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Aluminum companies have witnessed a remarkable surge in performance, with a collective increase of +8.75% over the past week. In this analysis, we delve into the dynamics of this surge, focusing on key indicators and individual stock movements. The tickers in focus are CENX, AA, KALU, and CSTM.
Positive Outlook and Technical Indicators: The RSI indicator, a powerful tool for gauging overbought or oversold conditions, supports the positive outlook for the aluminum sector. Tickeron predicts a further increase of more than 4.00% within the next month with a likelihood of 71%. The daily ratio of advancing to declining volumes over the last month stands at 1 to 1.24.
The TrendWeek indicator, a reliable metric for assessing short-term trends, confirms the positive outlook for four stocks in this group with an average likelihood of 78%.
Market Capitalization: The average market capitalization across the group is $2.2 billion, showcasing a balanced mix of large and mid-cap companies. AA leads with a market cap of $4.7 billion, while CENX is at the lower end with $718 million.
High and Low Price Notable News: Weekly price growth across all stocks in the group averaged 9.56%, showcasing the robust performance. However, the monthly and quarterly averages reveal some fluctuations, with an average monthly decline of -8.78% and a quarterly decline of -0.91%. KALU stands out with the highest weekly price growth at 11.78%, while CSTM experienced a notable fall of 6.06%.
Individual Stock Performances:
CENX - A Bearish Sign:
AA - An Upward Trend:
KALU - RSI Indicator Recovery:
Volume Dynamics: While the average weekly volume growth across the group was -5.1%, indicating a slight contraction, the monthly and quarterly averages paint a different picture. The average monthly volume growth was 34.14%, and the average quarterly volume growth was 25.18%, reflecting increased trading activity.
Summary: In summary, the aluminum sector, represented by CENX, AA, KALU, and CSTM, has demonstrated robust recent performance. Despite some short-term fluctuations and individual stock trends, the overall outlook remains positive, supported by technical indicators and historical patterns. Investors should closely monitor individual stock movements and consider the broader market context for informed decision-making in this dynamic sector.
CENX may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In of 32 cases where CENX's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CENX advanced for three days, in of 299 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 186 cases where CENX Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
The 10-day RSI Indicator for CENX moved out of overbought territory on April 23, 2024. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 36 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 36 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 57 cases where CENX's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on April 30, 2024. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on CENX as a result. In of 90 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for CENX turned negative on April 18, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 43 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 43 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CENX declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CENX’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 79, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.466) is normal, around the industry mean (2.093). CENX has a moderately low P/E Ratio (7.240) as compared to the industry average of (21.669). CENX has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.035). P/S Ratio (0.709) is also within normal values, averaging (834.003).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
a producer of primary aluminum and aluminum products
Industry Aluminum