Advertisement
AER vs AGM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? AerCap Holdings (AER) vs. Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Different business models: AER is a global aircraft lessor, while AGM is a government-sponsored enterprise (GSE) financing U.S. agriculture and rural infrastructure.
- Momentum and catalysts: AER is benefiting from a persistent aircraft supply shortage, while AGM is expanding rapidly into renewable energy and data-center-related broadband lending.
- Earnings quality: Both companies posted record quarterly results in recent periods, with AER raising guidance and AGM reporting record business volume and core earnings.
- Risk profiles differ: AER carries cyclical aviation and residual-value risk, while AGM carries credit and interest-rate exposure tied to agricultural and infrastructure borrowers.
- Capital returns: AER pairs a dividend with an aggressive buyback program, while AGM emphasizes a growing dividend and disciplined capital expansion.
- Relative positioning: The two names appeal to different investor types, making this a contrast between cyclical growth and defensive, mission-driven finance.
Introduction
Comparing AER and AGM places two structurally different franchises side by side: a global aviation leasing leader and a specialized U.S. agricultural-finance institution. The stock comparison is useful for investors weighing cyclical upside against defensive cash-flow consistency. AER offers exposure to a recovering, supply-constrained aircraft market, while AGM offers exposure to stable, government-linked lending with an expanding infrastructure tilt. Traders focused on momentum, relative performance, and sector diversification may find this pairing instructive, as both names have generated strong recent results despite operating in unrelated industries and facing distinct macroeconomic drivers.
AER Overview and Recent Performance
AER (AerCap Holdings N.V.) is the world's largest independent aircraft leasing company, owning, financing, selling, and managing a diversified portfolio of commercial aircraft, engines, and helicopters. Its revenue comes primarily from lease rents to airlines, supplemented by gains on asset sales.
Recent market activity has been constructive. In recent quarters, AER reported record adjusted results, raised its full-year adjusted earnings-per-share (EPS) guidance, and announced a new $1.0 billion share repurchase program. Book value per share climbed roughly 20% year over year, reflecting disciplined capital deployment. Management has emphasized that demand for aviation assets remains robust despite geopolitical developments, supported by sustained air-travel demand and constrained aircraft supply. The company has also expanded its order book, including an order for 15 Boeing 787 wide-body aircraft. Analysts have responded by raising price targets, citing the favorable supply-and-demand imbalance in aircraft leasing. The shares have shown volatility but have delivered strong multi-year total returns for long-term holders.
AGM Overview and Recent Performance
AGM (Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation), commonly known as Farmer Mac, is a government-sponsored enterprise that provides liquidity to U.S. agricultural and rural infrastructure markets by purchasing and guaranteeing loans and issuing securities. It operates across farm and ranch lending, agribusiness, and a growing infrastructure segment spanning power, utilities, renewable energy, and broadband.
Recent performance has been robust. In recent quarters, AGM reported record outstanding business volume, revenue, and core earnings, with volume exceeding $37 billion and core earnings per share reaching new highs. Net effective spread, a key profitability measure, also set records. Growth has been driven by strong farm-and-ranch loan purchases, wholesale finance volumes, and rapidly expanding infrastructure lending, much of it tied to data-center demand. Return on equity has remained strong. The company has continued to raise its dividend, supported by a modest payout ratio and growing capital. Its diversified, mission-oriented model has helped it navigate agricultural-sector volatility and interest-rate shifts.
Trending AI Robots
For traders seeking a systematic edge in evaluating names like AER and AGM, Tickeron's Trending AI Robots page offers a curated view of its AI trading bots. Tickeron maintains hundreds of AI Trading Bots that trade thousands of different tickers, but only the most suitable for current market conditions earn a place in this curated section. The featured bots span diverse trading styles, strategies, timeframes, performance statistics, and sets of tickers, with recent selections reporting realized returns, win rates, profit factors, and profit-to-drawdown ratios that vary widely across strategies. Exploring the Trending AI Robots section can help traders identify systematically generated signals aligned with their own objectives.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The core contrast between these stocks lies in their business models and risk exposures. AER is a cyclical, asset-heavy business whose earnings hinge on aircraft demand, lease rates, and the residual value of its fleet. Its growth drivers include tight aircraft supply, strong air-travel demand, and profitable asset sales. Key risks include a potential aircraft oversupply, airline customer distress, and fuel-price pressures on carriers.
AGM, by contrast, is a spread-based financial institution with a stable, government-linked funding advantage. Its growth is increasingly powered by non-agricultural segments such as renewable energy and broadband, including data-center lending. Its risks center on agricultural credit conditions, interest-rate movements, and concentration in fast-growing infrastructure categories.
In terms of market sentiment, AER has attracted analyst upgrades on supply-demand dynamics, while AGM has drawn attention for record volume growth and diversification. AER leans toward cyclical value with aggressive buybacks; AGM leans toward defensive income with a steadily growing dividend and broad portfolio diversification.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely view AER as the stronger momentum candidate, given its consistent upward earnings revisions, favorable supply-and-demand backdrop, and active capital returns. Its trend appears more clearly defined over recent quarters, with catalysts such as guidance increases and buybacks supporting relative performance. AGM presents a steadier, lower-volatility profile with record fundamentals but a more gradual, diversified growth trajectory. On a probabilistic basis, the AI would likely favor AER for trend consistency and near-term catalysts, while recognizing AGM's stability as a defensive alternative for risk-conscious positioning.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AER is a Buy and AGM is a Hold.
AER in upward trend: 10-day moving average broke above 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026
The 10-day moving average for AER crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 12 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 21, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on AER as a result. In 60 of 87 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
AER moved above its 50-day moving average on October 21, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +6.44% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AER advanced for three days, in 227 of 336 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 5 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 6 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AER declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 56%.
