GET DAILY SIGNALSWhy Is Velo3D (VELO) Stock Down -3.67% Today?
Key Takeaways
- Velo3D (VELO) shares fell 3.67% to $4.72, extending a sharp post-earnings selloff that began after third-quarter results.
- The decline follows mixed Q3 2026 results: revenue of $20.45 million beat estimates, but an adjusted loss of $0.34 per share missed the consensus forecast.
- Management reset its profitability timeline, pushing its positive EBITDA target from the second half of 2026 out to 2028 and dropping its prior "greater than 30%" gross margin outlook.
- Several analysts slashed price targets, including Needham (from $33 to $12) and Cantor Fitzgerald (from $17 to $12), adding to bearish sentiment.
- Broader pressure on small-cap and additive-manufacturing names has compounded the stock-specific weakness.
- Traders are watching upcoming bookings-to-revenue conversion and the company's next earnings release for signs of stabilization.
- For deeper insight into this stock, explore its Price Targets, Earnings, and Forecast pages for additional data and analysis.
- Looking for automated trading ideas? Check out the Trending AI Robots page to see the strongest-performing bots under current market conditions.
Opening Summary
VELO — the ticker for Velo3D, Inc., a Fremont, California-based developer of metal additive-manufacturing (3D printing) systems for aerospace, defense, space, and energy customers — extended its losses in Thursday's session, sliding 3.67% to $4.72 from a prior close of $4.90. The decline represents a continuation of the heavy selling that followed the company's third-quarter earnings report and a wave of analyst price-target cuts, leaving the shares near the lower end of their recent trading range.
Mixed Third-Quarter Results
The primary catalyst behind the move remains the company's Q3 2026 earnings release, reported after the market close on November 10. Velo3D delivered revenue of $20.45 million, up roughly 50% year over year and ahead of the $19.34 million analysts expected, while gross margin improved sharply to 26.5% from 3.2% a year earlier. However, the company posted an adjusted loss of $0.34 per share, wider than the $0.26 loss Wall Street had projected, as operating expenses climbed on investments tied to its Livermore production campus. The earnings-driven move accelerated as investors weighed the stronger top line against the wider-than-expected loss and mounting spending.
Guidance Reset and Delayed Profitability
Weighing more heavily on sentiment was a meaningful reset in the company's forward outlook. Velo3D reaffirmed its full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $65 million to $75 million, but management walked back key profitability targets. The company no longer expects "greater than 30%" gross margin in the second half of 2026, instead guiding only for sequential gross-margin improvement, and it pushed its expectation for positive EBITDA from the second half of 2026 to 2028. That delay — combined with a shift of a substantial portion of planned capital expenditures into 2027 — reinforced investor concerns about the pace of the company's path toward sustained profitability.
Analyst Price-Target Cuts
The bearish reaction was amplified by a series of analyst downgrades in the form of price-target reductions. Needham maintained a Buy rating but slashed its target from $33 to $12, while Cantor Fitzgerald kept an Overweight rating and cut its target from $17 to $12. Additional firms trimmed targets as well, citing lower-than-expected margins and the delayed profitability timeline. Even though several analysts retained constructive long-term ratings, the magnitude of the target cuts signaled reduced near-term conviction and pressured the shares.
Market Context and Trading Activity
Trading in VELO has been highly volatile in recent sessions, with the stock falling sharply from its 52-week high of $31.75 and trading well below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Volume has been elevated relative to the stock's average, reflecting heavy institutional repositioning following the earnings report. The weakness in the metal additive-manufacturing space and broader small-cap industrial technology names has compounded the stock-specific selling, with VELO diverging from the relative stability seen in large-cap benchmarks.
What Comes Next for VELO
Looking ahead, investors will focus on the company's ability to convert its growing backlog — which included $28.9 million in new bookings, exceeding quarterly revenue — into realized sales, and on whether the Livermore production campus ramps efficiently. Key risks include continued cash burn, potential future dilution given the company's financing history, and execution on the reset 2028 profitability timeline. Upcoming earnings, order-flow updates, and any further analyst revisions will be closely watched as catalysts that could either stabilize the stock or extend the decline.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron offers hundreds of AI-powered trading bots covering thousands of tickers, but only the strongest performers under current market conditions are featured in its curated Trending AI Robots section. These bots vary by strategy, timeframe, performance metrics, and the symbols they trade, giving traders a data-driven way to screen for actionable ideas. Explore the page to see which automated strategies are currently outperforming.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
VELO in -21.35% downward trend, declining for three consecutive days on November 11, 2026
Moving lower for three straight days is viewed as a bearish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future declines. Considering data from situations where VELO declined for three days, in 299 of 328 cases, the price declined further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Aroon Indicator for VELO entered a downward trend on November 11, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where VELO's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 28 of 35 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 80%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 51 of 63 cases where VELO's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for VELO just turned positive on November 09, 2026. Looking at past instances where VELO's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 30 of 35 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 86%.
Following a +28.72% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where VELO advanced for three days, in 203 of 242 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 84%.
VELO may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 31 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.224) is normal, around the industry mean (-6.197). P/E Ratio (-2.514) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-3.670). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (23.994). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.012) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.039) is also within normal values, averaging (51.774).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 66 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. VELO’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 98 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. VELO’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 91, placing this stock worse than average.
Notable companies
Industry description
Market Cap
High and low price notable news
Volume
Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
Advertisement
General Information
Industry ComputerProcessingHardware
Advertisement