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ALHC vs CLOV
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Alignment Healthcare (ALHC) vs. Clover Health (CLOV) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Diverging catalysts: CLOV recently received a Medicare Advantage (MA) Star Rating upgrade to five stars, while ALHC suffered a downgrade on its largest California contract.
- Profitability inflection: Clover Health has turned GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) profitable, whereas Alignment Healthcare's earnings path faces renewed cost and rating overhangs.
- Momentum contrast: CLOV shares are up sharply year to date on strong membership growth, while ALHC trades near 52-week lows after a steep reset.
- Different models: Both serve Medicare members, but CLOV positions itself as a physician-enabling technology company, while ALHC is a tech-enabled Medicare Advantage insurer.
- Risk profiles differ: ALHC faces quality-rating and medical-cost uncertainty; CLOV faces valuation and profitability-consistency questions after a rapid rally.
Introduction
Alignment Healthcare and Clover Health operate in the same competitive arena—Medicare Advantage, the privately run alternative to traditional Medicare—yet their recent market trajectories have moved in opposite directions. This stock comparison is relevant for investors evaluating two fast-growing, technology-led names at very different stages of investor sentiment. Traders focused on relative performance and market positioning may find the contrast instructive, as one company navigates a quality-rating setback while the other capitalizes on a ratings upgrade and a shift to profitability. Understanding the drivers behind each story helps clarify the trade-offs between momentum and valuation in this sector.
ALHC Overview and Recent Performance
ALHC, or Alignment Healthcare, Inc., is a technology-enabled Medicare Advantage insurer focused on seniors, using its AVA platform to automate claims and clinical workflows. In recent weeks, sentiment has turned sharply negative. The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) lowered the Star Rating on the company's largest California HMO (health maintenance organization) contract from 4.0 to 3.5 stars, and for plan year 2028, Alignment's share of members in 4-star-or-higher plans fell from roughly 98% to about 24–25%. Because 4-star plans qualify for bonus payments, analysts at BofA, JPMorgan, and William Blair cut ratings or price targets, and the stock fell to a new 52-week low.
This pressure contrasts with otherwise solid fundamentals. Alignment reported its first quarterly profit and grew membership about 31% year over year to roughly 284,800 members, with full-year revenue guided near $5.2 billion. The company has also expanded its California network, adding the Hoag health system. Still, the ratings overhang and questions about medical-cost trends have outweighed growth for now.
CLOV Overview and Recent Performance
CLOV, or Clover Health Investments, Corp., describes itself as a physician-enablement technology company. Its core asset is Clover Assistant, an AI-powered platform that aggregates patient data to help physicians manage chronic conditions, alongside a growing Medicare Advantage business and the Counterpart Health subsidiary. Recent market activity has favored the stock: CMS upgraded Clover's flagship PPO (preferred provider organization) plan to a perfect five-star rating, and its HMO plan to 4.5 stars.
Financially, Clover reached GAAP net income of about $28 million in its latest reported quarter, a swing from a year-ago loss, and reiterated its expectation of first full-year GAAP profitability in 2026. Medicare Advantage membership grew roughly 48% year over year to about 157,000, and the company raised its full-year revenue and adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) guidance. Shares are up substantially year to date, though the rapid rally has introduced valuation and profit-taking volatility.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies differ most in their business models and near-term catalysts. Alignment Healthcare operates as a full-risk Medicare Advantage insurer, meaning it bears medical costs directly and depends heavily on Star Ratings for bonus revenue and enrollment competitiveness. Its technology advantage centers on administrative automation and margin expansion. Clover Health, by contrast, leads with its Clover Assistant software and a high-choice PPO offering, positioning technology as the primary differentiator while gradually scaling membership.
On recent momentum, CLOV holds a clear edge, supported by a five-star rating, membership growth, and a profitability milestone. ALHC faces the opposite dynamic, as a ratings downgrade on a contract holding more than 75% of its members pressures its near-term outlook. Risk factors also diverge: ALHC's exposure is concentrated in medical-cost trends and quality-rating recovery, while CLOV's main challenge is sustaining thin profit margins and justifying a valuation that has expanded quickly. Both remain tied to broader Medicare Advantage reimbursement and regulatory trends.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, catalyst quality, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would currently appear more likely to favor CLOV over ALHC. Clover Health's upward Star Rating trajectory, membership growth, and shift to profitability provide a more coherent positive trend, whereas Alignment Healthcare is contending with a ratings-driven reset and elevated execution uncertainty. That said, the assessment is probabilistic rather than definitive: CLOV's rapid appreciation and still-thin margins introduce their own volatility, and a stabilization in ALHC's ratings or costs could shift the balance. The relative momentum currently favors Clover Health, but positioning can change quickly in this sector.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ALHC is a Hold and CLOV is a Buy.
