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AU vs GFI
Which Stock Would AI Choose? AngloGold Ashanti (AU) vs. Gold Fields (GFI) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both AU and GFI are major gold producers benefiting from elevated gold prices, yet their recent trajectories have diverged.
- AU has delivered stronger trailing momentum but now trades at a richer valuation and faces rising unit-cost pressure.
- GFI reported an 81% jump in first-half profit and doubled its dividend, but its shares sold off after an unsolicited takeover approach for Northern Star was rejected.
- AU's portfolio is weighted toward Tier 1, longer-life assets; GFI leans on growth from its Chilean Salares Norte mine and the Windfall project in Canada.
- Investors must weigh AU's premium valuation against GFI's cheaper multiple and merger-related uncertainty.
Introduction
AngloGold Ashanti plc (AU) and Gold Fields Ltd. (GFI) are two of the world's largest gold producers, making them natural comparators for investors seeking exposure to the precious-metals sector. This stock comparison examines their relative performance, business models, and market positioning at a time when record gold prices have lifted earnings across the industry but also raised costs and valuations. The comparison is particularly relevant for traders tracking momentum shifts and for longer-term investors evaluating which miner offers the more attractive balance of growth, cost discipline, and shareholder returns.
AU Overview and Recent Performance
AngloGold Ashanti (AU) is a global gold miner with a portfolio of operations spanning Africa, the Americas, and Australia. Recent market activity has been strong but uneven: the stock climbed roughly 95% over the trailing year, outpacing its gold-mining peers, yet it has pulled back meaningfully from its 52-week high as sentiment cooled. In the first half of 2026, the company reported EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) of about $4.3 billion, up 82% year over year, driven largely by higher realized gold prices and lower legacy tailings costs.
Offsetting those gains, gold production dipped about 4% in the first half, reflecting the sale of the Serra Grande mine and a temporary suspension at Obuasi following a contractor fatality. Total cash costs rose to roughly $1,480 per ounce, pressured by inflation, royalties, and currency moves. Management has reinforced a second-half production recovery and a proposed $2 billion share repurchase program, but recent analyst actions, including a downgrade citing valuation, underscore that AU now trades at a premium relative to its net asset value.
GFI Overview and Recent Performance
Gold Fields (GFI) is a Johannesburg-headquartered gold producer with mines in Australia, Ghana, Peru, and South Africa, plus a growing footprint in Chile and Canada. Its first-half 2026 results were robust: profit attributable to owners rose 81% to about $1.85 billion, gold-equivalent production climbed 12% year over year, and the board more than doubled the interim dividend. A standout contribution from the Salares Norte mine in Chile supported a favorable full-year production outlook.
However, recent market activity has been dominated by merger headlines. Gold Fields made an unsolicited, roughly A$38.7 billion takeover proposal for Northern Star Resources, an Australian peer, which Northern Star's board unanimously rejected. The announcement triggered a sharp sell-off in GFI shares as investors weighed potential dilution and execution risk. The stock has also faced lingering uncertainty over the Tarkwa mining lease in Ghana and weaker productivity at South Deep, though its valuation remains considerably lower than many large-cap peers.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Although both companies mine gold, their market positioning differs in meaningful ways. AngloGold Ashanti emphasizes a concentrated portfolio of longer-life, mostly Tier 1 assets and has been actively buying back shares and returning cash, while Gold Fields has pursued an acquisition-led growth strategy, most recently through its bid for Northern Star. On growth drivers, AU is focused on organic brownfield expansion at mines such as Obuasi, Geita, and Sukari, whereas GFI leans on the ramp-up of Salares Norte and the Windfall project's path toward first gold.
Recent momentum favors AU on a trailing basis, but its premium valuation and rising costs create near-term vulnerability to any pullback in gold prices. GFI trades at a notably lower earnings multiple and a comparable dividend yield, yet carries merger-related uncertainty and jurisdictional risks tied to South Africa and Ghana. On sector exposure, both stocks are highly sensitive to gold prices, interest rates, and the U.S. dollar, meaning neither offers meaningful diversification from the broader precious-metals complex.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, stability, and catalysts, Tickeron's AI would likely favor AU at present. Its established uptrend, strong free-cash-flow generation, and shareholder-return program provide a more stable foundation than GFI's current merger-related volatility. That said, the AI's preference is probabilistic rather than definitive: AU's elevated valuation and cost pressures introduce downside risk, while GFI's cheaper multiple and potential for a revised or alternative transaction could re-rate the stock if conditions improve. The verdict reflects a tilt toward the steadier relative positioning rather than a categorical judgment.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AU is a Buy and GFI is a Buy.
AU | GFI | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 77 | 65 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 6 Undervalued | 5 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 28 | 47 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 22 | 24 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 42 | 53 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 69 | 94 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
GFI's Valuation (5) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as AU (6). This means that GFI’s stock grew similarly to AU’s over the last 12 months.
AU's Profit vs Risk Rating (28) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as GFI (47). This means that AU’s stock grew similarly to GFI’s over the last 12 months.
AU's SMR Rating (22) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as GFI (24). This means that AU’s stock grew similarly to GFI’s over the last 12 months.
AU's Price Growth Rating (42) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as GFI (53). This means that AU’s stock grew similarly to GFI’s over the last 12 months.
AU's P/E Growth Rating (69) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as GFI (94). This means that AU’s stock grew similarly to GFI’s over the last 12 months.
| AU | GFI | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 89% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 83% | 2 days ago 83% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 65% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 71% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 75% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 69% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 12 days ago 83% | 27 days ago 81% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 74% | 6 days ago 75% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 90% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 64% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AU’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green while GFI’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- AU’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- GFI’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AU’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while GFI’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AU’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- GFI’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
AU (@Precious Metals) experienced а -8.99% price change this week, while GFI (@Precious Metals) price change was -16.22% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Precious Metals industry was -9.91%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -10.13%, and the average quarterly price growth was -3.15%.
Reported Earning Dates
AU is expected to report earnings on Nov 05, 2026.
GFI is expected to report earnings on Nov 05, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Precious Metals (-9.91% weekly)The Precious Metals industry is engaged in exploring/mining metals that are considered to be rare and/or have a high economic value. Popular precious metals include gold, platinum and silver - all three of which are largely used in jewelry, art and coinage alongwith having some industrial uses as well. Precious metals used in industrial processes include iridium, (used in specialty alloys), and palladium ( used in electronics and chemical applications). Historically, precious metals have traded at much higher prices than common industrial metals. Newmont Goldcorp Corp, Barrick Gold Corp and Freeport-McMoRan are few of the major precious metals producing companies in the U.S.
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