Advertisement
AMGN vs LLY
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Amgen (AMGN) vs. Eli Lilly (LLY) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Amgen (AMGN) and Eli Lilly (LLY) are both pharmaceutical giants, but they occupy very different positions in the current market — Lilly is riding an explosive obesity drug boom, while Amgen is an emerging challenger with a differentiated pipeline candidate.
- Eli Lilly has delivered dramatically stronger revenue and earnings growth over the past year, driven by blockbuster GLP-1 (glucagon-like peptide-1) drugs Mounjaro and Zepbound, which together generated $7.5 billion in a single recent quarter.
- Amgen offers a more diversified, value-oriented profile with a lower P/E (price-to-earnings) ratio near 25.5, a broader portfolio spanning oncology, inflammation, rare disease, and general medicine, and a pipeline obesity candidate (MariTide) that could disrupt the market with monthly or quarterly dosing.
- Both companies face distinct risk profiles: Lilly's valuation embeds extremely high growth expectations, while Amgen must navigate patent cliffs on legacy drugs and prove its obesity candidate can compete against entrenched leaders.
- Analyst sentiment skews more bullish on Lilly (Moderate Buy consensus, with price targets reaching $1,500), while Amgen carries a consensus Hold rating, reflecting a "wait-and-see" posture toward its pipeline execution.
- The AI-driven comparison ultimately hinges on whether current momentum and market dominance (Lilly) outweigh valuation discipline and pipeline optionality (Amgen).
Introduction
Comparing AMGN and LLY means weighing two of the most consequential names in global pharmaceuticals — each with a very different growth story. Amgen, a long-established biotechnology anchor with a market capitalization near $200 billion, is betting its future on a next-generation obesity drug that could reshape treatment paradigms. Eli Lilly, now a trillion-dollar healthcare behemoth, is already reaping the rewards of the GLP-1 revolution, with revenue surging over 44% year-over-year. For traders and investors evaluating relative performance, market positioning, and forward risk-reward, this stock comparison examines where each company stands in the current market environment and what separates them as potential portfolio holdings.
AMGN Overview and Recent Performance
Amgen Inc., headquartered in Thousand Oaks, California, is one of the world's largest independent biotechnology companies. Its portfolio spans general medicine (including cardiovascular and bone health), oncology, inflammation, and rare disease — the latter bolstered significantly by the 2023 acquisition of Horizon Therapeutics. Major revenue contributors include Repatha, Prolia, Enbrel, Otezla, Tepezza, and Kyprolis, among dozens of commercialized therapies. In the most recent quarter, Amgen reported earnings per share of $5.15, beating consensus estimates, on revenue of $8.62 billion — up 5.8% year-over-year. Over the trailing twelve months, the stock has gained approximately 27%, reflecting measured optimism about its pipeline.
The central narrative around AMGN in recent weeks has been the progress of MariTide (maridebart cafraglutide, formerly AMG 133), an investigational obesity therapy now in Phase 3 clinical trials. Unlike the weekly injectables currently dominating the market, MariTide is designed as a bispecific molecule targeting both GIP (glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide) and GLP-1 receptors, with a potential dosing schedule of once monthly or even once quarterly. Recent updates include completed Phase 1 bioavailability studies comparing injection formats and the initiation of the MARITIME-SWITCH trial, which evaluates patients transitioning from existing GLP-1 drugs to MariTide. However, sentiment has been tempered by pipeline setbacks — Amgen recently halted a late-stage bemarituzumab gastric cancer trial and terminated a Phase 3 rocatinlimab eczema study, raising questions about the durability of its broader R&D engine. The stock's beta of 0.41 indicates relatively low volatility compared to the broader market.
LLY Overview and Recent Performance
Eli Lilly and Company, based in Indianapolis, Indiana, has emerged as the undisputed leader in the global obesity and diabetes therapeutics market. Its incretin-based portfolio — anchored by Mounjaro (for type 2 diabetes) and Zepbound (for obesity) — has driven extraordinary financial results. In the most recent quarter, Lilly delivered earnings per share of $8.55, crushing estimates of $6.97, while revenue surged 55.5% year-over-year to $19.80 billion. Full-year 2025 revenue reached approximately $65.2 billion, representing 44.7% growth. The stock has returned roughly 56% over the past twelve months and more than 430% over five years, pushing its market capitalization above $1.1 trillion.
