GET DAILY SIGNALSWhy Is Castellum, Inc. (CTM) Stock Down -20.86% Today?
Key Takeaways
- Shares of Castellum fell roughly 20.86% in Thursday's session, trading near $0.3749 versus a prior close of $0.4737.
- The decline was driven by a third-quarter 2026 earnings miss: the company posted a net loss and revenue that fell short of analyst expectations.
- Revenue came in at $14.7 million, below the roughly $16.9 million consensus, while EPS of -$0.01 missed the $0.01 estimate.
- A sequential decline in total backlog added to investor concerns about near-term revenue visibility.
- The move reflects sector-specific weakness in a small-cap defense-tech name rather than a broad-market selloff.
- For deeper insight into this name, explore our Price Targets, Earnings, and Forecast pages.
- Curious how AI evaluates setups like this? Explore Trending AI Robots to see the strategies currently leading Tickeron's lineup.
Opening Summary
Castellum, Inc. (CTM), a Vienna, Virginia-based provider of cybersecurity, electronic warfare, and software engineering services to U.S. federal government customers, saw its shares plunge in Thursday's trading. The stock traded near $0.3749, down approximately 20.86% from the prior session's close of $0.4737. The selloff followed the company's third-quarter 2026 earnings release, which missed analyst expectations on both the top and bottom lines, prompting investors to reprice the stock sharply lower.
Earnings Miss Drives the Selloff
The primary catalyst behind the decline was a disappointing third-quarter report. Castellum posted a GAAP net loss of roughly $0.5 million, or -$0.01 per share, a swing from a profit of about $0.4 million in the prior-year period and below the $0.01 per-share profit analysts had projected. Revenue of $14.7 million represented only modest year-over-year growth and fell well short of the approximately $16.9 million consensus estimate. Rising operating expenses and a lower gross margin year over year further pressured results, translating into an operating loss for the quarter.
Backlog Declines and Growth Visibility
Beyond the headline miss, investors focused on the company's order metrics. Total backlog stood at $254.5 million, down about 6.3% from the prior quarter, even as management pointed to an opportunity pipeline of roughly $1.66 billion. The sequential dip in backlog raised questions about the pace at which new contracts would convert into recognized revenue, adding a second layer of concern to an already negative market reaction.
Market Context and Trading Activity
The move in CTM was driven primarily by company-specific news rather than a broad-market shift. As a micro-cap defense technology and services provider, the stock tends to exhibit outsized price swings around earnings, and Thursday's decline came on elevated trading activity as investors digested the results. The selloff also pushed the shares into technically weaker territory, extending a pattern of underperformance that has weighed on the name in recent quarters.
What Comes Next for CTM
Looking ahead, investors will monitor whether Castellum can convert its sizable opportunity pipeline into booked revenue and restore sequential backlog growth. Management has emphasized a debt-free balance sheet with more than $15.7 million in cash and continues to signal acquisition-driven expansion, but execution on existing prime contracts and the timing of new awards remain key uncertainties. With the stock trading well below recent levels, the market will look for evidence in upcoming quarters that revenue growth can accelerate and that margins can recover before assigning the shares a firmer footing.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron offers hundreds of AI-powered trading bots that monitor thousands of tickers, but only the strongest performers under current market conditions are featured in the curated Trending AI Robots section. These bots vary by strategy, timeframe, performance metrics, and traded symbols, giving traders a way to explore data-driven approaches to active markets. Visit the page to see which strategies are currently leading the lineup.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
CTM in -5.78% downward trend, falling for three consecutive days on November 02, 2026
Moving lower for three straight days is viewed as a bearish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future declines. Considering data from situations where CTM declined for three days, in 302 of 341 cases, the price declined further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 89%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 05, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on CTM as a result. In 76 of 86 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 88%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for CTM turned negative on October 12, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 42 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 36 of the 42 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 86%.
The Aroon Indicator for CTM entered a downward trend on November 05, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator entered the oversold zone -- be on the watch for CTM's price rising or consolidating in the future. That's also the time to consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 18 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +2.94% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CTM advanced for three days, in 191 of 228 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 84%.
CTM may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 14 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.251) is normal, around the industry mean (2.873). P/E Ratio (-15.790) is within average values for comparable stocks, (18.687). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (2.284). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.239) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.076) is also within normal values, averaging (139.965).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 18 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 84 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. CTM’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 93 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. CTM’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 93, placing this stock worse than average.
Notable companies
Industry description
Market Cap
High and low price notable news
Volume
Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
Advertisement
General Information
Industry InformationTechnologyServices
Advertisement