GET DAILY SIGNALSVelo3D (VELO) Stock Falls -40% After Earnings and Guidance Update
Key Takeaways
- Velo3D shares fell roughly 40% over the past 30 days, extending a longer multi-month downtrend in the small-cap industrial technology space.
- Third-quarter 2026 revenue rose about 50% year over year to $20.5 million and beat estimates, but an adjusted loss of $0.34 per share missed analyst expectations.
- Management pushed its positive-EBITDA target from the second half of 2026 out to 2028 and dropped its prior 30%-plus gross margin goal, triggering a sharp post-earnings selloff.
- Several analysts lowered price targets, including Needham ($33 to $12), Cantor Fitzgerald ($17 to $12), and Craig-Hallum ($23 to $11).
- The company reaffirmed full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $65 million to $75 million, with $75.7 million in cash and a $40.1 million backlog as of September 30, 2026.
- Broad risk aversion toward unprofitable, cash-burning growth names compounded the stock-specific decline.
Velo3D (VELO) Company Overview and Market Position
VELO is a metal additive manufacturing, or 3D printing, technology company. It designs and sells its Sapphire family of metal 3D printing systems and provides production print services through its Rapid Production Solutions business. The company targets mission-critical applications requiring complex, high-performance metal parts, serving customers across aerospace, defense, energy, space, and industrial markets. Velo3D is headquartered in Fremont, California, and has been expanding its Livermore Production Campus to support scale. Investors follow the stock for its exposure to defense and aerospace demand, its technology differentiation in printing complex geometries, and its path toward profitability. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Velo3D (VELO) Stock Price Performance: Last 30 Days vs. Quarter
Over the last 30 days, Velo3D shares declined from a closing price of $7.04 on October 14, 2026, to about $4.19, a drop of roughly 40%. The move accelerated in November after third-quarter results, with the stock falling below the $5 level for the first time in its recent trading range.
The broader quarterly trend has been even more pronounced. About three months earlier, in mid-August 2026, shares traded near $16, meaning the stock has lost more than 70% of its value over the last quarter. The decline has been relatively persistent rather than a single-session event, reflecting a steady de-rating as investors reassessed the company's profitability timeline and cash needs. From what I see, reviewing the longer-term charts highlights how quickly sentiment shifted in this space.
What Drove VELO Stock Price in the Last 30 Days
The dominant catalyst was the third-quarter 2026 earnings release on November 10. Revenue of $20.5 million rose approximately 50% year over year and exceeded the consensus estimate of roughly $19.3 million, while gross margin improved to 26.5% from 3.2% a year earlier. However, the company posted an adjusted loss of $0.34 per share, wider than the $0.26 loss analysts expected, and the net loss widened to $16.7 million.
The more consequential disclosure was guidance-related. Management pushed its target for positive EBITDA out to 2028, a delay from the prior expectation of the second half of 2026, and removed its earlier goal of exceeding 30% gross margin. Shares fell roughly 17% to 19% in the sessions following the report. Analysts responded with a wave of price-target reductions: Needham cut its target from $33 to $12, Cantor Fitzgerald from $17 to $12, and Craig-Hallum from $23 to $11, while maintaining Buy or Overweight ratings. The company reaffirmed its 2026 revenue outlook of $65 million to $75 million, but the implied fourth-quarter run-rate suggested slower near-term momentum, reinforcing investor caution. I’m watching this closely as the updated timeline reshapes the investment case.
What Drove VELO Stock Performance Over the Last Quarter
The last quarter's decline reflects a broader narrative shift rather than a single event. After strong top-line growth earlier in 2026, revenue has plateaued sequentially around the $20 million mark, and the path to profitability has repeatedly been pushed further out. Concerns about ongoing cash burn and the potential for future dilution weighed on sentiment, even as the balance sheet improved with $75.7 million in cash and a sharply reduced debt load. Valuation compression across the broader additive manufacturing and small-cap growth sectors added pressure. Positive developments, including a five-year cooperative research agreement with Sandia National Laboratories focused on metal additive manufacturing, were not enough to offset the profitability and capital-return concerns that dominated investor focus.
VELO Stock Forecast Drivers: What Investors Should Watch Next
Investors should monitor Velo3D's upcoming quarterly report for evidence that gross margins continue to expand and that operating losses narrow. Bookings and backlog conversion will be key, given the $28.9 million in new orders reported in the third quarter and the $40.1 million backlog. Progress toward the 2028 positive-EBITDA target, cash burn trends, and any capital-raising or dilution signals are central to the valuation debate. On the demand side, aerospace, defense, and space program activity, along with the Sandia collaboration, could support order momentum. Macroeconomic conditions, interest rates, and sentiment toward unprofitable growth companies will also influence how the stock trades. As with any early-stage technology business, execution risk and the gap between revenue growth and profitability remain the most important variables for investors to evaluate. One thing that stands out is how backlog trends could provide the next clear signal.
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VELO's Stochastic Oscillator entering oversold zone
The Stochastic Oscillator for VELO moved into oversold territory on November 12, 2026. Be on the watch for the price uptrend or consolidation in the future. At that time, consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator entered the oversold zone -- be on the watch for VELO's price rising or consolidating in the future. That's also the time to consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Following a +28.72% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where VELO advanced for three days, in 203 of 242 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 84%.
VELO may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for VELO turned negative on November 12, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 36 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 34 of the 36 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 90%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where VELO declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
The Aroon Indicator for VELO entered a downward trend on November 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 31 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.224) is normal, around the industry mean (-6.197). P/E Ratio (-2.514) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-3.670). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (23.994). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.012) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.039) is also within normal values, averaging (51.774).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 92 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. VELO’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 98 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 98 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. VELO’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 91, placing this stock worse than average.
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