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KTOS vs RCAT
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS) vs. Red Cat Holdings (RCAT) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- KTOS (Kratos Defense & Security Solutions) is a diversified, profitable defense technology company with a record backlog and positive book-to-bill; RCAT (Red Cat Holdings) is a smaller, faster-growing drone pure-play that remains unprofitable.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: KTOS — its combination of trend consistency, diversified revenue, profitability, and stable backlog currently positions it more favorably than RCAT.
- Both stocks have declined year-to-date, but KTOS has shown steadier, broader-based fundamentals, while RCAT has experienced sharp volatility alongside its rapid revenue ramp.
- RCAT's revenue surged 849% year over year, yet it still posts operating losses; KTOS grew revenue 22.6% while generating positive net income and expanding adjusted EBITDA.
- For more detail, explore KTOS Major News and KTOS Today's Price Move, plus RCAT Major News and RCAT Today's Price Move.
- To see how automated strategies are positioning across the market, explore Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
Defense technology has become one of the market's most closely watched sectors as governments prioritize unmanned systems, hypersonics, and autonomous capabilities. KTOS and RCAT both operate in this space, yet they represent very different investment profiles. This stock comparison is relevant for investors weighing a diversified, profitable defense contractor against a smaller, high-growth drone specialist. Understanding the contrast in relative performance, market positioning, and risk can help traders and long-term investors decide which profile better fits their strategy in the current environment.
KTOS Overview and Recent Performance
Kratos Defense & Security Solutions is a diversified provider of military-grade technology spanning unmanned aerial systems (UAS), target drones, hypersonic vehicles, turbojet engines, solid rocket motors, and satellite ground systems. Its XQ-58A Valkyrie tactical drone and Spartan turbojet engines have kept it at the center of U.S. Department of Defense procurement priorities.
In recent quarters, KTOS reported revenue of roughly $371 million in its fiscal first quarter, up 22.6% year over year, while lifting full-year guidance. Its book-to-bill ratio reached 1.6-to-1, supported by a record backlog near $2 billion and a bid-and-proposal pipeline above $14 billion. Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) expanded to about $38.7 million, reflecting stronger profitability. Despite this operational momentum, the stock has pulled back over recent weeks, with shares down sharply year-to-date — a pattern some analysts attribute to valuation normalization after a multi-year rally rather than deteriorating fundamentals.
RCAT Overview and Recent Performance
Red Cat Holdings is a U.S.-based developer of small unmanned aircraft and uncrewed surface vessels, operating through subsidiaries such as Teal Drones, FlightWave Aerospace, and the Blue Ops maritime division. Its flagship Black Widow drone secured the U.S. Army's Short-Range Reconnaissance (SRR) program of record, and the company is expanding internationally across NATO allies, Japan, and Taiwan.
RCAT delivered standout growth recently, with first-quarter revenue rising 849% year over year to approximately $15.5 million and gross margin turning positive at 12.7%. Management has targeted annual revenue of $150 million to $180 million and gross margins approaching 30%. However, the company still posts substantial net losses, and its growth depends heavily on converting a large opportunity pipeline into signed contracts and deliveries. The stock has been highly volatile, rallying strongly over the trailing year before retreating sharply toward its 52-week low in recent weeks amid execution concerns and insider selling.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron's Trending AI Robots page curates a selection of the platform's automated trading strategies that are best suited to current market conditions. Tickeron hosts hundreds of AI trading bots that monitor thousands of different tickers, each with its own trading style, strategy, timeframe, performance record, statistics, and basket of securities. Because market conditions change constantly, only a subset of these bots earns a place in the Trending section at any given time. This curated list offers traders a way to observe how algorithmic systems are currently positioning across sectors such as defense technology. To review the latest top-performing strategies, visit Trending AI Robots.
Head-to-Head Comparison
Although both companies serve the defense sector, their business models differ sharply. KTOS operates a diversified portfolio — drones, engines, hypersonics, and satellite ground systems — that spreads risk across multiple programs and customers. RCAT is a focused drone and maritime autonomy play whose fortunes are more concentrated in a few key programs such as Black Widow and the Blue Ops fleet.
On growth, RCAT's revenue trajectory is steeper, but it comes with higher execution and dilution risk, ongoing net losses, and heavier reliance on the timing of large contracts. KTOS offers more moderate growth but generates positive net income, a strengthening backlog, and a book-to-bill above one. In terms of market sentiment, both names have experienced selling pressure recently, though KTOS's pullback has been comparatively steadier, while RCAT's share price has swung dramatically. Risk factors also diverge: supply-chain friction and program timing affect both, but RCAT's smaller scale and negative earnings make it more sensitive to contract delays and competitive shifts in the drone market.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, revenue diversification, profitability, backlog stability, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would currently lean toward KTOS. Its combination of positive earnings, record backlog, and a diversified program base suggests more durable trend quality than RCAT's higher-growth but still loss-making profile. RCAT retains a stronger near-term growth catalyst in its expanding drone and maritime pipeline, but its elevated volatility and execution dependence introduce greater uncertainty. This assessment reflects a probabilistic view of relative strength rather than a definitive outcome, and conditions could shift as new contract awards and earnings data emerge.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is KTOS is a Hold and RCAT is a Hold.
