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LLY vs NVS
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Eli Lilly (LLY) vs. Novartis (NVS) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- LLY has delivered stronger recent momentum, climbing roughly 18%–20% year to date and more than 55% over the past year on booming GLP-1 (glucagon-like peptide-1) obesity and diabetes drug demand.
- NVS has been more range-bound, with its American depositary receipts (ADRs, U.S.-listed shares of a foreign company) up a more modest percentage this year while absorbing clinical trial setbacks.
- The two companies occupy different risk profiles: LLY is concentrated around its cardiometabolic franchise, while NVS is more diversified but faces the largest patent expiration in its history.
- Relative performance has diverged sharply, with LLY benefiting from access expansion and NVS weighed down by disappointing pipeline readouts.
- Market positioning favors LLY on growth and trend consistency, while NVS offers a steadier, dividend-paying, value-oriented profile.
- For more details on each name, explore LLY Major News and LLY Today's Price Move, as well as NVS Major News and NVS Today's Price Move.
- To see how automated strategies are positioning for the current market, explore Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines two of the world's largest pharmaceutical companies — Eli Lilly (LLY) and Novartis (NVS) — which have moved in markedly different directions in recent market activity. LLY has become a momentum favorite on the strength of its obesity and diabetes portfolio, while NVS presents a more diversified, dividend-oriented profile facing near-term headwinds. Growth-focused traders evaluating relative performance and trend strength, as well as longer-term investors weighing concentration risk against pipeline breadth, may find this comparison useful. Both are large-cap healthcare leaders, but their growth drivers, risk factors, and market positioning differ considerably, making a side-by-side review especially relevant in the current environment.
LLY Overview and Recent Performance
Eli Lilly, headquartered in Indianapolis, has become the largest publicly traded drugmaker, with a market capitalization above $1 trillion and a stock price that has traded above $1,000 per share. Its performance has been powered by its cardiometabolic franchise, led by Mounjaro (tirzepatide, for type 2 diabetes) and Zepbound (for obesity), which together have generated the bulk of revenue. The company has also launched Foundayo (orforglipron), an oral GLP-1 pill, as it expands beyond injectable treatments.
In recent weeks, LLY has reached record highs, supported by access expansion rather than single clinical events. Broader pharmacy benefit manager (PBM, companies that manage prescription drug benefits) coverage and new Medicare Part D access at a $50 monthly copay beginning July 1, 2026 have widened the addressable market for its obesity therapies. Revenue growth has remained robust, with recent quarters showing roughly 48% year-over-year sales growth, and management has raised its full-year revenue outlook. Analysts have lifted price targets into earnings, though the stock trades at a premium valuation that reflects high growth expectations.
NVS Overview and Recent Performance
Novartis, based in Basel, Switzerland, is a diversified innovative-medicines company focused on oncology, immunology, neuroscience, and cardiovascular-renal-metabolic disease. Unlike LLY, its growth is spread across multiple products, including Kisqali (breast cancer), Kesimpta (multiple sclerosis), Pluvicto (prostate cancer), Cosentyx (immunology), Leqvio (cholesterol), and Scemblix (a leukemia treatment).
Recent market activity has been more challenging for NVS. The company is navigating the largest patent expiration in its history, pressuring sales of established medicines such as Entresto and Promacta. Over recent months, investor sentiment has been tested by several pipeline setbacks, including a failed late-stage muscle-wasting program acquired through its Avidity deal, disappointing cholesterol-drug data, and multiple sclerosis data for remibrutinib that trailed a rival product from Roche. These developments triggered notable single-day declines and prompted a major shareholder to publicly call for board-level governance changes. Despite these headwinds, Novartis maintains a growing dividend and has reaffirmed its financial guidance, with management pointing to a broad pipeline and mid-term growth plans.
Trending AI Robots
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two stocks lies in their growth trajectories. LLY is a concentrated growth story, with two drugs accounting for the majority of revenue and a pipeline built largely around extending its metabolic franchise. That concentration amplifies upside when demand and access expand, but it also heightens sensitivity to pricing pressure or any stumble in the GLP-1 market. NVS is more diversified across therapeutic areas and geographies, which historically smooths volatility, yet it now faces a different risk: patent expirations and the need to offset lost sales through newer products and dealmaking.
Recent momentum favors LLY, whose trend has been upward and catalyst-rich, while NVS has been more uneven as clinical data disappointed. On valuation, LLY carries a higher multiple reflecting faster growth, whereas NVS trades at a lower multiple with a dividend yield, appealing to income-oriented investors. Sector exposure also differs: both are in large-cap pharmaceuticals, but LLY's fortunes are closely tied to the obesity market, while NVS spans oncology, immunology, and cardiovascular care. Sentiment has generally rewarded LLY's execution and penalized NVS's setbacks.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, catalyst momentum, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely favor LLY over NVS in the current environment. LLY has demonstrated a steadier upward trend, stronger revenue growth, and a fuller slate of near-term catalysts tied to obesity-drug access and pipeline advancement. NVS, by contrast, has shown less consistent momentum amid clinical disappointments and patent-expiry pressure. That said, AI-driven assessments are probabilistic, not deterministic — NVS's diversified portfolio and income characteristics could appeal in a risk-off rotation, and its valuation may prove attractive to certain strategies. The relative gap could narrow quickly if either company's catalysts shift.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is LLY is a Hold and NVS is a Buy.