ALHC's RSI Oscillator recovers from oversold territory
The RSI Oscillator for ALHC moved out of oversold territory on October 05, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 31 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 26 of the 31 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 84%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ALHC just turned positive on October 02, 2026. Looking at past instances where ALHC's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 32 of 41 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
Following a +2.78% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ALHC advanced for three days, in 249 of 303 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 82%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 12 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 21, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on ALHC as a result. In 72 of 81 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 89%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ALHC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 84%.
The Aroon Indicator for ALHC entered a downward trend on October 20, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 65 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. ALHC’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 84 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: ALHC's P/B Ratio (6.596) is slightly higher than the industry average of (3.582). P/E Ratio (42.150) is within average values for comparable stocks, (130.390). ALHC's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is slightly lower than the industry average of (0.786). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.009) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.389) is also within normal values, averaging (0.569).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 96 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. ALHC’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 82, placing this stock worse than average.
CLOV's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CLOV turned positive on October 20, 2026. Looking at past instances where CLOV's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 39 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 85%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 41 of 55 cases where CLOV's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 20, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on CLOV as a result. In 57 of 78 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
CLOV moved above its 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +5.04% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CLOV advanced for three days, in 220 of 271 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 148 of 196 cases where CLOV Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 76%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CLOV declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 85%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 8 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: CLOV's P/B Ratio (6.677) is slightly higher than the industry average of (3.582). P/E Ratio (-118.250) is within average values for comparable stocks, (130.390). CLOV's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is slightly lower than the industry average of (0.786). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.009) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.970) is also within normal values, averaging (0.569).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 37 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. CLOV’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 47 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 92 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. CLOV’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 82, placing this stock worse than average.
CLOV | ||
|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 64 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 8 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 92 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 37 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 47 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
| ALHC | CLOV | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 84% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 80% | 1 day ago 75% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 89% | 1 day ago 73% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 78% | 1 day ago 85% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 82% | 1 day ago 83% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 83% | 1 day ago 82% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 82% | 14 days ago 81% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 84% | 1 day ago 85% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 76% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ALHC’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while CLOV’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- ALHC’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- CLOV’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ALHC’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while CLOV’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ALHC’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 4 bearish.
- CLOV’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 1 bearish.
Price Growth
ALHC (@Managed Health Care) experienced а +3.44% price change this week, while CLOV (@Managed Health Care) price change was +1.07% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Managed Health Care industry was +2.49%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +10.42%, and the average quarterly price growth was +42.97%.
Reported Earning Dates
ALHC is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
CLOV is expected to report earnings on Nov 04, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Managed Health Care (+2.49% weekly)Managed healthcare industry focuses on providing health/medical and disability insurance plans, generally intended to reduce the cost of for-profit health care. The insurance products might be provided through employer-paid (fully or partly) insurance and benefit programs, or through Medicare/Medicaid. Some of the largest providers of managed health care include Aetna, Humana Inc., and Cigna, and UnitedHealthcare.
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ALHC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ALHC has been loosely correlated with UNH. These tickers have moved in lockstep 40% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if ALHC jumps, then UNH could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ALHC | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALHC | 100% | -0.12% | ||
| UNH - ALHC | 40% Loosely correlated | +1.91% | ||
| CLOV - ALHC | 35% Loosely correlated | -1.05% | ||
| HUM - ALHC | 33% Loosely correlated | -1.05% | ||
| CVS - ALHC | 32% Poorly correlated | +1.83% | ||
| CI - ALHC | 30% Poorly correlated | +3.78% | ||
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CLOV and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CLOV has been loosely correlated with ALHC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 35% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if CLOV jumps, then ALHC could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To CLOV | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLOV | 100% | -1.05% | ||
| ALHC - CLOV | 35% Loosely correlated | -0.12% | ||
| OSCR - CLOV | 31% Poorly correlated | -0.39% | ||
| PGNY - CLOV | 23% Poorly correlated | +2.39% | ||
| CNC - CLOV | 18% Poorly correlated | +1.42% | ||
| HUM - CLOV | 10% Poorly correlated | -1.05% | ||
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