GET DAILY SIGNALSVermilion Energy (VET) Q3 2026 Results: Revenue Rises 29% Even as Net Loss Appears
Key Takeaways
- Vermilion Energy posted a Q3 2026 net loss of C$34.6 million, or C$0.23 per diluted share, reversing a C$2.6 million profit a year earlier.
- The loss was driven by unrealized, non-cash losses on derivative instruments, partly offset by stronger European gas and crude oil prices.
- Petroleum and natural gas revenue climbed 29% year over year to C$565.8 million, even as production slipped to 117,349 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d).
- Fund flows from operations (a key cash-flow measure) came in at C$236.9 million, or C$1.55 per diluted share, versus C$253.8 million a year ago.
- Management introduced a 2027 exploration and development (E&D) capital budget of C$675 million to C$725 million, with production guidance of 122,000–126,000 boe/d.
- The company plans a 4% increase to its quarterly cash dividend, lifting it to C$0.14 per share, subject to board approval.
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Earnings Context and Why It Matters
Vermilion Energy is a Canadian international oil and gas producer with assets spanning North America, Europe, and Australia. Its third-quarter 2026 report carries outsized weight because it arrives alongside the integration of recently acquired German assets and the rollout of a fresh 2027 capital plan. Investors were watching closely for signs that operational momentum, European gas pricing, and cost discipline could sustain the company's improved cash-flow profile and shareholder returns. The quarter was marked by planned maintenance activity, including a turnaround at the Corrib field, which temporarily curbed output. Against that backdrop, the results offered an important read on how Vermilion is balancing near-term production with longer-term growth and debt reduction. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Reported Results
Vermilion Energy reported a third-quarter 2026 net loss of C$34.6 million, or C$0.23 per diluted share, compared with a profit of C$2.6 million, or C$0.02 per diluted share, in the same period a year earlier. The swing was primarily attributable to unrealized, non-cash losses on derivative instruments, which offset the benefit of elevated European gas and crude oil prices. Petroleum and natural gas revenue rose to C$565.8 million from C$437.1 million, an increase of roughly 29%.
Production totaled 117,349 boe/d, down from 119,062 boe/d in the prior-year quarter, reflecting planned maintenance and downtime. Fund flows from operations reached C$236.9 million, or C$1.55 per diluted share, compared with C$253.8 million, or C$1.64 per diluted share, a year earlier. Alongside the results, management introduced a 2027 E&D capital budget of C$675 million to C$725 million and projected fourth-quarter 2026 production of about 121,000 boe/d, bringing full-year output to approximately 122,400 boe/d.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
The market responded negatively to the headline loss. Vermilion shares fell roughly 11% to 12% following the release, as the derivative-driven swing overshadowed otherwise solid revenue growth and resilient cash flows. The decline highlights how sensitive energy equities remain to reported earnings per share (EPS) even when the underlying operational performance is steady. Sentiment was further shaped by the gap between reported results and consensus expectations, with the headline EPS figure missing estimates by a wide margin. At the same time, the company's confirmation of a higher 2027 dividend and a detailed capital plan signaled management confidence in the durability of its free cash flow, leaving investors to weigh near-term volatility against the longer-term outlook.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
Looking ahead, investors should focus on execution against the newly announced 2027 plan. Management guided to E&D capital spending of C$675 million to C$725 million, with a larger portion of that budget directed toward European gas and Brent-linked international projects intended to support production beyond 2027. Production guidance of 122,000 to 126,000 boe/d implies modest growth, and the company has pointed to elevated European gas prices as a tailwind into the fourth quarter and 2027.
Key factors to monitor include the pace of the German asset integration, progress on drilling programs in Germany, the Netherlands, and Australia, and any shifts in realized pricing across the portfolio. Cost trends, base decline rates, and capital efficiency will also matter, since management is aiming to structurally improve excess free cash flow while continuing debt reduction.
Finally, the planned 4% dividend increase to C$0.14 per share, subject to board approval in March, will be a focal point for income-focused investors. Commodity price movements, particularly in European natural gas and Brent-linked crude, remain the primary external drivers of near-term results. As always, investors should watch how these variables evolve rather than relying on any single quarter's outcome.
Exploring Tickeron’s AI Tools for Deeper Analysis
In my own research process I often turn to Tickeron’s AI Screener when evaluating energy names like this one. The tool lets me quickly filter for comparable companies using technical patterns, fundamentals, and AI signals, which helps put VET’s results in broader context without spending hours on manual screens. It has become a regular part of how I generate and refine trade ideas.
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
VET sees MACD Histogram just turned negative
VET saw its Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) turn negative on November 02, 2026. This is a bearish signal that suggests the stock could decline going forward. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 50 instances where the indicator turned negative. In 41 of the 50 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a downward move at 82%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for VET moved out of overbought territory on October 27, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 35 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 23 of the 35 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 66%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 02, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on VET as a result. In 70 of 90 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 78%.
VET moved below its 50-day moving average on November 02, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where VET declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 74%.
VET broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 13, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold zone. Keep an eye out for a move up in the foreseeable future.
The 10-day moving average for VET crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 19, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 10 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
Following a +4.83% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where VET advanced for three days, in 230 of 318 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 181 of 236 cases where VET Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 77%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 28 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.875) is normal, around the industry mean (3.719). P/E Ratio (-4.269) is within average values for comparable stocks, (4.017). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.030) is also within normal values, averaging (1.958). Dividend Yield (0.031) settles around the average of (0.046) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.349) is also within normal values, averaging (5.980).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 39 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. VET’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 94 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. VET’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 73, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 95 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 98 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
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General Information
a company that explores and produces oil and natural gas
Industry OilGasProduction
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