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ABNB vs EXPE
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Airbnb (ABNB) vs. Expedia Group (EXPE) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both ABNB and EXPE benefit from robust travel demand, with recent quarterly revenue growth around 11-12%.
- EXPE has delivered stronger stock returns, up over 60% in the past 12 months compared to ABNB's 18%.
- ABNB maintains higher net margins at approximately 23% versus EXPE's 8%.
- Recent momentum favors EXPE, with gains exceeding 20% in recent monthly periods amid dividend hikes and buybacks.
- ABNB shows booking value acceleration, signaling potential for sustained growth in unique stays.
- Travel sector sentiment remains positive, driven by leisure and international recovery.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines ABNB and EXPE, two leaders in the online travel ecosystem. Airbnb (ABNB) focuses on short-term rentals, while Expedia Group (EXPE) operates a broad online travel agency (OTA) platform. Investors and traders interested in consumer discretionary and leisure sectors will find value here, particularly amid recovering global travel. The analysis highlights relative performance, growth drivers, and market positioning to inform stock comparison decisions in the current environment.
ABNB Overview and Recent Performance
Airbnb (ABNB), a global online marketplace for lodging and experiences, connects hosts with travelers seeking unique accommodations. In recent market activity, ABNB shares have risen approximately 12% over the past month and 4% year-to-date, trading near $141 with a 52-week range of $111 to $147. This upward trend follows strong Q4 2025 results, with revenue up 12% year-over-year to $2.78 billion and gross booking value (GBV) growing 16%—the highest in recent quarters. Sentiment has been supported by optimistic Q1 2026 guidance for low double-digit revenue growth and analyst target increases, reflecting sustained demand for experiential travel despite economic headwinds.
EXPE Overview and Recent Performance
Expedia Group (EXPE) is a leading OTA aggregator, offering bookings for hotels, flights, and vacation packages through brands like Expedia and Hotels.com. Shares have exhibited strong momentum in recent weeks, with 30-day gains around 9% and year-to-date advances, trading near $250 in a 52-week range of $149 to $304. Performance was boosted by Q4 2025 earnings beats, including 11% growth in gross bookings and revenue, alongside a 20% dividend increase to $0.48 per share and ongoing share repurchases. Positive factors include B2B revenue acceleration (up 24% year-over-year) and partnerships like PredictHQ, enhancing market confidence in diversified travel exposure.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
ABNB and EXPE operate in the travel sector but differ in business models: ABNB's asset-light marketplace emphasizes peer-to-peer rentals with higher margins (23%), while EXPE's OTA model provides broader services (hotels, flights) but faces inventory competition and lower margins (8%). Growth drivers include leisure and international travel recovery, with both projecting mid-single to low-double-digit revenue increases. Recent momentum tilts to EXPE, which has significantly outperformed on price returns amid shareholder returns. Risk factors for ABNB include regulatory scrutiny on short-term rentals; EXPE contends with economic sensitivity and rivals like Booking Holdings. Market sentiment is upbeat for both, buoyed by booking strength, though EXPE shows greater stability in volatile conditions.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently leans toward EXPE based on superior trend consistency, relative outperformance (e.g., 61% past-year returns vs. ABNB's 18%), and catalysts like dividend growth and buybacks. While ABNB offers profitability edges, EXPE's momentum and diversified positioning provide higher probability for near-term gains in the travel rebound.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ABNB is a Hold and EXPE is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ABNB’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileEXPE’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- ABNB’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- EXPE’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ABNB’s TA Score shows that 2 TA indicator(s) are bullish while EXPE’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ABNB’s TA Score: 2 bullish, 6 bearish.
- EXPE’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 7 bearish.
Price Growth
ABNB (@Consumer Sundries) experienced а -3.36% price change this week, while EXPE (@Consumer Sundries) price change was -2.87% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Consumer Sundries industry was +0.77%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +5.81%, and the average quarterly price growth was -9.92%.
Reported Earning Dates
ABNB is expected to report earnings on Aug 12, 2026.
EXPE is expected to report earnings on Jul 30, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Consumer Sundries (+0.77% weekly)Consumer sundries companies make products that usually do not have another classification, such as lawn and garden products, pest-control products, pet food and pet products like leashes, collars, and harnesses. Central Garden & Pet Company and Dogness (International) Corporation are examples of companies operating in this industry.
| ABNB | EXPE | ABNB / EXPE | |
| Capitalization | 76.6B | 26.3B | 291% |
| EBITDA | 2.59B | 3.08B | 84% |
| Gain YTD | -4.878 | -22.389 | 22% |
| P/E Ratio | 31.88 | 19.34 | 165% |
| Revenue | 12.6B | 15.2B | 83% |
| Total Cash | 12B | 5.79B | 207% |
| Total Debt | 2.53B | 4.71B | 54% |
EXPE | ||
|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 19 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 85 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 73 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 9 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 52 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 58 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 48 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
| ABNB | EXPE | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 80% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 82% | 2 days ago 72% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 70% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 65% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 66% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 70% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | N/A | 7 days ago 73% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 9 days ago 67% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 65% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 59% |
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EXPE and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, EXPE has been closely correlated with BKNG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 67% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if EXPE jumps, then BKNG could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To EXPE | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EXPE | 100% | -5.25% | ||
| BKNG - EXPE | 67% Closely correlated | -2.04% | ||
| CCL - EXPE | 50% Loosely correlated | -6.27% | ||
| CUK - EXPE | 49% Loosely correlated | N/A | ||
| ABNB - EXPE | 47% Loosely correlated | -1.71% | ||
| TRIP - EXPE | 44% Loosely correlated | -3.14% | ||
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