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LLY vs MRK
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) vs. Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- LLY has delivered robust revenue growth exceeding 48% year-over-year in recent quarters, fueled by its GLP-1 franchise, while MRK posted more modest 5% growth.
- Recent market activity shows LLY experiencing a pullback of approximately 8% over the past month, contrasting with MRK’s gain of around 8% in the same period.
- LLY completed a $3.8 billion acquisition of AtaiBeckley in September 2026 to expand its neuroscience portfolio.
- MRK maintains a higher dividend yield near 2.3% compared to LLY’s approximately 0.6%.
- Both companies operate in the pharmaceutical sector with strong oncology and metabolic pipelines, though LLY exhibits higher valuation multiples reflective of its growth trajectory.
- Market sentiment remains positive for both, supported by analyst consensus ratings of Buy, with LLY targeting higher absolute price appreciation potential.
Introduction
Pharmaceutical giants Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) and Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK) represent two distinct investment profiles within the healthcare sector. LLY has emerged as a leader in metabolic therapies, while MRK relies heavily on its established oncology portfolio anchored by Keytruda. This comparison examines their relative performance, business drivers, and positioning amid evolving market conditions. Institutional investors, growth-oriented traders, and those seeking sector diversification may find the analysis relevant for evaluating risk-adjusted exposure in large-cap pharmaceuticals.
LLY Overview and Recent Performance
Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) focuses on innovative medicines in diabetes, obesity, oncology, and neuroscience. The company’s stock has shown strong long-term appreciation, with one-year returns near 48% despite recent volatility. In recent weeks, shares declined approximately 8% over the trailing month amid broader market rotations, trading around $1,115 as of mid-September 2026. Second-quarter 2026 results highlighted revenue of $23 billion, up 48% year-over-year, driven by GLP-1 agonists Mounjaro and Zepbound. The firm raised full-year revenue guidance to $85–87 billion. Sentiment received a boost from the September 2026 completion of the $3.8 billion AtaiBeckley acquisition, enhancing the neuroscience pipeline.
MRK Overview and Recent Performance
Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK) is a diversified pharmaceutical company with leading positions in oncology, vaccines, and animal health. Its stock has outperformed broader indices recently, posting roughly 8% gains over the past month and year-to-date returns exceeding 38%, with shares trading near $144 in mid-September 2026. Second-quarter 2026 revenue reached $16.6 billion, reflecting 5% year-over-year growth, supported by Keytruda and animal health products. Pipeline advancements and strategic acquisitions, including Terns Pharmaceuticals, have sustained investor interest. The company offers a higher dividend yield of approximately 2.3%, appealing to income-focused investors amid a stable but slower growth profile compared to peers.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
LLY and MRK differ markedly in growth drivers and valuation. LLY benefits from explosive demand in obesity and diabetes treatments, delivering revenue growth over 48% recently, whereas MRK’s expansion remains in the low-to-mid single digits, anchored by Keytruda. LLY trades at elevated multiples reflecting its momentum, while MRK offers a more attractive dividend yield and lower volatility. Sector exposure overlaps in oncology, yet LLY carries higher execution risk tied to manufacturing scale-up and competition. Recent sentiment favors LLY’s acquisition-driven pipeline expansion, while MRK faces longer-term patent considerations for its flagship product. Trade-offs center on growth versus stability and income.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, growth catalysts, and relative positioning, Tickeron’s AI models currently assign a higher probabilistic edge to LLY over MRK. The company’s sustained revenue acceleration and recent strategic expansion into neuroscience provide clearer momentum signals amid the current market environment, though both equities exhibit favorable sector tailwinds.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is LLY is a Hold and MRK is a Hold.
| LLY | MRK | LLY / MRK | |
| Capitalization | 1.03T | 362B | 284% |
| EBITDA | 41.7B | 14.4B | 290% |
| Gain YTD | 7.799 | 42.411 | 18% |
| P/E Ratio | 38.70 | 117.50 | 33% |
| Revenue | 79.7B | 66.6B | 120% |
| Total Cash | 8.95B | 7.14B | 125% |
| Total Debt | 54.9B | 53.9B | 102% |
LLY | MRK | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 80 | 78 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 50 Fair valued | 12 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 11 | 32 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 14 | 79 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 44 | 38 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 69 | 2 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 75 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MRK's Valuation (12) in the Pharmaceuticals Major industry is somewhat better than the same rating for LLY (50). This means that MRK’s stock grew somewhat faster than LLY’s over the last 12 months.
LLY's Profit vs Risk Rating (11) in the Pharmaceuticals Major industry is in the same range as MRK (32). This means that LLY’s stock grew similarly to MRK’s over the last 12 months.
LLY's SMR Rating (14) in the Pharmaceuticals Major industry is somewhat better than the same rating for MRK (79). This means that LLY’s stock grew somewhat faster than MRK’s over the last 12 months.
MRK's Price Growth Rating (38) in the Pharmaceuticals Major industry is in the same range as LLY (44). This means that MRK’s stock grew similarly to LLY’s over the last 12 months.
MRK's P/E Growth Rating (2) in the Pharmaceuticals Major industry is significantly better than the same rating for LLY (69). This means that MRK’s stock grew significantly faster than LLY’s over the last 12 months.
| LLY | MRK | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 83% | 2 days ago 54% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 70% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 56% | 2 days ago 48% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 44% | 2 days ago 47% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 58% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 56% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 3 days ago 58% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 54% | 9 days ago 51% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 61% | 2 days ago 49% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 63% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
LLY’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while MRK’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- LLY’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- MRK’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
LLY’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MRK’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- LLY’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 7 bearish.
- MRK’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
LLY (@Pharmaceuticals: Major) experienced а +3.34% price change this week, while MRK (@Pharmaceuticals: Major) price change was +2.64% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Pharmaceuticals: Major industry was +1.82%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -6.21%, and the average quarterly price growth was +15.37%.
Reported Earning Dates
LLY is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
MRK is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Pharmaceuticals: Major (+1.82% weekly)The Major Pharmaceuticals industry includes companies that are involved in various processes of creating drugs to treat/prevent diseases. These companies engage in research, testing and manufacturing, as well as the distribution of pharmaceuticals into markets. Johnson & Johnson, Merck & Co., Inc., Pfizer Inc. and Novartis are among the largest companies in this category.
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MRK and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MRK has been loosely correlated with GSK. These tickers have moved in lockstep 53% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if MRK jumps, then GSK could also see price increases.