GET DAILY SIGNALSTKO Group Holdings (TKO) Delivers Strong Q3 2026 Earnings with Record EBITDA
Key Takeaways
- TKO Group Holdings reported third quarter 2026 revenue of $1.36 billion, up 21% year over year but slightly below the roughly $1.38 billion consensus estimate.
- Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) came in at $1.33, beating analyst expectations of approximately $1.22.
- Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) surged 54% to a third-quarter record of $555.7 million, with margin expanding to 41% from 32%.
- Net income reached $277.9 million, up sharply from $106.8 million in the prior-year period.
- Management raised full-year 2026 guidance for the second time, but the revenue midpoint still landed slightly below analyst consensus, and shares dipped about 1.8% in after-hours trading.
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Earnings Context and Why It Matters
TKO Group Holdings, the premium sports and entertainment company behind UFC, WWE, IMG, On Location, and PBR, delivered its third-quarter 2026 results against a backdrop of strong secular demand for live events and experiences. The quarter carried added significance because of the ongoing FIFA World Cup 2026 hospitality cycle at On Location, new UFC media-rights momentum under the Skydance distribution agreement, and lingering investor unease tied to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. With the stock down roughly 7% year-to-date heading into the report, this print served as an important test of whether TKO's diversified portfolio could convert favorable industry tailwinds into durable profitability and reassure the market about its growth trajectory.
Breaking Down the Reported Results
TKO posted third quarter 2026 revenue of $1.36 billion, a 21% increase from $1.12 billion a year earlier, but modestly below the $1.38 billion consensus estimate. Adjusted EPS of $1.33 exceeded the roughly $1.22 analysts expected. Net income climbed to $277.9 million from $106.8 million in the prior-year period, while adjusted EBITDA rose 54% to $555.7 million, a third-quarter record, with adjusted EBITDA margin improving to 41% from 32%. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Segment results were mixed but broadly strong. UFC revenue jumped 60% to $519.2 million, driven by higher media-rights fees under the new Skydance agreement and record-setting performance from UFC 329. WWE revenue slipped 1% to $399.3 million due to fewer premium live events, though sponsorship revenue still grew around 30%. IMG revenue increased 16% to $391.3 million, boosted by FIFA World Cup 2026 hospitality sales at On Location. Management also raised full-year 2026 guidance to revenue of $5.790 billion to $5.830 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $2.295 billion to $2.315 billion.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Despite beating on the bottom line, TKO shares fell about 1.8% in after-hours trading following the release. The muted reaction reflected two key concerns. First, revenue of $1.36 billion missed the roughly $1.38 billion consensus, and second, the raised full-year revenue guidance midpoint of $5.81 billion trailed analyst projections of around $5.825 billion. Investors appeared to weigh the strong adjusted EBITDA growth and record margins against softer-than-expected top-line delivery and a guidance range that, while raised, did not fully satisfy consensus. The company's announcement that it intends to repurchase the remaining $936 million under its $3 billion authorization, funded primarily with additional debt and cash, was received as a signal of management confidence but did not fully offset the cautious tone around the guidance midpoint.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
Looking ahead, TKO's raised full-year 2026 outlook now calls for revenue of $5.790 billion to $5.830 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $2.295 billion to $2.315 billion, with management assuming it stages all planned live events, including those in the Middle East. Investors will be watching whether the company can deliver against that range through the seasonally important fourth quarter.
Several factors deserve attention. The FIFA World Cup 2026 hospitality cycle at On Location remains a central driver for the IMG segment, and the pace of related collections and deliveries will influence both revenue and cash flow. UFC's new media-rights distribution agreements, including the Skydance arrangement, should continue supporting media rights and content revenue, though event scheduling and mix can create quarter-to-quarter volatility. WWE's premium live event calendar and sponsorship momentum are also worth monitoring, given that fewer events pressured revenue this quarter.
On the cost side, higher event-related, production, and personnel expenses tied to international expansion and marquee events could pressure margins even as adjusted EBITDA margin improved this quarter. Finally, the execution of the expanded share repurchase program and any changes to the company's leverage profile, as repurchases are partially debt-funded, will be closely watched by both equity and credit investors. These dynamics will help determine whether TKO can sustain its profitability momentum and narrow the gap between reported results and consensus expectations.
Exploring AI Tools for Earnings Analysis
In my view, tools like Tickeron’s AI Screener can add useful perspective when reviewing quarterly results. The platform lets users apply technical patterns, fundamentals, and AI signals to filter ideas across sectors, which I find helpful for putting a name like TKO into broader context without manual effort. It supports custom scans for earnings movers and industry peers, making it a practical addition to traditional research.
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
TKO's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TKO turned positive on October 28, 2026. Looking at past instances where TKO's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 21 of 26 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where TKO's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 7 of 12 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 28, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on TKO as a result. In 37 of 49 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
TKO moved above its 50-day moving average on November 02, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +3.61% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TKO advanced for three days, in 144 of 208 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The 10-day moving average for TKO crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 29, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 3 of 9 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 33%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TKO declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 55%.
TKO broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for TKO entered a downward trend on October 30, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 49 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TKO’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 71 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.030) is normal, around the industry mean (12.946). P/E Ratio (62.193) is within average values for comparable stocks, (39.092). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.523) is also within normal values, averaging (2.376). Dividend Yield (0.017) settles around the average of (0.048) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (7.092) is also within normal values, averaging (2.932).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 73 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 81 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly better than average sales and a considerably profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. TKO’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 77, placing this stock worse than average.
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