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LLY vs MRK
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Eli Lilly (LLY) vs. Merck (MRK) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- LLY reported quarterly revenue growth of roughly 39% year over year, while MRK posted about 5% growth, highlighting a sharp divergence in near-term momentum.
- LLY raised its full-year revenue guidance for the third time this year, whereas MRK delivered a more modest guidance increase alongside a year-over-year earnings decline.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: LLY is currently favored over MRK, reflecting stronger trend consistency, superior growth momentum, and more visible near-term catalysts.
- MRK trades as a more diversified, value-oriented pharmaceutical name but carries concentration risk tied to the 2028 U.S. patent expiry of its flagship Keytruda franchise.
- For deeper context, explore LLY Major News and LLY Today's Price Move, as well as MRK Major News and MRK Today's Price Move.
- To see how automated strategies are positioning across the market, explore Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) and Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK) are two of the largest and most closely watched pharmaceutical companies in the world, yet they currently sit at very different points in their growth cycles. This stock comparison is relevant for investors and traders weighing high-growth momentum against a more diversified, income-oriented profile. Both companies reported quarterly results in the same recent period, making this a timely moment to assess their relative performance, market positioning, and risk factors side by side.
LLY Overview and Recent Performance
Eli Lilly has become the most valuable pharmaceutical company globally, with a market capitalization exceeding $1 trillion, driven primarily by its GLP-1 (glucagon-like peptide-1) franchise in diabetes and obesity. In its most recent quarter, LLY reported revenue of approximately $24.4 billion, up 39% year over year, and raised its full-year revenue outlook for the third time to a range of $91 billion to $92 billion. Its blockbuster diabetes treatment Mounjaro generated about $10.7 billion in quarterly sales, while the obesity injection Zepbound contributed roughly $5.4 billion.
Sentiment has been supported by durable demand, expansion of Medicare coverage for weight-loss treatments, and positive clinical data on retatrutide, its next-generation weight-loss candidate. The stock has trended higher in recent weeks, reaching record levels, even as its newer oral obesity pill Foundayo trailed analyst expectations. Management trimmed its adjusted EPS (earnings per share) guidance slightly due to acquisition-related charges, a factor that did little to dampen the broader momentum narrative.
MRK Overview and Recent Performance
Merck is a diversified pharmaceutical and animal-health company whose near-term results remain anchored by Keytruda, the world's top-selling cancer drug. In its most recent quarter, MRK reported revenue of about $18.1 billion, up 5% year over year, while adjusted earnings per share declined to $2.49 from a year earlier. The company raised the midpoint of its full-year guidance and lifted its adjusted EPS outlook, supported by strength in oncology and newer products such as Winrevair and Keytruda Qlex, a subcutaneous (under-the-skin) formulation of its flagship therapy.
Investor attention has centered on the impending 2028 U.S. patent expiry for intravenous Keytruda and on the company's efforts to transition patients to longer-patented Qlex. Recent market activity has also been influenced by news around its investigational cancer vaccine developed with Moderna. The stock has delivered strong year-to-date gains, though its growth profile remains more moderate than that of LLY.
Trending AI Robots
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The core contrast between these two names is growth versus diversification. LLY is a concentrated, high-velocity growth story, with the majority of its momentum tied to GLP-1 diabetes and obesity treatments. This concentration has produced exceptional revenue expansion and record share-price levels but also leaves the stock sensitive to pricing policy, competition from Novo Nordisk, and the rollout of its oral franchise. MRK, by contrast, spans oncology, vaccines, cardiovascular, and animal health, offering a broader revenue base and a more value-oriented valuation, but its relative performance is constrained by slower growth, generic erosion in legacy products such as Januvia and Bridion, and the looming Keytruda patent cliff.
On momentum, LLY has been the stronger performer in relative terms, with accelerating revenue and repeated guidance increases. MRK has benefited from a recovery in its Gardasil vaccine franchise and the successful early uptake of Keytruda Qlex, though its earnings trajectory is being pressured by higher research-and-development spending. Risk profiles differ as well: LLY carries valuation and concentration risk, while MRK carries patent-expiry and pipeline-execution risk.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, relative momentum, growth durability, and the visibility of near-term catalysts, Tickeron's AI framework would currently favor LLY over MRK. LLY has demonstrated a stronger and more persistent uptrend, backed by accelerating revenue and repeated upward guidance revisions, while MRK presents a steadier but slower-growth profile with greater medium-term uncertainty around Keytruda's patent expiry. This assessment reflects a probabilistic, momentum-based comparison rather than a definitive prediction, and market conditions may shift the balance over time.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is LLY is a Hold and MRK is a Hold.
