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AMAT vs TSM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Applied Materials (AMAT) vs. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- AMAT is a leading semiconductor-equipment supplier, while TSM is the world's largest dedicated chip foundry (contract manufacturer), placing them at different stages of the AI-driven supply chain.
- Both stocks have pulled back in recent weeks amid concerns about the sustainability of AI capital spending, yet each retains strong fundamental growth and elevated analyst conviction.
- TSM delivered record third-quarter results with roughly 41% year-over-year revenue growth, while AMAT faces cyclical pressure from a reassessment of chip-equipment spending.
- Relative performance favors TSM on near-term earnings momentum, whereas AMAT offers a higher analyst-implied upside following a deeper drawdown from its highs.
- For more information, explore the AMAT Major News and AMAT Today's Price Move pages, as well as TSM Major News and TSM Today's Price Move pages.
- To see how automated systems are positioning across these and other tickers, explore the Trending AI Robots page.
Introduction
Applied Materials (AMAT) and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) are two of the most closely watched names in the semiconductor industry, but they occupy distinct roles. AMAT designs and sells the manufacturing equipment used to fabricate chips, while TSM operates the foundries that turn those tools into finished silicon for customers including NVIDIA, Apple, and AMD. Because both are highly leveraged to the artificial-intelligence (AI) build-out, a side-by-side comparison helps growth-oriented investors and sector traders assess where exposure to the AI cycle is currently concentrated and how each stock's risk and momentum differ.
AMAT Overview and Recent Performance
Applied Materials is a bellwether for semiconductor capital equipment, supplying deposition, etch, and related process tools used across leading-edge and specialty chip production. In recent weeks, AMAT shares have traded under pressure, reflecting a broader reassessment of semiconductor capital-spending expectations and concerns about revenue exposure to China. The stock remains well below its 52-week high after a drawdown of roughly 48% from its peak, even as it has retained a positive year-to-date gain. Supporting sentiment, the company announced plans to raise its strategic stake in BE Semiconductor Industries to about 20%, deepening a partnership focused on advanced chip packaging and hybrid bonding for AI applications. Analysts have maintained a broadly bullish stance, with a consensus rating of "Strong Buy" and an average price target implying meaningful upside, though the near-term chart and cyclical equipment dynamics remain a source of caution.
TSM Overview and Recent Performance
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company is the world's leading dedicated semiconductor foundry and a central supplier of the advanced chips powering AI accelerators and high-performance computing. In its most recent quarter, TSM reported record revenue of $46.72 billion, up roughly 41% year over year, with earnings per American Depositary Receipt (ADR) of $4.60 and gross margin of 66.4%. Advanced technologies of 7-nanometer and below accounted for about 79% of wafer revenue, and the company guided fourth-quarter revenue to a range of $52.3 billion to $54.3 billion. Despite this strength, shares pulled back in recent weeks as broader technology markets weighed the durability of AI infrastructure spending. Moody's upgrade of TSMC's credit rating to Aa2 underscored its financial strength, even as some institutional investors trimmed positions following the stock's substantial year-to-date advance.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The most important contrast between AMAT and TSM lies in their position within the semiconductor value chain. AMAT is an equipment supplier whose revenue depends on the pace of factory construction and tool orders, making it more cyclically sensitive to capital-spending decisions. TSM is a foundry whose revenue tracks wafer demand directly and has shown stronger, more immediate earnings momentum from the AI cycle. On growth, TSM's high-performance computing segment now accounts for roughly 68% of revenue, while AMAT's outlook is tied to the industry's long-term scaling roadmap and packaging transition. In terms of risk, AMAT carries notable China-exposure and cyclical-order concerns, whereas TSM faces margin pressure from the ramp of its 2-nanometer node and overseas fabrication expansion. On market positioning, TSM's recent momentum and record results contrast with AMAT's deeper pullback and higher analyst-implied upside, reflecting a trade-off between established earnings visibility and valuation opportunity.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors including trend consistency, earnings momentum, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely favor TSM in the current environment. The stock's record revenue growth, expanding advanced-node mix, and stronger near-term earnings visibility suggest more stable trend characteristics than AMAT, which is contending with a cyclical reassessment of equipment demand. That said, AMAT's deeper drawdown and strong analyst consensus imply the gap could narrow if capital-spending sentiment stabilizes. The assessment is probabilistic rather than definitive, reflecting that both stocks are highly correlated to the broader AI investment cycle and remain sensitive to shifts in market-wide risk appetite.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AMAT is a Hold and TSM is a StrongBuy.
AMAT in upward trend: price expected to rise as it breaks its lower Bollinger Band on November 05, 2026
AMAT may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 31 of 34 cases where AMAT's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where AMAT's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 24 of 29 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 83%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 43 of 55 cases where AMAT's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for AMAT just turned positive on November 11, 2026. Looking at past instances where AMAT's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 38 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 83%.
Following a +6.62% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AMAT advanced for three days, in 250 of 315 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 13, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on AMAT as a result. In 56 of 86 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 65%.
AMAT moved below its 50-day moving average on October 13, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for AMAT crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 19, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 9 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 64%.
The 50-day moving average for AMAT moved below the 200-day moving average on November 09, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AMAT declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 66%.
