GET DAILY SIGNALSWaste Connections (WCN) Delivers a Solid Third-Quarter Beat
Key Takeaways
- Waste Connections reported third quarter 2026 revenue of $2.64 billion, up 7.3% year over year and ahead of the roughly $2.61 billion consensus estimate.
- Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) came in at $1.58, up from $1.44 a year earlier and above the $1.52 analyst consensus.
- Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) reached approximately $895.8 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of about 34%.
- Management raised its full-year 2026 revenue outlook to about $10.09 billion at the midpoint and reiterated adjusted free cash flow guidance of at least $1.4 billion.
- Shares traded higher by roughly 3% immediately following the release, reflecting a positive initial market response to the beat-and-raise quarter.
Why the Quarter Matters
Waste Connections, North America's third-largest solid waste services company, has earned a track record of steady execution in collection, disposal, and recycling. The third-quarter 2026 results provide a useful check on whether the company can maintain its pricing discipline and margin expansion even as economic conditions and commodity-linked revenues shift. For investors, the report offers insight into landfill volumes, solid waste trends, and free cash flow generation, which remain central to long-term earnings growth and the company's capacity to pursue acquisitions while supporting shareholder returns.
Breaking Down the Reported Numbers
For the three months ended September 30, 2026, Waste Connections posted revenue of $2.64 billion, a 7.3% rise from $2.46 billion a year earlier and above the consensus estimate near $2.61 billion. Adjusted EPS increased to $1.58 from $1.44 in the prior-year quarter, topping the $1.52 consensus and representing roughly a 4% beat.
Adjusted EBITDA reached about $895.8 million, translating to an adjusted EBITDA margin of 34%. Operating margin expanded to 20.5% from 17.9% in the same quarter last year. Net income rose to approximately $359.2 million from $286.3 million in the third quarter of 2025.
Chief Executive Officer Ronald J. Mittelstaedt called the period "another top to bottom beat," pointing to strong operational execution, better landfill activity, and a 70-basis-point sequential improvement in solid waste unit volumes. Management noted that it navigated a late-quarter increase in diesel prices while still delivering the margin performance. On guidance, the company lifted its full-year 2026 revenue midpoint to roughly $10.09 billion from a prior level near $10.04 billion and reaffirmed its target for at least $1.4 billion in adjusted free cash flow.
I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Market Reaction to the Results
Shares responded positively right after the release, rising about 3% to around $173 according to financial data providers. Investors appeared to appreciate the combination of revenue and EPS beats along with the upward revision to full-year revenue guidance and the reaffirmed free cash flow target. The quarter underscored that Waste Connections' pricing power and cost control remain in place despite fuel cost swings and variable commodity revenues. As is often the case with earnings, short-term price action can also reflect broader market sentiment, but the underlying results were viewed as constructive.
Key Factors to Monitor Ahead
Looking forward, attention will likely center on whether Waste Connections can sustain its margin path through the rest of 2026 and into 2027. The full-year revenue midpoint of about $10.09 billion and the adjusted free cash flow target of at least $1.4 billion set a clear benchmark for the fourth quarter.
Volume trends will remain important. The sequential gain in solid waste unit volumes was encouraging, and any further improvement in landfill activity or energy-related exploration and production waste could provide additional support. Commodity-driven revenues and recycled commodity prices, however, can vary from quarter to quarter.
Cost pressures also warrant watching. Diesel prices rose sharply late in the quarter and could weigh on margins if they stay elevated, although the company's history of offsetting such costs through pricing and efficiency is well established. Acquisitions continue to offer potential upside, as completed deals can add to revenue and cash flow. Finally, capital allocation decisions around acquisitions, dividends, share repurchases, and leverage will stay relevant for assessing the sustainability of double-digit adjusted free cash flow growth.
Integrating AI Tools into Earnings Analysis
From what I see, tools like Tickeron’s AI Screener can help quickly compare a company's fundamentals and technical signals against peers when evaluating quarterly results. I find it useful for spotting patterns in volume trends or margin consistency across the waste services sector without spending hours on manual screens.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
WCN in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026
WCN moved above its 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 23 of 44 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 52%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 14, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on WCN as a result. In 41 of 87 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 47%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for WCN just turned positive on October 06, 2026. Looking at past instances where WCN's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 19 of 40 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 47%.
Following a +7.07% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where WCN advanced for three days, in 146 of 325 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 45%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 4 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The 50-day moving average for WCN moved below the 200-day moving average on September 30, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where WCN declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 48%.
WCN broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for WCN entered a downward trend on October 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. WCN’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 52 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 78, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 61 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 80 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.344) is normal, around the industry mean (47.618). P/E Ratio (40.549) is within average values for comparable stocks, (52.442). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.507) is also within normal values, averaging (1.132). Dividend Yield (0.008) settles around the average of (0.016) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.102) is also within normal values, averaging (72.867).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 84 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
Notable companies
Industry description
Market Cap
High and low price notable news
Volume
Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
Advertisement
General Information
a provider of waste collection, transfer, disposal and recycling services
Industry EnvironmentalServices
Advertisement