Recent weeks have underscored Lilly's ambition to extend its lead. The company announced a $2.8 billion acquisition of AtaiBeckley, a developer of psychedelic-based therapies for treatment-resistant depression, signaling expansion beyond metabolic disease into neuroscience. Lilly's oral GLP-1 candidate orforglipron is advancing toward launch, which could further broaden its addressable market. Meanwhile, the company now has 36 active Phase 3 programs across obesity, oncology, immunology, and neuroscience. Manufacturing remains a strategic priority, with over $50 billion in U.S. investments announced since 2020 to expand production capacity. The stock carries a premium valuation — a P/E ratio near 41.85 — reflecting the market's confidence that Lilly's growth trajectory can outlast competitive pressures, though some analysts note that price erosion from government reimbursement agreements may partially offset volume gains.
Trending AI Robots
For traders seeking an algorithmic edge in comparing stocks like AMGN and LLY, Tickeron's Trending AI Robots page offers a curated selection of AI-powered trading bots designed for the current market environment. Tickeron hosts hundreds of AI trading bots that collectively trade thousands of different tickers, but only the most consistent and market-adapted performers earn a place in this featured section. These bots span diverse trading styles — from swing trading and trend following to intraday pattern recognition — and each bot operates with its own strategy, timeframe, risk parameters, and track record. Some bots in the Trending section have demonstrated realized gains in the double-digit percentage range over recent periods, while others emphasize high win rates or specialized sector focus. The page allows users to explore bot statistics, trading histories, and the specific tickers each bot follows. To discover which AI-driven strategies are currently resonating with market conditions, visit the Trending AI Robots page and explore the available options.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The contrast between these two pharmaceutical leaders is striking across virtually every dimension of analysis. Growth trajectory: Eli Lilly is in the midst of a historic revenue expansion, with its incretin franchise generating blockbuster-level demand that shows few signs of slowing. Amgen, by comparison, is posting mid-single-digit revenue growth and is still in the investment phase for its obesity ambitions. Valuation: Lilly trades at a significant premium — its P/E multiple of roughly 41.9 reflects approximately 63% premium to Amgen's multiple of approximately 25.5. This means investors are paying substantially more for each dollar of Lilly's current earnings, betting on sustained hypergrowth. Diversification: Amgen's portfolio is notably broader, spanning rare disease (via Horizon), oncology, bone health, cardiovascular care, and inflammation — which provides multiple revenue streams and some insulation from single-product risk. Lilly's fortunes are increasingly concentrated in its metabolic disease franchise, creating a higher-risk, higher-reward profile. Pipeline catalysts: Lilly's orforglipron (oral GLP-1) launch and Amgen's MariTide Phase 3 data represent the most consequential catalysts for each stock over the next 12 to 18 months. Risk factors: Amgen faces patent cliffs on Enbrel and Prolia, with biosimilar competition accelerating; Lilly must contend with pricing pressure from government payers, potential competition from oral obesity drugs, and the burden of very high market expectations embedded in its valuation. Market sentiment: Analysts overwhelmingly favor Lilly (24 Buy ratings, 1 Sell), while Amgen's consensus is more cautious (11 Buy, 15 Hold, 2 Sell), reflecting skepticism about whether its pipeline can fully offset legacy revenue erosion.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, relative momentum, and catalyst positioning, Tickeron's AI-driven analysis would likely favor LLY in the current market environment — but with important caveats. Eli Lilly's trend architecture is objectively stronger: revenue growth exceeding 40%, sustained earnings beats, a dominant market position in the highest-growth therapeutic category in pharmaceuticals, and robust institutional accumulation. These are precisely the types of signals that trend-following and momentum-oriented AI models tend to prioritize. Amgen, however, presents a more probabilistically complex case: its lower valuation and diversified cash flows offer defensive characteristics, and MariTide's differentiated dosing profile (potentially quarterly) could make it a genuine disruptor if Phase 3 data confirms the efficacy and safety profile seen in earlier studies. An AI model weighting valuation factors, pipeline optionality, and risk-adjusted return potential might assign a more favorable probability score to Amgen than pure momentum models would suggest. Ultimately, the AI verdict leans toward Lilly for its current trend strength and market leadership, while recognizing that Amgen's risk-reward profile may improve materially if its obesity program continues to advance without additional pipeline setbacks.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AMGN is a StrongBuy and LLY is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AMGN’s FA Score shows that 4 FA rating(s) are green whileLLY’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- AMGN’s FA Score: 4 green, 1 red.
