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AMGN vs LLY
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Amgen (AMGN) vs. Eli Lilly (LLY) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Different growth profiles: AMGN offers a value-oriented, dividend-paying biotech with a broad portfolio, while LLY is a premium-priced, high-growth obesity and diabetes franchise leader.
- Momentum favors LLY: Eli Lilly has broken toward record highs on obesity-category strength, while Amgen has pulled back from its 52-week high amid debate over its experimental obesity drug.
- Valuation gap is wide: LLY trades at a much richer multiple than AMGN, reflecting faster near-term growth but also higher expectations.
- Obesity is the shared battleground: Both stocks are increasingly priced on their metabolic-disease pipelines, not just current earnings.
- Risk profiles differ: AMGN carries biosimilar erosion and leverage concerns, while LLY faces concentration risk in a single blockbuster category.
Introduction
Amgen and Eli Lilly are two of the most closely watched names in U.S. healthcare, yet they occupy very different corners of the sector. Amgen is a diversified biotechnology company with a maturing portfolio and a growing bet on next-generation obesity medicine. Eli Lilly has become the world's largest drugmaker by market value, powered by its GLP-1 (glucagon-like peptide-1) metabolic franchise. This stock comparison is relevant for investors weighing steady, income-generating value against high-growth momentum, and for traders tracking how the market is rotating between these two healthcare leaders amid shifting sentiment around the weight-loss drug opportunity.
AMGN Overview and Recent Performance
Amgen Inc. (AMGN) discovers, develops, and markets human therapeutics across oncology, cardiometabolic disease, inflammation, and rare diseases. In its most recent quarter, revenue rose roughly 10% year over year, and management raised full-year guidance, supported by newer growth products such as Repatha, TEZSPIRE, EVENITY, and the oncology therapy IMDELLTRA, which grew sharply. These growth drivers now account for a large share of product sales, helping offset declines in older franchises like Prolia and Enbrel, which face biosimilar competition.
Over recent months, AMGN rallied strongly, with analysts at Cantor Fitzgerald, RBC, and UBS raising price targets. Much of the enthusiasm centers on MariTide, an experimental obesity treatment designed for monthly or less-frequent dosing, now advancing through Phase 3 trials. In recent weeks, however, the stock has pulled back from its highs after a sell-side note raised questions about potential bone-density effects tied to the drug — a concern Amgen publicly disputed. This tug-of-war between pipeline optimism and clinical uncertainty has shaped the stock's recent relative performance.
LLY Overview and Recent Performance
Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) is a global pharmaceutical leader whose growth is anchored in the GLP-1 class, including Mounjaro and Zepbound, the oral agent Foundayo, and the next-generation candidate retatrutide. In its most recent quarter, revenue climbed nearly 48% year over year to about $23 billion, and the company raised its full-year revenue outlook, reflecting strong underlying demand across its metabolic portfolio.
In recent market activity, LLY surged toward and then above its prior 52-week high, supported by a Bank of America price-target increase and a positive regulatory recommendation in Europe for Foundayo. The company also reported favorable Phase 3 data for its immunology drug Omvoh in pediatric patients. Sentiment has been reinforced by evidence that Foundayo is capturing meaningful share of new oral GLP-1 prescriptions, strengthening the case that Eli Lilly is extending — rather than merely defending — its leadership in the obesity category.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies differ most sharply on growth and valuation. Eli Lilly (LLY) is delivering double-digit-plus revenue expansion with an obesity and diabetes franchise that analysts expect to keep compounding, but investors pay for it: the stock trades at a premium earnings multiple. Amgen (AMGN), by contrast, offers a modest forward valuation, a meaningful dividend yield, and steadier single-digit growth, with its obesity potential still unproven and priced as optionality.
Their risk profiles also diverge. AMGN faces ongoing biosimilar erosion in legacy drugs, elevated leverage from past acquisitions, and clinical uncertainty around MariTide. LLY carries concentration risk in a single therapeutic category, heavy competition from Novo Nordisk, and sensitivity to pricing and reimbursement policy. In terms of sector exposure, both are pure-play healthcare, but Amgen's diversified portfolio provides broader therapeutic balance, while Eli Lilly's market positioning is tightly linked to the metabolic-disease growth story that has recently dominated sentiment.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, catalyst momentum, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely favor LLY in the current environment. Eli Lilly has demonstrated stronger and more consistent upward price trend, supported by confirmed revenue growth, positive regulatory developments, and analyst target increases that align with the stock's direction. Amgen (AMGN) retains attractive value characteristics and meaningful pipeline optionality, but its recent pullback and the unresolved clinical questions around MariTide introduce more near-term uncertainty. This assessment reflects a probabilistic read of current trends and catalysts rather than a definitive forecast, and positioning could shift as new data and market conditions emerge.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AMGN is a Buy and LLY is a Buy.
AMGN in upward trend: 10-day moving average moved above 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026
The 10-day moving average for AMGN crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 10 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 14, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on AMGN as a result. In 45 of 73 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for AMGN just turned positive on September 24, 2026. Looking at past instances where AMGN's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 27 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
AMGN moved above its 50-day moving average on October 09, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +5.13% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AMGN advanced for three days, in 189 of 311 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 151 of 272 cases where AMGN Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 56%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for AMGN moved out of overbought territory on October 23, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 26 of the 46 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 57%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 7 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AMGN declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 47%.
