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AU vs GFI
Which Stock Would AI Choose? AngloGold Ashanti (AU) vs. Gold Fields (GFI) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both AU and GFI are major gold producers benefiting from elevated gold prices, yet their recent trajectories have diverged.
- AU has delivered stronger trailing momentum but now trades at a richer valuation and faces rising unit-cost pressure.
- GFI reported an 81% jump in first-half profit and doubled its dividend, but its shares sold off after an unsolicited takeover approach for Northern Star was rejected.
- AU's portfolio is weighted toward Tier 1, longer-life assets; GFI leans on growth from its Chilean Salares Norte mine and the Windfall project in Canada.
- Investors must weigh AU's premium valuation against GFI's cheaper multiple and merger-related uncertainty.
Introduction
AngloGold Ashanti plc (AU) and Gold Fields Ltd. (GFI) are two of the world's largest gold producers, making them natural comparators for investors seeking exposure to the precious-metals sector. This stock comparison examines their relative performance, business models, and market positioning at a time when record gold prices have lifted earnings across the industry but also raised costs and valuations. The comparison is particularly relevant for traders tracking momentum shifts and for longer-term investors evaluating which miner offers the more attractive balance of growth, cost discipline, and shareholder returns.
AU Overview and Recent Performance
AngloGold Ashanti (AU) is a global gold miner with a portfolio of operations spanning Africa, the Americas, and Australia. Recent market activity has been strong but uneven: the stock climbed roughly 95% over the trailing year, outpacing its gold-mining peers, yet it has pulled back meaningfully from its 52-week high as sentiment cooled. In the first half of 2026, the company reported EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) of about $4.3 billion, up 82% year over year, driven largely by higher realized gold prices and lower legacy tailings costs.
Offsetting those gains, gold production dipped about 4% in the first half, reflecting the sale of the Serra Grande mine and a temporary suspension at Obuasi following a contractor fatality. Total cash costs rose to roughly $1,480 per ounce, pressured by inflation, royalties, and currency moves. Management has reinforced a second-half production recovery and a proposed $2 billion share repurchase program, but recent analyst actions, including a downgrade citing valuation, underscore that AU now trades at a premium relative to its net asset value.
GFI Overview and Recent Performance
Gold Fields (GFI) is a Johannesburg-headquartered gold producer with mines in Australia, Ghana, Peru, and South Africa, plus a growing footprint in Chile and Canada. Its first-half 2026 results were robust: profit attributable to owners rose 81% to about $1.85 billion, gold-equivalent production climbed 12% year over year, and the board more than doubled the interim dividend. A standout contribution from the Salares Norte mine in Chile supported a favorable full-year production outlook.
However, recent market activity has been dominated by merger headlines. Gold Fields made an unsolicited, roughly A$38.7 billion takeover proposal for Northern Star Resources, an Australian peer, which Northern Star's board unanimously rejected. The announcement triggered a sharp sell-off in GFI shares as investors weighed potential dilution and execution risk. The stock has also faced lingering uncertainty over the Tarkwa mining lease in Ghana and weaker productivity at South Deep, though its valuation remains considerably lower than many large-cap peers.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Although both companies mine gold, their market positioning differs in meaningful ways. AngloGold Ashanti emphasizes a concentrated portfolio of longer-life, mostly Tier 1 assets and has been actively buying back shares and returning cash, while Gold Fields has pursued an acquisition-led growth strategy, most recently through its bid for Northern Star. On growth drivers, AU is focused on organic brownfield expansion at mines such as Obuasi, Geita, and Sukari, whereas GFI leans on the ramp-up of Salares Norte and the Windfall project's path toward first gold.
Recent momentum favors AU on a trailing basis, but its premium valuation and rising costs create near-term vulnerability to any pullback in gold prices. GFI trades at a notably lower earnings multiple and a comparable dividend yield, yet carries merger-related uncertainty and jurisdictional risks tied to South Africa and Ghana. On sector exposure, both stocks are highly sensitive to gold prices, interest rates, and the U.S. dollar, meaning neither offers meaningful diversification from the broader precious-metals complex.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, stability, and catalysts, Tickeron's AI would likely favor AU at present. Its established uptrend, strong free-cash-flow generation, and shareholder-return program provide a more stable foundation than GFI's current merger-related volatility. That said, the AI's preference is probabilistic rather than definitive: AU's elevated valuation and cost pressures introduce downside risk, while GFI's cheaper multiple and potential for a revised or alternative transaction could re-rate the stock if conditions improve. The verdict reflects a tilt toward the steadier relative positioning rather than a categorical judgment.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AU is a Hold and GFI is a Hold.
