Advertisement
ARCC vs MAIN
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC) vs. Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both ARCC and MAIN are business development companies (BDCs) that lend to middle-market businesses and distribute most of their income to shareholders as high-yield dividends.
- ARCC is the largest publicly traded BDC, while MAIN is an internally managed BDC focused on the lower middle market.
- ARCC offers a higher yield near 10%, but its recent core earnings dipped below its quarterly dividend, while MAIN pays a lower monthly dividend supplemented by periodic special payouts.
- Credit trends diverged in recent quarters: ARCC reported rising non-accrual loans, whereas MAIN maintained a very low non-accrual rate.
- ARCC recently announced a merger with MidCap Financial, while MAIN has continued a steady run of dividend increases and supplemental distributions.
- For deeper coverage, explore ARCC Major News and ARCC Today's Price Move, as well as MAIN Major News and MAIN Today's Price Move.
- Discover how automated strategies are navigating names like these by visiting Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
Income-focused investors frequently weigh ARCC and MAIN as leading names in the BDC (Business Development Company) sector, which finances middle-market companies and returns income to shareholders. Although both are high-yield specialty lenders, they differ meaningfully in scale, strategy, and payout structure. ARCC is the industry's largest player, spanning hundreds of portfolio companies, while MAIN takes a smaller, internally managed approach concentrated on lower middle market firms. This comparison examines recent performance, credit trends, and market positioning to help readers understand how these two dividend payers stack up.
ARCC Overview and Recent Performance
Ares Capital Corporation is the largest publicly traded BDC, with a diversified portfolio worth roughly $29 billion spread across more than 600 companies. Its lending emphasizes first lien senior secured loans, with about 70% of the portfolio in floating-rate instruments. In recent weeks, ARCC reported third-quarter results that slightly missed analyst expectations, with core earnings per share (EPS) of $0.46 landing just below its $0.48 quarterly dividend. Total investment income declined modestly year over year, partly due to lower fee income. Credit metrics also softened, as non-accrual loans rose to about 2.4% of the portfolio at cost. At the same time, the company announced a roughly $2.6 billion acquisition of MidCap Financial Investment Corporation, which management expects to be accretive to core earnings and supportive of the dividend. Shares have traded near or slightly below net asset value (NAV) in recent market activity, reflecting caution around credit quality and payout coverage.
MAIN Overview and Recent Performance
Main Street Capital Corporation is an internally managed BDC headquartered in Houston that provides long-term debt and equity capital to lower middle market companies, alongside a private loan strategy. Its internally managed structure is frequently cited as a cost advantage versus externally advised peers. In recent quarters, MAIN reported record net asset value per share and strong returns on equity (ROE), while maintaining non-accrual investments at roughly 0.6% of the portfolio at fair value, a notably low level. The company has continued its pattern of regular monthly dividend increases and recurring supplemental dividends, most recently adding a $0.30 per share supplemental payout. Recent market activity has seen the stock recover from a softer stretch earlier in the year, aided by solid second-quarter results. MAIN typically trades at a premium to NAV, supported by its dividend history and conservative leverage profile.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron maintains a large roster of AI trading bots that monitor and trade thousands of different tickers across many strategies. Because not every bot fits every market regime, Tickeron curates only the strongest and most relevant performers into its Trending AI Robots section. These bots vary widely in trading style, timeframe, strategy, risk profile, and the set of tickers they trade, giving users access to a broad spectrum of automated approaches. The curated list is designed to highlight strategies best suited to current market conditions, with each bot accompanied by performance statistics and trade histories. For investors interested in how quantitative, rules-based systems are currently positioning in names such as ARCC and MAIN, exploring the Trending AI Robots page offers a practical starting point.
Head-to-Head Comparison
Scale is the most immediate contrast. ARCC operates a multi-billion-dollar, broadly diversified portfolio dominated by senior secured, floating-rate loans, giving it exposure to a wide range of industries but also tying results to larger middle-market credit cycles. MAIN pursues a smaller, more selective lower middle market strategy with an internal management structure that keeps operating costs low.
Growth drivers also differ. ARCC is pursuing scale through the MidCap Financial merger and a sizable investment backlog, while MAIN emphasizes organic portfolio growth and realized equity gains, such as its recent Centre Technologies exit. On risk, ARCC's rising non-accruals and thin dividend coverage represent near-term concerns, whereas MAIN's conservative leverage and low non-accrual rate support its payout, even as its premium valuation leaves less margin for error. Sentiment has favored MAIN's relative stability recently, while ARCC trades at a discount that reflects higher yield alongside greater credit uncertainty.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trends, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward MAIN in the current environment, reflecting its more consistent trend characteristics, very low non-accrual rate, record NAV, and reliable dividend coverage supported by supplemental payouts. ARCC offers a higher yield and a valuation discount, but its softer credit metrics and dividend coverage gap introduce greater near-term uncertainty that a momentum- and stability-weighted model may view cautiously. Still, ARCC's scale, floating-rate exposure, and the MidCap Financial merger present potential catalysts that could shift relative positioning. The outcome remains probabilistic rather than definitive, and either name could outperform depending on how credit conditions and rate expectations evolve.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ARCC is a Hold and MAIN is a Buy.
ARCC in -0.70% downward trend, declining for three consecutive days on October 27, 2026
Moving lower for three straight days is viewed as a bearish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future declines. Considering data from situations where ARCC declined for three days, in 98 of 243 cases, the price declined further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 40%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.