AMGN broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 5 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 61, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 8 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. AMGN’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 15 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 26 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 80 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (20.318) is normal, around the industry mean (-2.730). P/E Ratio (27.081) is within average values for comparable stocks, (21.349). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.524) is also within normal values, averaging (5.738). Dividend Yield (0.023) settles around the average of (0.040) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.371) is also within normal values, averaging (4.033).
Aroon Indicator for LLY shows an upward move is likely
LLY's Aroon Indicator triggered a bullish signal on October 19, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor detected that the AroonUp green line is above 70 while the AroonDown red line is below 30. When the up indicator moves above 70 and the down indicator remains below 30, it is a sign that the stock could be setting up for a bullish move. Traders may want to buy the stock or look to buy calls options. A.I.dvisor looked at 297 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator showed a similar pattern. In 230 of the 297 cases, the stock moved higher in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move higher at 77%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 14, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on LLY as a result. In 51 of 82 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for LLY just turned positive on October 07, 2026. Looking at past instances where LLY's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 30 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
LLY moved above its 50-day moving average on October 14, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for LLY crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 10 of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
Following a +4.00% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where LLY advanced for three days, in 258 of 371 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for LLY moved out of overbought territory on October 23, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 34 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 21 of the 34 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 62%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 6 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where LLY declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 55%.
LLY broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 14, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 6 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. LLY’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 7 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 61, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 14 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 29 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 65 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 87 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: LLY's P/B Ratio (33.505) is slightly higher than the industry average of (-2.730). P/E Ratio (42.662) is within average values for comparable stocks, (21.349). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.170) is also within normal values, averaging (5.738). Dividend Yield (0.005) settles around the average of (0.040) among similar stocks. LLY's P/S Ratio (12.804) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (4.033).
AMGN | LLY | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 80 | 34 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 80 Overvalued | 87 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 5 | 7 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 15 | 14 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 8 | 6 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 26 | 65 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 29 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
AMGN's Valuation (80) in the Biotechnology industry is in the same range as LLY (87) in the Pharmaceuticals Major industry. This means that AMGN’s stock grew similarly to LLY’s over the last 12 months.
AMGN's Profit vs Risk Rating (5) in the Biotechnology industry is in the same range as LLY (7) in the Pharmaceuticals Major industry. This means that AMGN’s stock grew similarly to LLY’s over the last 12 months.
LLY's SMR Rating (14) in the Pharmaceuticals Major industry is in the same range as AMGN (15) in the Biotechnology industry. This means that LLY’s stock grew similarly to AMGN’s over the last 12 months.
LLY's Price Growth Rating (6) in the Pharmaceuticals Major industry is in the same range as AMGN (8) in the Biotechnology industry. This means that LLY’s stock grew similarly to AMGN’s over the last 12 months.
AMGN's P/E Growth Rating (26) in the Biotechnology industry is somewhat better than the same rating for LLY (65) in the Pharmaceuticals Major industry. This means that AMGN’s stock grew somewhat faster than LLY’s over the last 12 months.
| AMGN | LLY | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 62% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 47% | 2 days ago 60% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 62% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 67% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 69% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 60% | 2 days ago 69% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 10 days ago 61% | 9 days ago 70% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 47% | 23 days ago 55% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 40% | 2 days ago 53% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 56% | 2 days ago 77% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AMGN’s FA Score shows that 4 FA rating(s) are green while LLY’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- AMGN’s FA Score: 4 green, 1 red.
- LLY’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AMGN’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while LLY’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AMGN’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- LLY’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
AMGN (@Pharmaceuticals: Major) experienced а +1.57% price change this week, while LLY (@Pharmaceuticals: Major) price change was +1.31% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Pharmaceuticals: Major industry was -0.08%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -4.91%, and the average quarterly price growth was +4.21%.
Reported Earning Dates
AMGN is expected to report earnings on Nov 03, 2026.
LLY is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Pharmaceuticals: Major (-0.08% weekly)The Major Pharmaceuticals industry includes companies that are involved in various processes of creating drugs to treat/prevent diseases. These companies engage in research, testing and manufacturing, as well as the distribution of pharmaceuticals into markets. Johnson & Johnson, Merck & Co., Inc., Pfizer Inc. and Novartis are among the largest companies in this category.
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AMGN and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AMGN has been loosely correlated with PFE. These tickers have moved in lockstep 51% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if AMGN jumps, then PFE could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To AMGN | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMGN | 100% | -1.79% | ||
| PFE - AMGN | 51% Loosely correlated | -1.28% | ||
| GILD - AMGN | 48% Loosely correlated | -0.73% | ||
| ABBV - AMGN | 48% Loosely correlated | +0.16% | ||
| BIIB - AMGN | 47% Loosely correlated | -1.24% | ||
| MRK - AMGN | 47% Loosely correlated | -1.34% | ||
More | ||||
LLY and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, LLY has been loosely correlated with JNJ. These tickers have moved in lockstep 46% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if LLY jumps, then JNJ could also see price increases.