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ARCC vs MAIN
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC) vs. Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both ARCC and MAIN are prominent business development companies (BDCs) specializing in debt and equity financing for middle-market firms.
- ARCC boasts a higher dividend yield of 10.28% compared to MAIN's 5.77%, appealing to income-focused investors.
- MAIN has outperformed with 8.37% year-to-date (YTD) returns versus ARCC's 5.19%.
- ARCC holds a larger market capitalization at $13.4 billion, dwarfing MAIN's $4.87 billion.
- Recent market activity shows MAIN announcing follow-on investments, while ARCC faces projected earnings declines.
- MAIN trades at a premium to net asset value (NAV), reflecting investor confidence in its internal management structure.
Introduction
ARCC and MAIN stand out as leading BDCs, offering investors exposure to private credit and middle-market lending amid elevated interest rates. This stock comparison analyzes their business models, recent performance, and market positioning to aid income seekers and value traders. With high dividend yields and resilience in volatile markets, these stocks attract those balancing yield with growth potential in the current economic landscape.
ARCC Overview and Recent Performance
Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC), the largest publicly traded BDC, is externally managed by Ares Management and provides financing to U.S. middle-market companies with EBITDA between $10 million and $250 million. In recent market activity, ARCC shares have traded around $18.67, down from 52-week highs near $23.42 amid broader private credit concerns. Sentiment has been pressured by upcoming Q1 2026 earnings on April 28, with analysts forecasting a 4% year-over-year EPS decline to reflect higher funding costs and non-accrual loans (loans not generating interest). Despite this, robust originations of $15.8 billion in 2025 and a stable 10.28% dividend yield have supported investor interest, though shares have fallen more steeply than the market recently.
MAIN Overview and Recent Performance
Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN), an internally managed BDC, targets lower middle-market companies, offering customized debt and equity solutions. Shares recently closed at $54.06, within a 52-week range of $50.77 to $67.77, with YTD gains of 8.37% outpacing the broader market. Recent developments include follow-on investments and a preliminary Q1 2026 distributable net investment income (NII) estimate of $0.98-$1.02 per share, alongside an expanded credit facility to $1.175 billion. These moves have bolstered sentiment, with consistent monthly dividends unchanged for 18 years driving appeal, even as shares face valuation scrutiny at a premium to NAV.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
ARCC and MAIN share BDC structures regulated under the Investment Company Act, but differ in scale and management: ARCC leverages external management for vast originations, while MAIN benefits from internal control, trading at an 87% NAV premium versus ARCC's modest 2%. Growth drivers include MAIN's focus on equity stakes for upside, contrasting ARCC's debt-heavy portfolio. Recent momentum favors MAIN with stronger YTD returns, though ARCC offers superior yield. Risk factors involve credit quality in a high-rate environment, with ARCC exposed to larger deals and MAIN to smaller, diversified ones. Market sentiment tilts toward MAIN for stability amid private credit jitters.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently leans toward MAIN with moderate confidence, citing superior recent momentum, consistent investment activity, and outperformance versus broader indices in recent weeks. While ARCC excels in yield and scale, MAIN's internal management and YTD edge position it better for near-term relative stability amid earnings anticipation.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ARCC is a Hold and MAIN is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ARCC’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green whileMAIN’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- ARCC’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- MAIN’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ARCC’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MAIN’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ARCC’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 3 bearish.
- MAIN’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
ARCC (@Investment Managers) experienced а -1.57% price change this week, while MAIN (@Investment Managers) price change was +0.04% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Investment Managers industry was -2.13%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -5.29%, and the average quarterly price growth was -10.06%.
Reported Earning Dates
ARCC is expected to report earnings on Jul 28, 2026.
MAIN is expected to report earnings on Jul 30, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Investment Managers (-2.13% weekly)Investment Managers manage financial assets and other investments of clients. Management includes designing a short- or long-term strategy for buying/holding and selling of portfolio holdings. It can also include tax services and other aspects of financial planning as well. While it is perceived that the industry is faced with growing competition from robo-advisors/digital platforms and passive/ index-tracking funds, many investors still find value in actively managed in-person services that investment management companies often emphasize on. At the same time, many wealth managers are also incorporating digital initiatives/low cost options in addition to their in-person customized services. Their main sources of revenues are fees as a percentage of assets under management, in addition to a certain portion of clients’ gains from asset appreciation. BlackRock, Inc., Blackstone Group Inc and Brookfield Asset Management are some of the major investment management companies.
| ARCC | MAIN | ARCC / MAIN | |
| Capitalization | 13.5B | 4.78B | 283% |
| EBITDA | N/A | N/A | - |
| Gain YTD | -4.685 | -12.085 | 39% |
| P/E Ratio | 11.52 | 10.81 | 106% |
| Revenue | 1.36B | 526M | 259% |
| Total Cash | N/A | N/A | - |
| Total Debt | 15.8B | 2.53B | 625% |
ARCC | MAIN | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 74 | 53 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 3 Undervalued | 10 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 27 | 27 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 21 | 36 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 57 | 71 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 45 | 41 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 49 | 46 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
ARCC's Valuation (3) in the null industry is in the same range as MAIN (10). This means that ARCC’s stock grew similarly to MAIN’s over the last 12 months.
ARCC's Profit vs Risk Rating (27) in the null industry is in the same range as MAIN (27). This means that ARCC’s stock grew similarly to MAIN’s over the last 12 months.
ARCC's SMR Rating (21) in the null industry is in the same range as MAIN (36). This means that ARCC’s stock grew similarly to MAIN’s over the last 12 months.
ARCC's Price Growth Rating (57) in the null industry is in the same range as MAIN (71). This means that ARCC’s stock grew similarly to MAIN’s over the last 12 months.
MAIN's P/E Growth Rating (41) in the null industry is in the same range as ARCC (45). This means that MAIN’s stock grew similarly to ARCC’s over the last 12 months.
| ARCC | MAIN | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 34% | 2 days ago 33% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 49% | 2 days ago 69% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 26% | 2 days ago 60% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 37% | 2 days ago 60% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 44% | 2 days ago 49% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 39% | N/A |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 41% | 2 days ago 45% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 70% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 33% | 2 days ago 42% |
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ARCC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ARCC has been closely correlated with OBDC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 80% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ARCC jumps, then OBDC could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ARCC | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARCC | 100% | -0.11% | ||
| OBDC - ARCC | 80% Closely correlated | -0.36% | ||
| GBDC - ARCC | 78% Closely correlated | N/A | ||
| BXSL - ARCC | 75% Closely correlated | -0.72% | ||
| CSWC - ARCC | 72% Closely correlated | +0.24% | ||
| TSLX - ARCC | 70% Closely correlated | -1.38% | ||
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MAIN and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MAIN has been closely correlated with ARCC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 69% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MAIN jumps, then ARCC could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To MAIN | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MAIN | 100% | -0.35% | ||
| ARCC - MAIN | 69% Closely correlated | -0.11% | ||
| CSWC - MAIN | 66% Closely correlated | +0.24% | ||
| HTGC - MAIN | 64% Loosely correlated | -0.33% | ||
| PFLT - MAIN | 63% Loosely correlated | -1.24% | ||
| BXSL - MAIN | 62% Loosely correlated | -0.72% | ||
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