncology Institute and began trading under the STLN ticker in August 2026. It delivers specialized cancer care through more than 100 clinics across five states, supported by a network of roughly 400 employed and affiliated clinicians serving a population of approximately 2.1 million patients.
The company operates three segments: patient services (including chemotherapy, immunotherapy, and radiation oncology delivered in infusion suites), specialty pharmacy (dispensing oral and self-injectable oncology medications), and clinical trials and other services. Its value-based, capitated contracting model aligns provider incentives with payors, a structure that underpins much of the company's growth narrative and investor interest. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Recent Stock Price Performance: Last 30 Days vs. Quarter
Over the last 30 days, STLN fell from a close near $6.63 in early October to roughly $4.22, a decline of about 36%. The move was heavily concentrated: on November 6, shares plunged nearly 46% in a single session, closing at $3.62 from a prior close of $6.70 on unusually heavy volume, before partially rebounding in subsequent trading.
Looking at the broader quarter, the trend was decidedly mixed. Shares advanced through the summer and into September, reaching a 52-week high of $7.13 in mid-September, then traded largely between $6.20 and $6.90 through October. The post-earnings reset in early November erased those gains, leaving shares well below their September peak and highlighting how quickly sentiment can shift around quarterly guidance.
What Drove the Stock Move in the Last 30 Days
The dominant catalyst was the company's third-quarter 2026 earnings report, released on November 5 after the market close. Revenue of $169.77 million represented roughly 24% year-over-year growth and came in ahead of consensus near $168.69 million, while the net loss per share narrowed modestly. The company also reported positive adjusted EBITDA of approximately $3.4 million for the quarter.
Despite the top-line beat, the market reacted sharply to guidance. Management narrowed full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $650 million–$660 million from a prior $650 million–$670 million range and set fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA guidance at $3 million–$5 million. Investors also appeared to weigh the company's updated capitated-revenue outlook, which several analysts cited as a source of disappointment. In response, B. Riley lowered its price target to $10 from $11, and Lake Street cut its target to $8 from $10, both while maintaining Buy ratings.
Performance Over the Last Quarter and Key Catalysts
The multi-month picture reflects a company in transition that initially won investor favor before resetting expectations. The August rebrand to Starling Oncology and ticker change, a second-quarter earnings beat with raised full-year guidance, the launch of the Starling Nexus technology platform, and inclusion in an S&P Health Care Services Select Industry Index all contributed to the rally that carried shares to their September high.
Throughout the quarter, sell-side commentary grew increasingly constructive on the company's capitated-revenue growth story, with some analysts framing the potential to reach $300 million in capitated revenue by 2027 as "thesis changing." The November guidance update, however, tempered that enthusiasm, underscoring that execution on capitated contracts and the pace of onboarding new delegated lives remain central to the investment case.
What to Watch Going Forward
Investors will be watching the pace of onboarding Florida delegated lives, the trajectory of capitated revenue into 2027, and the durability of positive adjusted EBITDA as the company scales. Fourth-quarter results and any update to full-year guidance will be closely scrutinized, as will specialty-pharmacy margins and the company's progress toward its stated long-term revenue objectives. Broader factors such as reimbursement policy, healthcare regulatory developments, and balance-sheet and liquidity conditions also remain relevant to the outlook. As with any equity, actual performance may differ materially from current expectations, and the information above is not a recommendation to buy or sell.
Exploring Tickeron AI Tools for Deeper Insights
In my own analysis process, I frequently review Tickeron's Trending AI Robots to see how automated strategies are performing across various market conditions. The page highlights top-performing bots with different trading approaches and timeframes, which can help supplement manual research when evaluating names like STLN. It offers a practical way to explore data-driven signals without replacing individual judgment.
Disclaimer
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STLN's RSI Indicator stays in oversold zone for 1 day
It is expected that a price bounce should occur soon.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold zone. Keep an eye out for a move up in the foreseeable future.
Following a +11.04% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where STLN advanced for three days, in 258 of 295 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 87%.
STLN may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 05, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on STLN as a result. In 65 of 74 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 88%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for STLN turned negative on October 26, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 37 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 35 of the 37 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 90%.
STLN moved below its 50-day moving average on November 06, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for STLN crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on November 06, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 13 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where STLN declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 89%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 14 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 15 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (-14.808) is normal, around the industry mean (204.532). P/E Ratio (-12.483) is within average values for comparable stocks, (21.572). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (2.498). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.154) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.124) is also within normal values, averaging (2.688).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 83 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. STLN’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. STLN’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 83, placing this stock worse than average.
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