AER broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 5 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 72, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 20 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. AER’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 77 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.415) is normal, around the industry mean (2.178). P/E Ratio (7.990) is within average values for comparable stocks, (30.981). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.300) is also within normal values, averaging (0.988). Dividend Yield (0.010) settles around the average of (0.032) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.639) is also within normal values, averaging (1.703).
AGM's RSI Indicator recovers from oversold territory
The RSI Oscillator for AGM moved out of oversold territory on October 20, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 28 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 23 of the 28 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 82%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 36 of 56 cases where AGM's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 02, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on AGM as a result. In 57 of 86 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for AGM just turned positive on October 27, 2026. Looking at past instances where AGM's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 29 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
Following a +1.75% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AGM advanced for three days, in 209 of 318 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AGM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 64%.
The Aroon Indicator for AGM entered a downward trend on October 28, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 17 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 25 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 27 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 78, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 54 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. AGM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 82 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.785) is normal, around the industry mean (3.804). P/E Ratio (11.167) is within average values for comparable stocks, (6.599). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.716) is also within normal values, averaging (3.918). Dividend Yield (0.031) settles around the average of (0.186) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.420) is also within normal values, averaging (5.901).
AER | AGM | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 28 | 10 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 77 Overvalued | 82 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 5 | 27 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 48 | 17 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 41 | 54 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 20 | 25 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
AER's Valuation (77) in the Finance Or Rental Or Leasing industry is in the same range as AGM (82). This means that AER’s stock grew similarly to AGM’s over the last 12 months.
AER's Profit vs Risk Rating (5) in the Finance Or Rental Or Leasing industry is in the same range as AGM (27). This means that AER’s stock grew similarly to AGM’s over the last 12 months.
AGM's SMR Rating (17) in the Finance Or Rental Or Leasing industry is in the same range as AER (48). This means that AGM’s stock grew similarly to AER’s over the last 12 months.
AER's Price Growth Rating (41) in the Finance Or Rental Or Leasing industry is in the same range as AGM (54). This means that AER’s stock grew similarly to AGM’s over the last 12 months.
AER's P/E Growth Rating (20) in the Finance Or Rental Or Leasing industry is in the same range as AGM (25). This means that AER’s stock grew similarly to AGM’s over the last 12 months.
| AER | AGM | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 50% | 2 days ago 82% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 54% | 2 days ago 64% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 66% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 64% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 65% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 61% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 68% | 9 days ago 66% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 14 days ago 56% | 7 days ago 64% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 52% | N/A |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 44% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AER’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while AGM’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- AER’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- AGM’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AER’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while AGM’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AER’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- AGM’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 2 bearish.
Price Growth
AER (@Finance/Rental/Leasing) experienced а +6.59% price change this week, while AGM (@Savings Banks) price change was +0.71% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Finance/Rental/Leasing industry was -5.25%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.96%, and the average quarterly price growth was -2.51%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Savings Banks industry was -1.94%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -3.27%, and the average quarterly price growth was -8.10%.
Reported Earning Dates
AER is expected to report earnings on Mar 03, 2027.
AGM is expected to report earnings on Feb 19, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Finance/Rental/Leasing (-5.25% weekly)A leasing company (e.g. United Rentals, Inc. ) is typically the legal owner of the asset for the duration of the lease, while the lessee has operating control over the asset while also having some share of the economic risks and returns from the change in the valuation of the underlying asset. Per capita disposable income and corporate earnings or cash flow could be some of the critical metrics for this business – the higher the values of these metrics, the potentially greater ability of consumers/businesses to afford apartments/office spaces for rent. Other finance companies include credit/debit card payment processing companies (e.g. Visa Inc. and Mastercard), private label credit cards providers (e.g. Synchrony Financial) and automobile finance companies (e.g. Credit Acceptance Corporation).
@Savings Banks (-1.94% weekly)A savings bank primary function is to take deposits and paying interest on those deposits. Originating in Europe during the 18th century, these banks were generally introduced to incentivize people of all stripes to save money and park them with banks. By the 1990s, the internet ushered in online savings banks that allowed savers to deposit/transact with banks digitally, without requiring to visit a branch office. Savings banks have potentially encouraged lower-income population to save and have access to a financial institution to earn interest on their money. New York Community Bancorp, Inc, Webster Financial Corporation, Washington Federal, Inc. are examples of savings banks.
Advertisement
AER and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AER has been closely correlated with AXP. These tickers have moved in lockstep 69% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if AER jumps, then AXP could also see price increases.
AGM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AGM has been loosely correlated with GATX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 53% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if AGM jumps, then GATX could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To AGM | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AGM | 100% | +1.65% | ||
| GATX - AGM | 53% Loosely correlated | +2.65% | ||
| BBDC - AGM | 50% Loosely correlated | +2.53% | ||
| R - AGM | 50% Loosely correlated | +0.49% | ||
| URI - AGM | 49% Loosely correlated | -4.37% | ||
| AER - AGM | 47% Loosely correlated | +2.04% | ||
More | ||||
| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| XBJL | 41.30 | 0.44 | +1.08% |
| Innovator U.S. Equity Accelerated 9 Buffer ETF - July (XBJL) | |||
| NJUL | 75.75 | 0.35 | +0.46% |
| Innovator Growth-100 Power Buffer ETF - July (NJUL) | |||
| WEBX | 16.91 | N/A | N/A |
| Corgi Chinese Internet 2x Daily ETF (WEBX) | |||
| DBA | 26.45 | -0.07 | -0.26% |
| Invesco DB Agriculture Fund (DBA) | |||
| COHH | 2.28 | -0.30 | -11.63% |
| Leverage Shares 2X Long COHR Daily ETF (COHH) | |||