KTOS sees MACD Histogram just turned negative
KTOS saw its Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) turn negative on November 05, 2026. This is a bearish signal that suggests the stock could decline going forward. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 48 instances where the indicator turned negative. In 38 of the 48 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a downward move at 79%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 04, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on KTOS as a result. In 66 of 88 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 75%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where KTOS declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 76%.
The Aroon Indicator for KTOS entered a downward trend on November 06, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where KTOS's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 22 of 31 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
Following a +6.81% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where KTOS advanced for three days, in 242 of 302 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 80%.
KTOS may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 82 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. KTOS’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 89 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 89 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. KTOS’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 79, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 92 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.923) is normal, around the industry mean (5.050). KTOS's P/E Ratio (195.000) is considerably higher than the industry average of (17.247). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.030) is also within normal values, averaging (3.110). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.055) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.599) is also within normal values, averaging (18.367).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 95 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
RCAT's RSI Oscillator ascending out of oversold territory
The RSI Oscillator for RCAT moved out of oversold territory on November 06, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 22 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 20 of the 22 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 2 days, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for RCAT just turned positive on November 06, 2026. Looking at past instances where RCAT's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 34 of 41 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 83%.
Following a +3.70% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where RCAT advanced for three days, in 233 of 260 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
RCAT may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 30, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on RCAT as a result. In 68 of 82 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 83%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where RCAT declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 81%.
The Aroon Indicator for RCAT entered a downward trend on November 06, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 10 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 33 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.309) is normal, around the industry mean (5.050). P/E Ratio (-5.050) is within average values for comparable stocks, (17.247). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.060) is also within normal values, averaging (3.110). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.055) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (11.820) is also within normal values, averaging (18.367).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 90 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. RCAT’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 93 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. RCAT’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 79, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 97 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
KTOS | RCAT | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 92 Overvalued | 33 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 89 | 93 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 89 | 97 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 82 | 90 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 95 | 10 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
RCAT's Valuation (33) in the null industry is somewhat better than the same rating for KTOS (92) in the Aerospace And Defense industry. This means that RCAT’s stock grew somewhat faster than KTOS’s over the last 12 months.
KTOS's Profit vs Risk Rating (89) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as RCAT (93) in the null industry. This means that KTOS’s stock grew similarly to RCAT’s over the last 12 months.
KTOS's SMR Rating (89) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as RCAT (97) in the null industry. This means that KTOS’s stock grew similarly to RCAT’s over the last 12 months.
KTOS's Price Growth Rating (82) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as RCAT (90) in the null industry. This means that KTOS’s stock grew similarly to RCAT’s over the last 12 months.
RCAT's P/E Growth Rating (10) in the null industry is significantly better than the same rating for KTOS (95) in the Aerospace And Defense industry. This means that RCAT’s stock grew significantly faster than KTOS’s over the last 12 months.
| KTOS | RCAT | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 71% | 4 days ago 90% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 72% | 4 days ago 87% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 75% | 4 days ago 83% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 79% | 4 days ago 83% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 73% | 4 days ago 82% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 76% | 4 days ago 79% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 14 days ago 80% | 12 days ago 90% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 76% | 5 days ago 81% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 79% | 4 days ago 90% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 74% | 4 days ago 77% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
KTOS’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while RCAT’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- KTOS’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- RCAT’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
KTOS’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while RCAT’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- KTOS’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- RCAT’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
KTOS (@Aerospace & Defense) experienced а -14.58% price change this week, while RCAT (@Aerospace & Defense) price change was -12.74% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Aerospace & Defense industry was -3.18%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -9.42%, and the average quarterly price growth was -20.28%.
Reported Earning Dates
KTOS is expected to report earnings on Feb 25, 2027.
RCAT is expected to report earnings on Nov 16, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Aerospace & Defense (-3.18% weekly)Aerospace & Defense is one of largest industries in the U.S., mainly comprising the following areas: commercial airliners, military aircraft, missiles, space, and general aviation. Focused heavily on research & development, it is also one of the fastest growing industries. Military aircraft has the largest market share in the industry’s sales, followed by space systems, civil aircraft, and missiles. Aerospace exports, directly and indirectly, support more jobs than the export of any other commodity, according to a study by the U.S. Department of Commerce. Boeing Company, Lockheed Martin Corporation and General Electric Company are some of the most prominent players in this space.
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KTOS and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, KTOS has been closely correlated with AVAV. These tickers have moved in lockstep 71% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if KTOS jumps, then AVAV could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To KTOS | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KTOS | 100% | +5.12% | ||
| AVAV - KTOS | 71% Closely correlated | +10.46% | ||
| RCAT - KTOS | 65% Loosely correlated | +18.65% | ||
| MRCY - KTOS | 64% Loosely correlated | +12.20% | ||
| KRMN - KTOS | 61% Loosely correlated | +42.13% | ||
| DRS - KTOS | 60% Loosely correlated | +3.15% | ||
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RCAT and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, RCAT has been closely correlated with DPRO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 67% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if RCAT jumps, then DPRO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To RCAT | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCAT | 100% | +18.65% | ||
| DPRO - RCAT | 67% Closely correlated | +13.70% | ||
| KTOS - RCAT | 66% Closely correlated | +5.12% | ||
| LUNR - RCAT | 63% Loosely correlated | +21.46% | ||
| KOPN - RCAT | 62% Loosely correlated | +10.36% | ||
| RKLB - RCAT | 60% Loosely correlated | +15.39% | ||
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