The 10-day moving average for ARCC crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 02, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 5 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 36%.
ARCC broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 29, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for ARCC entered a downward trend on October 16, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where ARCC's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 16 of 20 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 80%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 29, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on ARCC as a result. In 43 of 89 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 48%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ARCC just turned positive on October 22, 2026. Looking at past instances where ARCC's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 25 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 53%.
ARCC moved above its 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +3.30% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ARCC advanced for three days, in 133 of 344 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 39%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 11 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 12 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 28 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 81, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 51 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ARCC’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 65 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 86 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.988) is normal, around the industry mean (2.431). P/E Ratio (14.261) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-4.007). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (1.319). Dividend Yield (0.100) settles around the average of (0.271) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (11.792) is also within normal values, averaging (15.798).
MAIN's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for MAIN turned positive on October 22, 2026. Looking at past instances where MAIN's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 27 of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 27, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on MAIN as a result. In 40 of 70 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
Following a +3.44% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MAIN advanced for three days, in 207 of 361 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
MAIN moved below its 50-day moving average on October 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MAIN declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 45%.
MAIN broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 28, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for MAIN entered a downward trend on October 28, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 17 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 21 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 81, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 25 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 50 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. MAIN’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 94 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.632) is normal, around the industry mean (2.431). P/E Ratio (11.096) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-4.007). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.760) is also within normal values, averaging (1.319). Dividend Yield (0.019) settles around the average of (0.271) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (9.141) is also within normal values, averaging (15.798).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
ARCC | MAIN | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 67 | 12 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 86 Overvalued | 94 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 28 | 21 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 11 | 17 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 51 | 50 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 12 | 25 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 65 | 90 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
ARCC's Valuation (86) in the null industry is in the same range as MAIN (94). This means that ARCC’s stock grew similarly to MAIN’s over the last 12 months.
MAIN's Profit vs Risk Rating (21) in the null industry is in the same range as ARCC (28). This means that MAIN’s stock grew similarly to ARCC’s over the last 12 months.
ARCC's SMR Rating (11) in the null industry is in the same range as MAIN (17). This means that ARCC’s stock grew similarly to MAIN’s over the last 12 months.
MAIN's Price Growth Rating (50) in the null industry is in the same range as ARCC (51). This means that MAIN’s stock grew similarly to ARCC’s over the last 12 months.
ARCC's P/E Growth Rating (12) in the null industry is in the same range as MAIN (25). This means that ARCC’s stock grew similarly to MAIN’s over the last 12 months.
| ARCC | MAIN | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 80% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 32% | 1 day ago 33% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 48% | 1 day ago 57% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 53% | 1 day ago 61% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 41% | 1 day ago 60% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 39% | 1 day ago 60% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 39% | 2 days ago 57% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 40% | 5 days ago 45% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 24% | 1 day ago 32% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 37% | 1 day ago 55% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ARCC’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green while MAIN’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- ARCC’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- MAIN’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ARCC’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MAIN’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ARCC’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- MAIN’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
ARCC (@Investment Managers) experienced а +2.52% price change this week, while MAIN (@Investment Managers) price change was +3.27% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Investment Managers industry was +0.34%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -6.05%, and the average quarterly price growth was -3.42%.
Reported Earning Dates
ARCC is expected to report earnings on Feb 10, 2027.
MAIN is expected to report earnings on Nov 05, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Investment Managers (+0.34% weekly)Investment Managers manage financial assets and other investments of clients. Management includes designing a short- or long-term strategy for buying/holding and selling of portfolio holdings. It can also include tax services and other aspects of financial planning as well. While it is perceived that the industry is faced with growing competition from robo-advisors/digital platforms and passive/ index-tracking funds, many investors still find value in actively managed in-person services that investment management companies often emphasize on. At the same time, many wealth managers are also incorporating digital initiatives/low cost options in addition to their in-person customized services. Their main sources of revenues are fees as a percentage of assets under management, in addition to a certain portion of clients’ gains from asset appreciation. BlackRock, Inc., Blackstone Group Inc and Brookfield Asset Management are some of the major investment management companies.
Advertisement
ARCC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ARCC has been closely correlated with OBDC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 80% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ARCC jumps, then OBDC could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ARCC | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARCC | 100% | -0.05% | ||
| OBDC - ARCC | 80% Closely correlated | -1.05% | ||
| GBDC - ARCC | 78% Closely correlated | -0.47% | ||
| BXSL - ARCC | 76% Closely correlated | -0.98% | ||
| CSWC - ARCC | 72% Closely correlated | -1.03% | ||
| MSDL - ARCC | 72% Closely correlated | -0.64% | ||
More | ||||
| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| EMDV | 46.54 | 0.31 | +0.67% |
| ProShares MSCI Emerging Markets Dividend Growers ETF (EMDV) | |||
| CFA | 101.00 | -0.55 | -0.54% |
| VictoryShares US 500 Volatility Wtd ETF (CFA) | |||
| AOR | 68.15 | -0.63 | -0.92% |
| iShares Core 60/40 Balanced Allocation ETF (AOR) | |||
| SMOX | 28.89 | -0.54 | -1.82% |
| Horizon Small/Mid Cap Core Equity ETF (SMOX) | |||
| AVGG | 18.39 | -2.28 | -11.03% |
| Leverage Shares 2X Long AVGO Daily ETF (AVGG) | |||