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AIRO vs RCAT
Which Stock Would AI Choose? AIRO Group Holdings (AIRO) vs. Red Cat Holdings (RCAT) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both AIRO and RCAT operate in the aerospace and defense sector, focusing on drones and related technologies, but RCAT shows stronger year-to-date gains of 66.27% compared to AIRO's 5.01%.
- RCAT boasts a larger market capitalization of $1.6 billion versus AIRO's $270 million, indicating greater scale.
- Analyst price targets suggest significant upside for both, with AIRO at around $18-20 (110%+ potential) and RCAT at $21.75 (65% potential).
- Recent market activity highlights volatility, with AIRO experiencing a downgrade amid backlog concerns while RCAT announces partnerships and NATO expansions.
- Tickeron's comparison favors RCAT for long-term buying due to superior fundamentals and growth.
Introduction
In the competitive aerospace and defense sector, AIRO and RCAT stand out as innovative players leveraging drones and unmanned systems. This comparison analyzes their business models, recent stock performance, and market positioning, aiding traders seeking short-term momentum and investors eyeing growth in defense technologies. With geopolitical tensions driving demand for advanced UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles), these stocks offer insights into sector trends and relative opportunities in recent market activity.
AIRO Overview and Recent Performance
AIRO Group Holdings is a multi-faceted aerospace and defense firm operating in drones, avionics, training, and electric air mobility segments. Headquartered in McLean, Virginia, it manufactures drones, avionics for military aircraft and eVTOLs (electric vertical takeoff and landing vehicles), provides pilot training including ISR (intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance), and develops cargo eVTOLs via its Jaunt brand. Trading around $8.59 with a 52-week range of $7.28-$39.07, the stock has risen 5.01% year-to-date but faced pressure in recent weeks, down approximately 9.58% over the past month amid a BTIG downgrade citing backlog decline and competition. Q4 2025 earnings showed revenue growth to $48.3 million, boosting sentiment, though EPS remains negative at -0.17.
RCAT Overview and Recent Performance
RCAT, or Red Cat Holdings, specializes in drone and robotic solutions for defense and security, producing tactical UAS like Black Widow, Teal 2, and Fang FPV drones, plus fixed-wing systems and uncrewed surface vessels. Based in South Salt Lake, Utah, it targets military, police, and commercial users. The stock trades near $13.17, within a 52-week range of $4.63-$18.78, with robust year-to-date gains of 66.27% and 183% over one year, outperforming peers despite recent dips. Recent weeks feature positive developments like NATO partnerships, manufacturing milestones, and Q1 earnings anticipation, though it dipped 18% over six months; EPS is -0.73 TTM.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
AIRO offers diversified exposure across drones, avionics, training, and eVTOLs, contrasting RCAT’s focused drone/UAS portfolio, potentially reducing single-product risk but diluting growth drivers. Recent momentum favors RCAT with superior YTD and multi-year returns, while AIRO shows short-term weekly gains. Risk factors include losses (AIRO EBITDA -$41.9M vs. RCAT -$26.4M), high volatility (52-week spans triple current prices), and sector sensitivity to defense budgets. RCAT holds more cash ($206M vs. $83.5M) but higher debt; sentiment leans positive for RCAT via partnerships versus AIRO’s competition concerns.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors RCAT based on stronger trend consistency, YTD outperformance, larger scale, and long-term fundamental edge in comparisons, alongside catalysts like NATO deals. AIRO holds short-term technical appeal and higher analyst upside potential, suggesting probabilistic advantages for momentum traders, though both carry elevated risks in this sector.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AIRO is a Hold and RCAT is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AIRO’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileRCAT’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- AIRO’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- RCAT’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AIRO’s TA Score shows that 2 TA indicator(s) are bullish while RCAT’s TA Score has 2 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AIRO’s TA Score: 2 bullish, 7 bearish.
- RCAT’s TA Score: 2 bullish, 8 bearish.
Price Growth
AIRO (@Aerospace & Defense) experienced а -5.76% price change this week, while RCAT (@Aerospace & Defense) price change was -11.15% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Aerospace & Defense industry was -3.54%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -4.48%, and the average quarterly price growth was +13.68%.
Reported Earning Dates
AIRO is expected to report earnings on Aug 13, 2026.
RCAT is expected to report earnings on Aug 13, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Aerospace & Defense (-3.54% weekly)Aerospace & Defense is one of largest industries in the U.S., mainly comprising the following areas: commercial airliners, military aircraft, missiles, space, and general aviation. Focused heavily on research & development, it is also one of the fastest growing industries. Military aircraft has the largest market share in the industry’s sales, followed by space systems, civil aircraft, and missiles. Aerospace exports, directly and indirectly, support more jobs than the export of any other commodity, according to a study by the U.S. Department of Commerce. Boeing Company, Lockheed Martin Corporation and General Electric Company are some of the most prominent players in this space.
| AIRO | RCAT | AIRO / RCAT | |
| Capitalization | 242M | 1.62B | 15% |
| EBITDA | 11.4M | -78.93M | -14% |
| Gain YTD | -5.990 | 34.111 | -18% |
| P/E Ratio | N/A | N/A | - |
| Revenue | 88M | 54.6M | 161% |
| Total Cash | 54.2M | 132M | 41% |
| Total Debt | 4.36M | 13.8M | 32% |
AIRO | RCAT | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 15 | 92 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 9 Undervalued | 37 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 54 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 92 | 99 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 52 | 40 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 100 | 98 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 73 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
AIRO's Valuation (9) in the null industry is in the same range as RCAT (37). This means that AIRO’s stock grew similarly to RCAT’s over the last 12 months.
RCAT's Profit vs Risk Rating (54) in the null industry is somewhat better than the same rating for AIRO (100). This means that RCAT’s stock grew somewhat faster than AIRO’s over the last 12 months.
AIRO's SMR Rating (92) in the null industry is in the same range as RCAT (99). This means that AIRO’s stock grew similarly to RCAT’s over the last 12 months.
RCAT's Price Growth Rating (40) in the null industry is in the same range as AIRO (52). This means that RCAT’s stock grew similarly to AIRO’s over the last 12 months.
RCAT's P/E Growth Rating (98) in the null industry is in the same range as AIRO (100). This means that RCAT’s stock grew similarly to AIRO’s over the last 12 months.
| AIRO | RCAT | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 85% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 87% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 81% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 85% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 82% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 23% | 2 days ago 88% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 15 days ago 72% | 6 days ago 90% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 90% | 14 days ago 80% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 89% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 81% | 2 days ago 84% |
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RCAT and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, RCAT has been loosely correlated with ACHR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 56% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if RCAT jumps, then ACHR could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To RCAT | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCAT | 100% | -7.04% | ||
| ACHR - RCAT | 56% Loosely correlated | -2.51% | ||
| RDW - RCAT | 55% Loosely correlated | -9.27% | ||
| AIRO - RCAT | 54% Loosely correlated | -3.75% | ||
| KTOS - RCAT | 53% Loosely correlated | -5.76% | ||
| LUNR - RCAT | 53% Loosely correlated | -3.76% | ||
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