LLY in upward trend: 10-day moving average broke above 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026
The 10-day moving average for LLY crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 85%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 14, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on LLY as a result. In 51 of 82 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for LLY just turned positive on October 07, 2026. Looking at past instances where LLY's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 36 of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 82%.
LLY moved above its 50-day moving average on October 14, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +10.03% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where LLY advanced for three days, in 258 of 371 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 233 of 297 cases where LLY Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 78%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 11 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where LLY declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 55%.
LLY broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 29, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 4 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. LLY’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 5 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 60, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 14 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 26 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 88 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: LLY's P/B Ratio (37.296) is slightly higher than the industry average of (-1.376). P/E Ratio (47.489) is within average values for comparable stocks, (21.842). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.170) is also within normal values, averaging (5.738). Dividend Yield (0.005) settles around the average of (0.039) among similar stocks. LLY's P/S Ratio (12.804) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (4.033).
NVS's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for NVS turned positive on September 24, 2026. Looking at past instances where NVS's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 32 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 14, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on NVS as a result. In 47 of 80 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 59%.
NVS moved above its 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for NVS crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
Following a +3.80% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NVS advanced for three days, in 187 of 339 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 55%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 153 of 318 cases where NVS Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 48%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 12 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NVS declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 45%.
NVS broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 20, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 5 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 60, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 12 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 33 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 42 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. NVS’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 46 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (7.357) is normal, around the industry mean (-1.376). P/E Ratio (24.106) is within average values for comparable stocks, (21.842). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (3.441) is also within normal values, averaging (5.738). NVS has a moderately high Dividend Yield (0.118) as compared to the industry average of (0.039). P/S Ratio (4.715) is also within normal values, averaging (4.033).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
LLY | NVS | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 46 | 21 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 88 Overvalued | 46 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 5 | 5 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 14 | 33 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 4 | 42 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 26 | 12 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 25 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
NVS's Valuation (46) in the Pharmaceuticals Major industry is somewhat better than the same rating for LLY (88). This means that NVS’s stock grew somewhat faster than LLY’s over the last 12 months.
NVS's Profit vs Risk Rating (5) in the Pharmaceuticals Major industry is in the same range as LLY (5). This means that NVS’s stock grew similarly to LLY’s over the last 12 months.
LLY's SMR Rating (14) in the Pharmaceuticals Major industry is in the same range as NVS (33). This means that LLY’s stock grew similarly to NVS’s over the last 12 months.
LLY's Price Growth Rating (4) in the Pharmaceuticals Major industry is somewhat better than the same rating for NVS (42). This means that LLY’s stock grew somewhat faster than NVS’s over the last 12 months.
NVS's P/E Growth Rating (12) in the Pharmaceuticals Major industry is in the same range as LLY (26). This means that NVS’s stock grew similarly to LLY’s over the last 12 months.
| LLY | NVS | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 56% | 3 days ago 41% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 52% | 3 days ago 44% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 62% | 3 days ago 59% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 82% | 7 days ago 71% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 70% | 3 days ago 55% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 69% | 3 days ago 51% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 70% | 6 days ago 55% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | about 1 month ago 55% | 27 days ago 45% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 47% | 3 days ago 35% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 78% | 3 days ago 48% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
LLY’s FA Score shows that 4 FA rating(s) are green while NVS’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- LLY’s FA Score: 4 green, 1 red.
- NVS’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
LLY’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while NVS’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- LLY’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- NVS’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
LLY (@Pharmaceuticals: Major) experienced а +11.31% price change this week, while NVS (@Pharmaceuticals: Major) price change was +6.40% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Pharmaceuticals: Major industry was +0.16%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -2.39%, and the average quarterly price growth was +4.91%.
Reported Earning Dates
LLY is expected to report earnings on Feb 10, 2027.
NVS is expected to report earnings on Feb 03, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Pharmaceuticals: Major (+0.16% weekly)The Major Pharmaceuticals industry includes companies that are involved in various processes of creating drugs to treat/prevent diseases. These companies engage in research, testing and manufacturing, as well as the distribution of pharmaceuticals into markets. Johnson & Johnson, Merck & Co., Inc., Pfizer Inc. and Novartis are among the largest companies in this category.
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LLY and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, LLY has been loosely correlated with JNJ. These tickers have moved in lockstep 46% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if LLY jumps, then JNJ could also see price increases.
NVS and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, NVS has been loosely correlated with GSK. These tickers have moved in lockstep 60% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if NVS jumps, then GSK could also see price increases.