GET DAILY SIGNALSU.S. Physical Therapy (USPH) Delivers Q3 Beat with +12.9% Revenue Growth
Key Takeaways
- U.S. Physical Therapy reported third quarter 2026 revenue of $222.6 million, up 12.9% year over year and above the roughly $214.5 million consensus estimate.
- Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) came in at $0.80, exceeding analyst expectations that ranged near $0.73–$0.76.
- Adjusted EBITDA reached approximately $27.8 million, topping the consensus estimate of about $26.6 million.
- Full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance held near a $104 million midpoint, in line with Wall Street expectations.
- Patient volumes reached a record high, with 72 hospital-affiliated clinics generating $25 million in quarterly revenue.
Why These Results Stand Out
U.S. Physical Therapy operates a network of outpatient physical therapy clinics and industrial injury prevention services, with roughly 799 locations across 45 states. The third-quarter numbers provide a useful snapshot of patient demand, reimbursement trends, and progress on the hospital-affiliation strategy. This comes after several quarters of steady revenue growth even while GAAP earnings faced pressure from acquisition-related adjustments. With Medicare rate shifts and hospital partnerships in focus, the update offered a chance to see whether these efforts were lifting visit counts, revenue per visit, and overall profitability.
The Quarter in Detail
For the three months ended September 30, 2026, USPH posted total net revenue of $222.6 million. That marked a 12.9% rise from $197.1 million a year earlier and came in ahead of the roughly $214.5 million consensus. Adjusted EPS of $0.80 topped the $0.73–$0.76 range analysts had projected, while adjusted EBITDA of about $27.8 million exceeded the $26.6 million estimate and reflected a 12.5% margin. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Record patient visits and higher revenue per visit drove the top line. Management highlighted that 72 clinics under hospital-affiliation agreements contributed $25 million in revenue. On a GAAP basis, net income attributable to shareholders was approximately $11.0 million, down from $13.1 million a year earlier due to acquisition costs and fair-value adjustments that do not affect adjusted results. The company kept its full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance near the $104 million midpoint, matching analyst forecasts.
Market Response and Next Steps
The report landed well because both revenue and adjusted earnings beat expectations while guidance stayed intact. Record visits paired with stronger revenue per visit supported the idea that the hospital-affiliation approach is gaining traction. Shares had already climbed roughly 11% in the three months before the release, indicating investors were positioned for better results. The clearest positive note was the sequential increase in revenue from affiliated clinics, which management expects to expand as referrals grow and more sites join existing agreements.
Items Worth Watching Ahead
Going forward, the pace at which the hospital-affiliation pipeline turns into new clinics and added revenue will be key. The $25 million from 72 clinics this quarter should rise as referral volumes increase and new agreements are added. Labor costs, including salaries, rent, supplies, and contract labor, remain the largest expenses, so wage trends and staffing availability will affect margins. Reimbursement changes, such as Medicare updates and shifts in commercial payer mix, also warrant attention because they directly influence revenue per visit. Acquisition activity can create GAAP volatility through fair-value adjustments, which is why adjusted operating metrics often give a clearer picture of underlying performance.
My Take on Tickeron’s AI Tools
I’ve found Tickeron’s AI Screener helpful for quickly scanning industry peers and spotting patterns that complement traditional earnings analysis. It lets me filter by fundamentals, technical signals, and performance metrics in one place, which speeds up the research process when comparing names like USPH to similar operators. The tool has become a regular part of how I cross-check ideas before earnings season.
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
USPH sees MACD Histogram just turned negative
USPH saw its Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) turn negative on October 28, 2026. This is a bearish signal that suggests the stock could decline going forward. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 42 instances where the indicator turned negative. In 32 of the 42 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a downward move at 76%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for USPH moved out of overbought territory on October 01, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 38 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 22 of the 38 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 58%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 42 of 59 cases where USPH's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where USPH declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 66%.
USPH broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 04, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on USPH as a result. In 62 of 79 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
Following a +2.89% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where USPH advanced for three days, in 217 of 330 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 152 of 254 cases where USPH Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 60%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 1 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 42 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. USPH’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 90 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 96 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.966) is normal, around the industry mean (204.059). USPH's P/E Ratio (524.588) is considerably higher than the industry average of (18.581). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.823) is also within normal values, averaging (2.498). Dividend Yield (0.021) settles around the average of (0.091) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.556) is also within normal values, averaging (2.688).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. USPH’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 82, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
a developer outpatient physical and occupational therapy clinics
Industry HospitalNursingManagement
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