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AA vs KALU
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Alcoa Corporation (AA) vs. Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both AA and KALU have delivered exceptional one-year returns exceeding 180%, driven by aluminum supply disruptions and rising metal prices.
- KALU outperforms in recent market activity with approximately 34% monthly gains compared to AA's 18%.
- AA, the larger company by market cap at $17.5 billion, faced a Q1 earnings miss amid alumina challenges, while KALU sustains positive analyst revisions.
- KALU offers a higher dividend yield around 2%, appealing to income-focused investors.
- Aluminum sector tailwinds from geopolitical tensions favor both, but KALU's downstream focus provides relative stability.
- Tickeron's AI tools highlight momentum edges for KALU in current conditions.
Introduction
Alcoa Corporation (AA) and Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) are key players in the aluminum industry, navigating a volatile landscape shaped by supply chain disruptions and demand from aerospace and automotive sectors. This comparison analyzes their recent performance, business models, and market positioning to help traders and investors gauge relative strengths amid rising metal prices and geopolitical influences. Sector enthusiasts, commodity traders, and those tracking industrial metals will find insights into momentum, risks, and potential trade-offs between these stocks.
AA Overview and Recent Performance
Alcoa Corporation (AA) operates across the aluminum value chain, from bauxite mining and alumina refining to primary aluminum production. In recent weeks, AA stock has traded around $66, reflecting a year-to-date gain of about 25% and a one-year surge over 188%, with a 52-week range of $23.57 to $75.70. Sentiment has been influenced by Q1 results showing adjusted EPS of $1.40 missing estimates, revenue down 7% due to lower shipments amid alumina pressures from Middle East tensions. Higher aluminum prices and supply concerns from Iran-related events provided offsets, though shares dipped post-earnings before stabilizing. Analysts maintain a consensus price target near $73, citing long-term positioning in volatile mining dynamics.
KALU Overview and Recent Performance
Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) specializes in fabricated aluminum products for aerospace, automotive, and packaging applications. Trading near $152, KALU has posted year-to-date returns around 33% and one-year gains over 192%, within a 52-week range of $53 to $152. Recent market activity shows robust momentum with monthly advances of about 34%, bolstered by analyst upgrades including price target hikes to $137-$150 and overweight initiations. A steady quarterly dividend of $0.77 underscores financial confidence ahead of upcoming earnings. Geopolitical supply risks have similarly lifted sentiment, with KALU's downstream exposure offering resilience against raw material volatility.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
AA’s integrated upstream model exposes it more directly to bauxite and alumina fluctuations, contrasting KALU’s focus on value-added fabricating for end-markets like aerospace. Growth drivers overlap in automotive electrification and aviation recovery, but KALU benefits from packaging demand stability. Recent momentum favors KALU with sharper short-term gains, while AA’s larger $17B market cap provides liquidity. Risk factors include commodity price swings for both, though AA’s higher beta (1.7 vs. 1.4) signals greater volatility. Market sentiment tilts toward KALU on analyst enthusiasm, but AA holds scale advantages in global exposure.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently leans toward KALU based on superior recent trend consistency, monthly momentum outpacing AA, and positive catalyst buildup ahead of earnings. While AA offers broader scale and aluminum price leverage, KALU’s relative stability and higher yield enhance probabilistic appeal in the near term amid sector tailwinds.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AA is a StrongBuy and KALU is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AA’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileKALU’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- AA’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- KALU’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AA’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while KALU’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AA’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 7 bearish.
- KALU’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 2 bearish.
Price Growth
AA (@Aluminum) experienced а -9.06% price change this week, while KALU (@Aluminum) price change was +0.87% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Aluminum industry was -4.43%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -8.19%, and the average quarterly price growth was +44.48%.
Reported Earning Dates
AA is expected to report earnings on Jul 16, 2026.
KALU is expected to report earnings on Jul 23, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Aluminum (-4.43% weekly)Aluminum is widely used in the industries like construction, packaging and automotive sector. The segment has seen increased demand for the lightweight variety in automobiles in improving fuel efficiency. The U.S. aluminum industry generates nearly $71 billion a year in direct economic impact (according to The Aluminum Association). Arconic, Inc, Alcoa Corp and Kaiser Aluminum Corporation are major aluminum companies in the U.S.
| AA | KALU | AA / KALU | |
| Capitalization | 15.4B | 3.02B | 510% |
| EBITDA | 1.67B | 380M | 440% |
| Gain YTD | 10.160 | 62.513 | 16% |
| P/E Ratio | 14.96 | 20.14 | 74% |
| Revenue | 12.7B | 3.7B | 343% |
| Total Cash | 1.35B | 30M | 4,510% |
| Total Debt | 2.44B | 1.07B | 228% |
AA | KALU | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 64 | 88 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 24 Undervalued | 16 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 77 | 41 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 53 | 47 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 44 | 36 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 11 | 71 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
KALU's Valuation (16) in the Aluminum industry is in the same range as AA (24). This means that KALU’s stock grew similarly to AA’s over the last 12 months.
KALU's Profit vs Risk Rating (41) in the Aluminum industry is somewhat better than the same rating for AA (77). This means that KALU’s stock grew somewhat faster than AA’s over the last 12 months.
KALU's SMR Rating (47) in the Aluminum industry is in the same range as AA (53). This means that KALU’s stock grew similarly to AA’s over the last 12 months.
KALU's Price Growth Rating (36) in the Aluminum industry is in the same range as AA (44). This means that KALU’s stock grew similarly to AA’s over the last 12 months.
AA's P/E Growth Rating (11) in the Aluminum industry is somewhat better than the same rating for KALU (71). This means that AA’s stock grew somewhat faster than KALU’s over the last 12 months.
| AA | KALU | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 78% | 1 day ago 78% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 77% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 78% | 1 day ago 76% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 71% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 79% | 1 day ago 79% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 21 days ago 80% | 1 day ago 78% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 80% | 7 days ago 69% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 80% | 1 day ago 77% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 82% | 1 day ago 85% |
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