GET DAILY SIGNALSWhy Is Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) Stock Up +12.05% Today?
Key Takeaways
- Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) shares surged more than 12% after the steelmaker reported third-quarter earnings that topped profit estimates and issued a far stronger-than-expected outlook.
- The primary catalyst was an earnings-driven move: adjusted EPS of $0.28 beat consensus, and adjusted EBITDA of $612 million exceeded the company's own prior guidance.
- The standout driver was 2027 guidance calling for adjusted EBITDA above $4 billion, roughly 50% higher than Wall Street's prior consensus near $2.6 billion.
- Fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA guidance of about $715 million also came in above analyst expectations, reinforcing the bullish tone.
- Peers NUE and STLD rose more modestly, indicating the move was largely company-specific rather than a broad sector rally.
- Traders are now watching whether the stock holds its breakout levels and how steel prices and trade policy evolve through the fourth quarter.
Opening Summary
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF), the Cleveland-based flat-rolled steel producer and one of North America's largest steelmakers, saw its stock jump roughly 12.05% in Monday's session after delivering third-quarter results and forward guidance that materially exceeded market expectations. The stock traded around $13.58, up from a prior close of $12.12, confirming a sharp upward move. Markets attributed the rally primarily to better-than-expected profitability and, most notably, a 2027 earnings outlook that dramatically reset investor expectations for the company's earnings power.
Earnings Beat and Profit Turnaround
The quarter marked a meaningful inflection for CLF. The company reported adjusted earnings of $0.28 per share, ahead of the roughly $0.22 consensus estimate and a swing from the year-ago loss. Revenue rose about 18% year over year to $5.612 billion, though it came in slightly short of forecasts. More importantly, adjusted EBITDA climbed to $612 million, up from $286 million in the prior quarter and above the company's own guidance of $575 million. Steel shipments increased to 4.2 million net tons, while the average selling price rose to $1,177 per net ton from $1,032 a year earlier, reflecting a firmer pricing environment and reduced import competition.
Blowout 2027 Guidance Drives the Rally
While the quarterly beat was constructive, the decisive catalyst behind the price rally was forward guidance. Cleveland-Cliffs said it now expects adjusted EBITDA to exceed $4 billion in 2027, based on new customer contracts already signed and prevailing steel price forecasts. That projection is dramatically higher than the roughly $2.6 billion analysts had been modeling, signaling stronger pricing power and more favorable contract resets than the market anticipated. For the near term, the company guided fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA to approximately $715 million, above the approximately $688 million consensus, as higher realized pricing offsets seasonal softness and planned maintenance outages.
Debt Reduction and Stelco Developments
Management also emphasized balance-sheet progress, citing amplified free cash flow in the fourth quarter and property sale proceeds as a path to "major debt reduction." The company reaffirmed its target of reducing net debt-to-EBITDA below 2.5x by mid-2027, backed by $3.2 billion in liquidity at quarter-end. Separately, Cleveland-Cliffs said its Stelco subsidiary had its strongest quarter since the 2024 acquisition, while the company indefinitely idled Stelco's galvanizing lines amid oversupply in Canada, shifting production toward hot-rolled steel to preserve jobs and improve EBITDA contributions.
Market Context and Trading Activity
The move in CLF was accompanied by elevated trading volume, consistent with an earnings-driven repricing. The rally was notably stronger than the broader steel complex, with peers such as NUE and STLD posting only modest gains, indicating that the advance reflected company-specific catalysts rather than broad sector momentum. From a technical standpoint, the surge pushed the stock through key short-term resistance levels that had capped it through a consolidation stretching back to early summer, placing the shares near their 52-week highs and above longer-term moving averages.
What Comes Next for CLF
Investors will now focus on whether CLF can sustain the momentum behind its bullish guidance. Key factors include the trajectory of domestic steel prices and hot-rolled coil benchmarks, the pace of debt reduction, and execution on the newly signed customer contracts underpinning the 2027 outlook. Trade policy remains a swing factor, as tariffs and restrained import volumes have supported domestic pricing, while the Canadian government's scrutiny of Stelco employment commitments adds a layer of regulatory uncertainty. Analysts are likely to revisit their estimates in the wake of the sharply higher 2027 EBITDA forecast. Risks include potential softening in steel prices if supply catches up with demand, as well as the company's still-elevated debt load.
Trending AI Robots
For traders looking to identify opportunities across the market, Tickeron's Trending AI Robots page offers a curated view of AI-driven trading strategies. Tickeron provides hundreds of AI trading bots covering thousands of tickers, but only the strongest performers under current market conditions are featured in this section. The bots vary by strategy, timeframe, performance metrics, and the symbols they trade, giving users a diverse set of approaches to explore. Visit Trending AI Robots to discover which automated strategies are leading the market today.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Contributor
Financial writer and active order flow futures trader with a focus on fundamental analysis, macroeconomic factors, and equity research. I make in-depth blogs on stocks and ETFs, bridging the gap between raw market data and real-world trading decisions.
CLF in -3.66% downward trend, declining for three consecutive days on October 16, 2026
Moving lower for three straight days is viewed as a bearish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future declines. Considering data from situations where CLF declined for three days, in 255 of 306 cases, the price declined further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 83%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 52 of 65 cases where CLF's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 80%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 09, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on CLF as a result. In 63 of 78 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CLF just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where CLF's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 38 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
CLF moved above its 50-day moving average on October 05, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for CLF crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 13, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 13 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
The 50-day moving average for CLF moved above the 200-day moving average on September 18, 2026. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
Following a +7.63% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CLF advanced for three days, in 260 of 322 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
CLF may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 177 of 216 cases where CLF Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 82%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 22 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.234) is normal, around the industry mean (2.171). P/E Ratio (-7.623) is within average values for comparable stocks, (34.715). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.010) is also within normal values, averaging (0.339). Dividend Yield (0.020) settles around the average of (0.060) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.346) is also within normal values, averaging (2.301).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CLF’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 54 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 94 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. CLF’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 67, placing this stock worse than average.
Notable companies
Industry description
Market Cap
High and low price notable news
Volume
Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
Advertisement
General Information
a miner of iron ore
Industry Steel
Advertisement