GET DAILY SIGNALSWhy Is Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) Stock Up +9.74% Today?
Key Takeaways
- Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) surged roughly 9.74% in Monday's session, rising about $1.18 to trade near $13.30 versus a prior close of $12.12.
- The move was driven by stronger-than-expected third-quarter earnings and a sharply higher outlook, headlined by a 2027 adjusted EBITDA forecast of more than $4 billion.
- Adjusted earnings of $0.28 per share beat estimates, and adjusted EBITDA of $612 million topped the company's own prior guidance of $575 million.
- The company guided fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA to approximately $715 million and reiterated plans for significant debt reduction.
- Traders are watching whether the gains hold through the session and how peers such as NUE and STLD trade ahead of upcoming steel-sector results.
Opening Summary
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF), one of North America's largest flat-rolled steel producers, is rallying sharply in Monday's trading after the company reported its strongest quarterly result in three years and issued an outlook well above Wall Street's expectations. Shares were up roughly 9.74%, climbing about $1.18 to trade near $13.30 after closing the prior session at $12.12. The advance is an earnings-driven move, with markets citing a profit beat, improving steel pricing, and — most importantly — a 2027 guidance range that dramatically exceeded consensus forecasts.
Third-Quarter Earnings and Guidance
The primary catalyst behind the rally was Cleveland-Cliffs' third-quarter report, released before the market opened. The company posted adjusted earnings of $0.28 per share, ahead of analyst estimates that clustered around $0.22, marking a return to profitability after a period of losses. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $612 million, up from $286 million in the second quarter and above the company's own $575 million guidance. Revenue rose 18% year over year to about $5.6 billion, though it narrowly missed consensus expectations.
Driving the improvement were higher selling prices and increased shipments. The average net selling price climbed to roughly $1,177 per net ton, up from $1,032 a year earlier, while steel shipments increased to 4.2 million net tons. CEO Lourenco Goncalves described the quarter as the company's strongest in three years, crediting favorable moves in price, volume, mix, and unit costs.
2027 Outlook Fuels the Rally
The magnitude of the share-price move reflects more than the quarterly beat. Cleveland-Cliffs guided to fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA of approximately $715 million, above analyst forecasts, but the standout figure was its projection for 2027 adjusted EBITDA exceeding $4 billion, based on new customer contracts and prevailing price forecasts. That is far above the roughly $2.6 billion consensus that had been in place before the announcement.
The bullish guidance reflects management's view that domestic steel prices remain well supported, with imports running well below historical levels, longer lead times, and customers increasingly prioritizing reliable North American supply chains. Analysts viewed the 2027 figure as the key driver of the gap higher, given how far it sits above prior expectations.
Balance Sheet and Stelco Developments
The report also reinforced a broader deleveraging narrative. The company ended the quarter with $3.2 billion in liquidity and reiterated plans to use amplified free cash flow and proceeds from property sales to achieve a "major debt reduction" in the fourth quarter, keeping it on track toward a net leverage target below 2.5 times EBITDA by mid-2027.
Separately, Cleveland-Cliffs said its Canadian subsidiary Stelco delivered its strongest quarter since being acquired, even as the company indefinitely idled Stelco's galvanizing lines amid persistent oversupply in Canada's galvanized steel market. Management said Stelco would maintain overall production by shifting focus to hot-rolled steel, a move expected to boost EBITDA contributions while preserving roughly 2,000 Canadian jobs.
Market Context and Trading Activity
The rally in CLF stands out relative to the broader steel complex. Peers such as Nucor and Steel Dynamics traded more modestly, indicating that the move was largely company-specific rather than a broad sector repricing. Trading activity was heavy as investors absorbed the results, consistent with an event-driven repricing following the earnings release.
The advance also carried the stock through key technical levels, with shares clearing a consolidation range that had formed over recent months. Cleveland-Cliffs entered the session down roughly 9% year to date, and the sharp move lifted the stock well above its recent 20-day and 50-day moving averages, which had been acting as near-term resistance.
What Comes Next for CLF
Investors will now assess whether the company's upbeat 2027 guidance is sustainable, with attention turning to steel-price trends, contract resets, and the pace of debt reduction over the coming quarters. The outlook remains sensitive to steel import policy, North American demand from automotive and construction end markets, and the resolution of labor negotiations with the United Steelworkers.
Risks include potential softening in steel prices if supply catches up with demand, execution around the Stelco restructuring, and the leverage still carried on the balance sheet. Upcoming sector earnings from steel producers and broader macroeconomic data on industrial activity will provide the next checkpoints for the thesis, as will any further commentary from management on the trajectory toward its 2027 targets.
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
CLF in -3.66% downward trend, declining for three consecutive days on October 16, 2026
Moving lower for three straight days is viewed as a bearish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future declines. Considering data from situations where CLF declined for three days, in 255 of 306 cases, the price declined further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 83%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 52 of 65 cases where CLF's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 80%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 09, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on CLF as a result. In 63 of 78 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CLF just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where CLF's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 38 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
CLF moved above its 50-day moving average on October 05, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for CLF crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 13, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 13 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
The 50-day moving average for CLF moved above the 200-day moving average on September 18, 2026. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
Following a +7.63% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CLF advanced for three days, in 260 of 322 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
CLF may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 177 of 216 cases where CLF Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 82%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 22 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.234) is normal, around the industry mean (2.171). P/E Ratio (-7.623) is within average values for comparable stocks, (34.715). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.010) is also within normal values, averaging (0.339). Dividend Yield (0.020) settles around the average of (0.060) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.346) is also within normal values, averaging (2.301).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CLF’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 54 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 94 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. CLF’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 67, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
a miner of iron ore
Industry Steel
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