LLY's RSI Oscillator recovers from overbought zone
The 10-day RSI Oscillator for LLY moved out of overbought territory on November 05, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. Traders may want to look at selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 34 instances where the indicator moved out of the overbought zone. In 23 of the 34 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move down at 68%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 40 of 64 cases where LLY's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where LLY declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 54%.
LLY broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 29, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 14, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on LLY as a result. In 55 of 81 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for LLY just turned positive on October 07, 2026. Looking at past instances where LLY's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 36 of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 82%.
LLY moved above its 50-day moving average on October 14, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for LLY crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 9 of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
Following a +10.03% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where LLY advanced for three days, in 258 of 371 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 216 of 297 cases where LLY Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 73%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 4 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. LLY’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 4 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 59, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 14 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 86 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: LLY's P/B Ratio (35.624) is slightly higher than the industry average of (-1.360). P/E Ratio (45.360) is within average values for comparable stocks, (21.695). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.170) is also within normal values, averaging (5.738). Dividend Yield (0.005) settles around the average of (0.038) among similar stocks. LLY's P/S Ratio (12.804) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (4.033).
MRK in -2.41% downward trend, declining for three consecutive days on November 06, 2026
Moving lower for three straight days is viewed as a bearish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future declines. Considering data from situations where MRK declined for three days, in 140 of 273 cases, the price declined further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 51%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day moving average for MRK crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 13, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 7 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 44%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 33 of 52 cases where MRK's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 06, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on MRK as a result. In 55 of 85 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for MRK just turned positive on October 30, 2026. Looking at past instances where MRK's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 27 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 54%.
MRK moved above its 50-day moving average on November 04, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +6.09% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MRK advanced for three days, in 191 of 338 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
MRK may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 177 of 265 cases where MRK Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 67%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 1 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 8 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. MRK’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 29 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 59, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 79 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 88 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (8.633) is normal, around the industry mean (-1.360). MRK's P/E Ratio (116.452) is considerably higher than the industry average of (21.695). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.716) is also within normal values, averaging (5.738). Dividend Yield (0.023) settles around the average of (0.038) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.402) is also within normal values, averaging (4.033).
LLY | MRK | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 30 | 71 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 86 Overvalued | 88 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 4 | 29 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 14 | 79 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 4 | 8 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 45 | 1 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 18 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
LLY's Valuation (86) in the Pharmaceuticals Major industry is in the same range as MRK (88). This means that LLY’s stock grew similarly to MRK’s over the last 12 months.
LLY's Profit vs Risk Rating (4) in the Pharmaceuticals Major industry is in the same range as MRK (29). This means that LLY’s stock grew similarly to MRK’s over the last 12 months.
LLY's SMR Rating (14) in the Pharmaceuticals Major industry is somewhat better than the same rating for MRK (79). This means that LLY’s stock grew somewhat faster than MRK’s over the last 12 months.
LLY's Price Growth Rating (4) in the Pharmaceuticals Major industry is in the same range as MRK (8). This means that LLY’s stock grew similarly to MRK’s over the last 12 months.
MRK's P/E Growth Rating (1) in the Pharmaceuticals Major industry is somewhat better than the same rating for LLY (45). This means that MRK’s stock grew somewhat faster than LLY’s over the last 12 months.
| LLY | MRK | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 68% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 63% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 68% | 1 day ago 65% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 82% | 1 day ago 54% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 58% | 1 day ago 49% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 69% | 1 day ago 57% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 70% | 9 days ago 57% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 54% | 1 day ago 51% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 53% | 4 days ago 57% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 73% | 1 day ago 67% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
LLY’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green while MRK’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- LLY’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- MRK’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
LLY’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MRK’s TA Score has 7 bullish TA indicator(s).
- LLY’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- MRK’s TA Score: 7 bullish, 2 bearish.
Price Growth
LLY (@Pharmaceuticals: Major) experienced а -4.48% price change this week, while MRK (@Pharmaceuticals: Major) price change was -1.87% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Pharmaceuticals: Major industry was -0.85%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -1.19%, and the average quarterly price growth was +4.39%.
Reported Earning Dates
LLY is expected to report earnings on Feb 10, 2027.
MRK is expected to report earnings on Feb 02, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Pharmaceuticals: Major (-0.85% weekly)The Major Pharmaceuticals industry includes companies that are involved in various processes of creating drugs to treat/prevent diseases. These companies engage in research, testing and manufacturing, as well as the distribution of pharmaceuticals into markets. Johnson & Johnson, Merck & Co., Inc., Pfizer Inc. and Novartis are among the largest companies in this category.
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LLY and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, LLY has been loosely correlated with JNJ. These tickers have moved in lockstep 46% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if LLY jumps, then JNJ could also see price increases.
MRK and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MRK has been loosely correlated with GSK. These tickers have moved in lockstep 53% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if MRK jumps, then GSK could also see price increases.