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Apr 19, 2024

Ticker Triumph: $CENX, $AA, $KALU, $CSTM Boost Aluminum Sector with a Remarkable Weekly Performance Surge

Robots for this group tickers :
Choppy Market Trader, Popular Stocks: Market Neutral Strategy (TA&FA) - 30-day Annualized Return +46%
Swing Trader: Popular Stocks (TA&FA) - 30-day Annualized Return +41%

Aluminum companies have witnessed a remarkable surge in performance, with a collective increase of +8.75% over the past week. In this analysis, we delve into the dynamics of this surge, focusing on key indicators and individual stock movements. The tickers in focus are CENX, AA, KALU, and CSTM.

Positive Outlook and Technical Indicators: The RSI indicator, a powerful tool for gauging overbought or oversold conditions, supports the positive outlook for the aluminum sector. Tickeron predicts a further increase of more than 4.00% within the next month with a likelihood of 71%. The daily ratio of advancing to declining volumes over the last month stands at 1 to 1.24.

The TrendWeek indicator, a reliable metric for assessing short-term trends, confirms the positive outlook for four stocks in this group with an average likelihood of 78%.

Market Capitalization: The average market capitalization across the group is $2.2 billion, showcasing a balanced mix of large and mid-cap companies. AA leads with a market cap of $4.7 billion, while CENX is at the lower end with $718 million.

High and Low Price Notable News: Weekly price growth across all stocks in the group averaged 9.56%, showcasing the robust performance. However, the monthly and quarterly averages reveal some fluctuations, with an average monthly decline of -8.78% and a quarterly decline of -0.91%. KALU stands out with the highest weekly price growth at 11.78%, while CSTM experienced a notable fall of 6.06%.

Individual Stock Performances:

  1. CENX - A Bearish Sign:

    • CENX is currently in a -1.33% downward trend, sliding for three consecutive days as of January 25, 2024.
    • Historical data suggests that when CENX declined for three days, the price further declined in 84% of cases within the following month.
    • Despite this, the current price of $11.51 is above the highest resistance line of $10.96 identified by A.I., indicating a potential reversal.
    • Notably, during the month of 12/21/23 - 01/25/24, the price experienced a -9% downtrend, but the week of 01/18/24 - 01/25/24 showed a +9% uptrend.
  2. AA - An Upward Trend:

    • AA shifted from a downward trend to an upward trend as the price rose above its 50-day Moving Average on January 23, 2024.
    • Historical data reveals that in 83% of similar instances, the stock price increased further within the following month.
    • The current price of $30.47 is between the $27.10 support line and $33.94 resistance line.
    • Over the month of 12/21/23 - 01/25/24, the price experienced a -7% downtrend, but the week of 01/18/24 - 01/25/24 showed a substantial +12% uptrend.
  3. KALU - RSI Indicator Recovery:

    • KALU's RSI indicator moved out of oversold territory on January 18, 2024, suggesting a potential shift from a downward to an upward trend.
    • Historical analysis indicates that in 78% of cases, the stock moved higher after the RSI left oversold territory.
    • The current price of $67.36 is below the lowest support line of $73.91 identified by A.I.
    • Over the month of 12/21/23 - 01/25/24, the price experienced a -3% downtrend, but the week of 01/18/24 - 01/25/24 showed a notable +12% uptrend.

Volume Dynamics: While the average weekly volume growth across the group was -5.1%, indicating a slight contraction, the monthly and quarterly averages paint a different picture. The average monthly volume growth was 34.14%, and the average quarterly volume growth was 25.18%, reflecting increased trading activity.

Summary: In summary, the aluminum sector, represented by CENX, AA, KALU, and CSTM, has demonstrated robust recent performance. Despite some short-term fluctuations and individual stock trends, the overall outlook remains positive, supported by technical indicators and historical patterns. Investors should closely monitor individual stock movements and consider the broader market context for informed decision-making in this dynamic sector.

Related Ticker: CENX, AA, KALU

CENX in downward trend: price dove below 50-day moving average on June 04, 2024

CENX moved below its 50-day moving average on June 04, 2024 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 41 similar past instances, the stock price decreased further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on June 03, 2024. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on CENX as a result. In of 90 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for CENX turned negative on June 03, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 43 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 43 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .

The 10-day moving average for CENX crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on June 11, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CENX declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator for CENX entered a downward trend on June 21, 2024. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

Bullish Trend Analysis

The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where CENX's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, of 23 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. of 65 cases where CENX's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CENX advanced for three days, in of 308 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

CENX may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

Tickeron has a negative outlook on this ticker and predicts a further decline by more than 4.00% within the next month with a likelihood of 84%.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CENX’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 75, placing this stock slightly better than average.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.545) is normal, around the industry mean (2.139). CENX has a moderately low P/E Ratio (7.471) as compared to the industry average of (21.068). CENX has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.029). P/S Ratio (0.731) is also within normal values, averaging (1250.673).

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Alcoa Corp (NYSE:AA).

Industry description

Aluminum is widely used in the industries like construction, packaging and automotive sector. The segment has seen increased demand for the lightweight variety in automobiles in improving fuel efficiency. The U.S. aluminum industry generates nearly $71 billion a year in direct economic impact (according to The Aluminum Association). Arconic, Inc, Alcoa Corp and Kaiser Aluminum Corporation are major aluminum companies in the U.S.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Aluminum Industry is 7.73B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 138.37K to 54.35B. DKIAF holds the highest valuation in this group at 54.35B. The lowest valued company is NORNQ at 138.37K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Aluminum Industry was 2%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was -4%, and the average quarterly price growth was 24%. CENX experienced the highest price growth at 8%, while CHHQY experienced the biggest fall at -6%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Aluminum Industry was 115%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was 35% and the average quarterly volume growth was -1%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 35
P/E Growth Rating: 51
Price Growth Rating: 49
SMR Rating: 68
Profit Risk Rating: 75
Seasonality Score: -5 (-100 ... +100)
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CENXDaily Signal changed days agoGain/Loss if shorted
 
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General Information

a producer of primary aluminum and aluminum products

Industry Aluminum

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Aluminum
Address
One South Wacker Drive
Phone
+1 312 696-3101
Employees
2939
Web
https://www.centuryaluminum.com
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