- LLY’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AMGN’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while LLY’s TA Score has 2 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AMGN’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- LLY’s TA Score: 2 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
AMGN (@Pharmaceuticals: Major) experienced а +2.43% price change this week, while LLY (@Pharmaceuticals: Major) price change was -3.95% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Pharmaceuticals: Major industry was -1.41%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -2.13%, and the average quarterly price growth was +3.17%.
Reported Earning Dates
AMGN is expected to report earnings on Aug 04, 2026.
LLY is expected to report earnings on Aug 05, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Pharmaceuticals: Major (-1.41% weekly)The Major Pharmaceuticals industry includes companies that are involved in various processes of creating drugs to treat/prevent diseases. These companies engage in research, testing and manufacturing, as well as the distribution of pharmaceuticals into markets. Johnson & Johnson, Merck & Co., Inc., Pfizer Inc. and Novartis are among the largest companies in this category.
| AMGN | LLY | AMGN / LLY | |
| Capitalization | 208B | 1.02T | 20% |
| EBITDA | 16.7B | 36.2B | 46% |
| Gain YTD | 19.384 | 7.263 | 267% |
| P/E Ratio | 26.80 | 40.81 | 66% |
| Revenue | 37.2B | 72.2B | 52% |
| Total Cash | 12B | 5.28B | 227% |
| Total Debt | 57.3B | 43.4B | 132% |
AMGN | LLY | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 18 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 10 Undervalued | 60 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 17 | 12 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 12 | 12 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 17 | 43 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 49 | 84 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
AMGN's Valuation (10) in the Biotechnology industry is somewhat better than the same rating for LLY (60) in the Pharmaceuticals Major industry. This means that AMGN’s stock grew somewhat faster than LLY’s over the last 12 months.
LLY's Profit vs Risk Rating (12) in the Pharmaceuticals Major industry is in the same range as AMGN (17) in the Biotechnology industry. This means that LLY’s stock grew similarly to AMGN’s over the last 12 months.
LLY's SMR Rating (12) in the Pharmaceuticals Major industry is in the same range as AMGN (12) in the Biotechnology industry. This means that LLY’s stock grew similarly to AMGN’s over the last 12 months.
AMGN's Price Growth Rating (17) in the Biotechnology industry is in the same range as LLY (43) in the Pharmaceuticals Major industry. This means that AMGN’s stock grew similarly to LLY’s over the last 12 months.
AMGN's P/E Growth Rating (49) in the Biotechnology industry is somewhat better than the same rating for LLY (84) in the Pharmaceuticals Major industry. This means that AMGN’s stock grew somewhat faster than LLY’s over the last 12 months.
| AMGN | LLY | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 70% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 52% | 2 days ago 75% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 61% | 2 days ago 66% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 61% | 2 days ago 47% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 61% | 2 days ago 60% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 59% | 2 days ago 58% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 59% | 5 days ago 70% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 13 days ago 51% | 2 days ago 56% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 39% | 4 days ago 53% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 54% | 2 days ago 75% |
Advertisement
| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| MFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| FGEAX | 29.44 | 0.15 | +0.51% |
| Fidelity Advisor Glbl Capital Apprec A | |||
| WVMIX | 13.60 | -0.02 | -0.15% |
| William Blair Mid Cap Value I | |||
| ACMVX | 16.91 | -0.04 | -0.24% |
| American Century Mid Cap Value Inv | |||
| NTKLX | 81.39 | -0.47 | -0.57% |
| Voya Multi-Manager International Sm Cp A | |||
| DVSMX | 30.00 | -0.25 | -0.83% |
| Driehaus Small Cap Growth Investor | |||
AMGN and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AMGN has been loosely correlated with BIIB. These tickers have moved in lockstep 62% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if AMGN jumps, then BIIB could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To AMGN | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMGN | 100% | -0.64% | ||
| BIIB - AMGN | 62% Loosely correlated | -2.40% | ||
| PFE - AMGN | 52% Loosely correlated | +0.40% | ||
| GILD - AMGN | 52% Loosely correlated | -0.82% | ||
| MRK - AMGN | 50% Loosely correlated | +0.32% | ||
| ABBV - AMGN | 47% Loosely correlated | -2.51% | ||
More | ||||
LLY and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, LLY has been loosely correlated with AMGN. These tickers have moved in lockstep 44% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if LLY jumps, then AMGN could also see price increases.