AU in downward trend: 10-day moving average crossed below 50-day moving average on October 01, 2026
The 10-day moving average for AU crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 01, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 14 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 78%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 13, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on AU as a result. In 52 of 82 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 63%.
AU moved below its 50-day moving average on September 28, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AU declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 75%.
The Aroon Indicator for AU entered a downward trend on October 16, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where AU's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 12 of 17 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 51 of 60 cases where AU's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 85%.
Following a +4.48% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AU advanced for three days, in 258 of 314 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 82%.
AU may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 21 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 62, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 22 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 44 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. AU’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 63 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.241) is normal, around the industry mean (2.093). P/E Ratio (12.409) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-16.581). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.040) is also within normal values, averaging (2.614). Dividend Yield (0.031) settles around the average of (0.324) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.307) is also within normal values, averaging (7.321).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 84 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
Momentum Indicator for GFI turns positive, indicating new upward trend
GFI saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 15, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 88 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 71 of the 88 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 81%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where GFI's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 12 of 19 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for GFI just turned positive on October 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where GFI's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 35 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
Following a +5.77% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where GFI advanced for three days, in 261 of 326 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 80%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 41 of 54 cases where GFI's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 76%.
GFI moved below its 50-day moving average on September 28, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for GFI crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 30, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 11 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 61%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where GFI declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 76%.
GFI broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 16, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for GFI entered a downward trend on October 16, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 24 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 40 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.732) is normal, around the industry mean (2.093). P/E Ratio (7.658) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-16.581). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.030) is also within normal values, averaging (2.614). Dividend Yield (0.092) settles around the average of (0.324) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.312) is also within normal values, averaging (7.321).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 43 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 62, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. GFI’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 94 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
AU | GFI | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 90 | 84 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 63 Fair valued | 40 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 21 | 43 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 22 | 24 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 44 | 59 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 84 | 94 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
GFI's Valuation (40) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as AU (63). This means that GFI’s stock grew similarly to AU’s over the last 12 months.
AU's Profit vs Risk Rating (21) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as GFI (43). This means that AU’s stock grew similarly to GFI’s over the last 12 months.
AU's SMR Rating (22) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as GFI (24). This means that AU’s stock grew similarly to GFI’s over the last 12 months.
AU's Price Growth Rating (44) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as GFI (59). This means that AU’s stock grew similarly to GFI’s over the last 12 months.
AU's P/E Growth Rating (84) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as GFI (94). This means that AU’s stock grew similarly to GFI’s over the last 12 months.
| AU | GFI | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 71% | 4 days ago 63% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 85% | 4 days ago 76% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 63% | 4 days ago 81% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | N/A | 4 days ago 74% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 74% | 4 days ago 80% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 74% | 4 days ago 69% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 82% | 4 days ago 80% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 75% | 6 days ago 76% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 80% | 4 days ago 66% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 74% | 4 days ago 64% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AU’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while GFI’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- AU’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- GFI’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AU’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while GFI’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AU’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- GFI’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
AU (@Precious Metals) experienced а -1.42% price change this week, while GFI (@Precious Metals) price change was +2.12% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Precious Metals industry was -4.31%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -13.01%, and the average quarterly price growth was -11.84%.
Reported Earning Dates
AU is expected to report earnings on Nov 05, 2026.
GFI is expected to report earnings on Nov 05, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Precious Metals (-4.31% weekly)The Precious Metals industry is engaged in exploring/mining metals that are considered to be rare and/or have a high economic value. Popular precious metals include gold, platinum and silver - all three of which are largely used in jewelry, art and coinage alongwith having some industrial uses as well. Precious metals used in industrial processes include iridium, (used in specialty alloys), and palladium ( used in electronics and chemical applications). Historically, precious metals have traded at much higher prices than common industrial metals. Newmont Goldcorp Corp, Barrick Gold Corp and Freeport-McMoRan are few of the major precious metals producing companies in the U.S.
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AU and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AU has been closely correlated with GFI. These tickers have moved in lockstep 89% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if AU jumps, then GFI could also see price increases.
GFI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, GFI has been closely correlated with AU. These tickers have moved in lockstep 89% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if GFI jumps, then AU could also see price increases.