The Aroon Indicator for AMAT entered a downward trend on November 11, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 25 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 39 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 75, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 63 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. AMAT’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 74 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (10.304) is normal, around the industry mean (5.670). P/E Ratio (28.486) is within average values for comparable stocks, (68.795). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.967) is also within normal values, averaging (0.801). Dividend Yield (0.006) settles around the average of (0.009) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (10.764) is also within normal values, averaging (27.897).
TSM sees its Stochastic Oscillator climbs out of oversold territory
On November 10, 2026, the Stochastic Oscillator for TSM moved out of oversold territory and this could be a bullish sign for the stock. Traders may want to buy the stock or buy call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 59 instances where the indicator left the oversold zone. In 49 of the 59 cases the stock moved higher in the following days. This puts the odds of a move higher at over 83%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where TSM's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 17 of 23 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
Following a +6.36% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TSM advanced for three days, in 234 of 317 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
TSM may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 30, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on TSM as a result. In 61 of 82 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 74%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for TSM turned negative on October 09, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 29 of the 46 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 63%.
TSM moved below its 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for TSM crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 10 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TSM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
The Aroon Indicator for TSM entered a downward trend on November 11, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 14 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 78, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 26 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 42 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.303) is normal, around the industry mean (5.443). P/E Ratio (0.878) is within average values for comparable stocks, (15.640). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.859) is also within normal values, averaging (3.803). Dividend Yield (0.012) settles around the average of (0.014) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (15.480) is also within normal values, averaging (46.468).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TSM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 97 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
AMAT | TSM | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 14 | 23 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 74 Overvalued | 42 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 58 | 14 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 25 | 26 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 63 | 58 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 39 | 97 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
TSM's Valuation (42) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as AMAT (74) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry. This means that TSM’s stock grew similarly to AMAT’s over the last 12 months.
TSM's Profit vs Risk Rating (14) in the Semiconductors industry is somewhat better than the same rating for AMAT (58) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry. This means that TSM’s stock grew somewhat faster than AMAT’s over the last 12 months.
AMAT's SMR Rating (25) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as TSM (26) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that AMAT’s stock grew similarly to TSM’s over the last 12 months.
TSM's Price Growth Rating (58) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as AMAT (63) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry. This means that TSM’s stock grew similarly to AMAT’s over the last 12 months.
AMAT's P/E Growth Rating (39) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is somewhat better than the same rating for TSM (97) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that AMAT’s stock grew somewhat faster than TSM’s over the last 12 months.
| AMAT | TSM | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 83% | 1 day ago 74% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 78% | 1 day ago 83% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 74% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 83% | 3 days ago 63% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 77% | 1 day ago 74% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 70% | 1 day ago 65% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 79% | 1 day ago 74% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 66% | 8 days ago 62% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 90% | 1 day ago 72% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 58% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AMAT’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while TSM’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- AMAT’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- TSM’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AMAT’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TSM’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AMAT’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 6 bearish.
- TSM’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
AMAT (@Electronic Production Equipment) experienced а +6.95% price change this week, while TSM (@Semiconductors) price change was +4.45% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Electronic Production Equipment industry was +6.88%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -17.35%, and the average quarterly price growth was -31.42%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Semiconductors industry was +6.05%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -11.51%, and the average quarterly price growth was -25.70%.
Reported Earning Dates
AMAT is expected to report earnings on Nov 12, 2026.
TSM is expected to report earnings on Jan 21, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Electronic Production Equipment (+6.88% weekly)The electronic production equipment industry makes equipment used to produce semiconductors. Such equipment includes wafer fabrication, plasma etching and photo-resist processing equipment. The industry also makes chemical vapor deposition processing systems and photomasks, which are high-purity quartz plates that contain patterns to define integrated circuits layouts. Applied Materials, Inc., Lam Research Corporation, and KLA-Tencor Corporation are examples of electronic production equipment manufacturing companies.
@Semiconductors (+6.05% weekly)The semiconductor industry manufacturers all chip-related products, including research and development. These chips are used in innumerable electronic devices, including computers, cell phones, smartphones, and GPSs. Intel Corporation, NVIDIA Corp., and Broadcomm are some of the prominent players in this industry. Semiconductor companies usually tend to do well during periods of healthy economic growth, thereby inducing further research and development in the industry – which in turn augurs well for productivity and growth in the economy. In the near future, demand for semiconductor products (and possibly innovation within the segment) should only expand further, with the proliferation of 5G, autonomous vehicles, IoT, and various AI-driven electronics set to herald a new, advanced chapter in the technology-driven world as we know it. With burgeoning prospects comes great competition. In 2015, SIA estimated that U.S. semiconductor industry ranks as the second most competitive U.S. industry out of 2882 U.S. industries designated manufacturers by the U.S. Census Bureau.
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TSM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TSM has been closely correlated with ASML. These tickers have moved in lockstep 74% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TSM jumps, then ASML could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To TSM | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSM | 100% | +4.25% | ||
| ASML - TSM | 74% Closely correlated | +1.76% | ||
| LRCX - TSM | 73% Closely correlated | +6.07% | ||
| KLAC - TSM | 71% Closely correlated | +5.24% | ||
| AMAT - TSM | 71% Closely correlated | +6.05% | ||
| ASX - TSM | 70% Closely correlated | +6.60% | ||
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