GET DAILY SIGNALSTraeger (COOK) Q3 Results: Revenue Falls -40% as Guidance Narrows
Key Takeaways
- Traeger reported third quarter fiscal 2026 revenue of $74.7 million, down 40% year over year and below the roughly $79.4 million consensus estimate.
- Adjusted net loss came in at $6.77 per share, wider than the consensus estimate of a $4.54 per share loss.
- Adjusted EBITDA swung to a $3 million loss from $14 million of income a year earlier, reflecting revenue timing that shifted into the fourth quarter.
- Management narrowed full-year 2026 guidance while holding midpoints steady, pointing to a return to year-over-year revenue growth in Q4.
- Gross margin contracted 5.2 percentage points to 33.5%, pressured by trade-spend timing and softer MEATER smart thermometer sales.
- For additional context on COOK's Major News, Today's Price Move, Price Targets, and Forecasts, explore these pages.
- Explore Trending AI Robots for additional market insights and automated trade ideas.
Why This Quarter Matters for Traeger
Traeger, the category leader in wood pellet grills, has spent 2026 reshaping its business under "Project Gravity," a multiyear effort to simplify operations, cut costs, and build a more durable profit model. I was watching this report closely to see whether those restructuring savings could offset a steep top-line decline and ongoing competitive pressure in its MEATER smart thermometer segment. The quarter arrived as the company works through deliberate channel changes, softer grill demand, and tariff-related uncertainty, making the results a key gauge of whether Traeger's turnaround is tracking toward a more profitable 2027. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
What the Numbers Showed
Traeger reported third quarter fiscal 2026 revenue of $74.7 million, down 40% from $125.4 million in the year-ago period and below the consensus estimate of roughly $79.4 million. Net loss narrowed to $28.5 million, or $10.33 per diluted share, from a net loss of $89.8 million, or $33.46 per diluted share, a year earlier — a period that included a $75 million non-cash goodwill impairment.
Adjusted net loss was $19 million, or $6.77 per diluted share, wider than the consensus estimate of a $4.54 per share loss and compared with an adjusted net loss of $22 million, or $8.31 per share, a year ago. Adjusted EBITDA swung to a $3 million loss from $14 million of income in the prior-year quarter, as management said certain shipments and promotional activity shifted from Q3 into Q4.
By segment, grill revenue fell 48% to $40 million, consumables revenue declined 23% to $19 million, and accessories revenue dropped 34% to $16 million, driven largely by lower MEATER sales. Gross margin contracted 5.2 percentage points to 33.5%.
Traeger narrowed its full-year 2026 outlook, guiding revenue to $440 million to $460 million (previously $435 million to $465 million) and adjusted EBITDA to $59 million to $65 million (previously $57 million to $67 million), while keeping gross margin guidance at 40% to 41%.
How the Market Responded
Heading into the report, sentiment around COOK was cautious, with the stock having declined roughly 19% over the prior three months. The quarter's miss on both revenue and adjusted earnings per share reinforced concerns about soft demand and MEATER competition, while the swing to a negative adjusted EBITDA highlighted how much of the company's profitability is now backloaded into the fourth quarter. At the same time, the narrowed guidance ranges with unchanged midpoints signaled that management still expects a year-over-year revenue rebound in Q4, helping temper the reaction to the headline shortfall.
What to Watch Going Forward
Traeger's guidance implies a return to year-over-year revenue growth in the fourth quarter, driven by the recovery of shipments that slipped out of Q3 and the ramp of its Lowe's channel expansion. Investors will be watching whether that revenue materializes as projected and whether gross margin improves sequentially on better warehousing and trade-spend leverage.
Beyond Q4, the durability of Project Gravity's cost savings, the trajectory of MEATER amid competitive pressure, and the impact of tariffs and transportation costs remain key swing factors. With total debt of $403 million and net debt of $335 million, balance-sheet health and free cash flow generation will also stay in focus as the company works toward a structurally higher-margin business into 2027 and 2028.
Using AI Tools in My Research
When analyzing names like COOK, I often turn to Tickeron’s AI Screener for a quick scan of technical patterns and fundamentals across the consumer discretionary space. It helps surface comparable signals without manual effort, which keeps my workflow efficient when earnings season gets busy.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
COOK in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026
COOK moved above its 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 26 of 26 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where COOK's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 34 of 48 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 28, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on COOK as a result. In 82 of 94 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 87%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for COOK just turned positive on October 27, 2026. Looking at past instances where COOK's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 38 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
Following a +8.22% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where COOK advanced for three days, in 186 of 241 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 3 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The 50-day moving average for COOK moved below the 200-day moving average on October 23, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where COOK declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 89%.
COOK broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 29, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for COOK entered a downward trend on October 06, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 22 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 28 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.852) is normal, around the industry mean (2.565). P/E Ratio (-1.199) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-53.431). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (1.123). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.050) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.273) is also within normal values, averaging (1.671).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 56 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. COOK’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 88 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. COOK’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 81, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 98 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
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