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BBD vs ITUB
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Banco Bradesco (BBD) vs. Itaú Unibanco (ITUB) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- ITUB delivers superior profitability, with return on equity (ROE) of roughly 24%, versus about 15% for BBD.
- BBD is earlier in its turnaround, posting faster earnings growth and stronger loan expansion, but from a lower base.
- ITUB holds better asset quality (a 1.9% non-performing loan ratio) and pays a higher dividend payout.
- Both are large Brazilian banks, so they share exposure to Brazil's interest rates, currency, and election-year politics.
- On a relative performance basis, BBD has re-rated sharply, while ITUB offers steadier, higher-quality earnings.
Introduction
Banco Bradesco (BBD) and Itaú Unibanco (ITUB) are two of Brazil's largest and most closely watched banking franchises, both traded on U.S. exchanges as American Depositary Receipts (ADRs, securities representing shares in a foreign company). A stock comparison between them captures two very different stages of a shared macro story: Bradesco is navigating a multi-year turnaround, while Itaú is defending an established profitability lead. Investors weighing Brazilian financial exposure, dividend income, or a value-versus-quality trade-off may find this relative performance assessment useful.
BBD Overview and Recent Performance
Banco Bradesco is one of Brazil's largest private-sector banks, operating across banking and a substantial insurance franchise. In recent weeks, its fourth-quarter results underscored an accelerating recovery. Recurring net income rose 20.6% year over year to R$6.5 billion, bringing full-year 2025 profit to R$24.7 billion, up 26.1%. Return on average equity (ROAE, a measure of profitability relative to shareholder capital) reached 15.2%, exceeding the bank's cost of capital for the first time in its current transformation plan.
Momentum has been driven by an 11% expansion in the loan portfolio, gains in the small-and-medium-enterprise segment, and a 16.1% rise in insurance results. The bank is also investing heavily in digital, with its BIA artificial-intelligence assistant handling roughly 90% of digital interactions. Even so, higher loan-loss provisions and 2026 guidance that landed below some analyst expectations tempered near-term sentiment, contributing to a muted market reaction despite the headline profit beat.
ITUB Overview and Recent Performance
Itaú Unibanco is Latin America's largest private-sector lender, with a diversified model spanning retail and wholesale banking, asset management, insurance, and payments. Recent results reaffirmed its quality positioning: recurring managerial profit rose 13.2% year over year to R$12.3 billion in the quarter, and full-year 2025 profit reached R$46.8 billion, up 13.1%. Consolidated ROE climbed to 24.4%, its highest level since 2015.
Itaú's recent performance reflects disciplined cost control — its efficiency ratio (operating expenses relative to revenue) improved to a record-low 38.9% — alongside stable asset quality, with a 90-day non-performing loan (NPL, loans past due) ratio of 1.9%. The bank distributed R$33.7 billion in dividends and interest on capital, implying a roughly 72% payout, and maintained a Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1, a core capital adequacy ratio) of 12.3%. Management, however, flagged a competitive environment and potential volatility tied to Brazil's election-year calendar.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two stocks is quality versus momentum. ITUB pairs a roughly 24% ROE with best-in-class efficiency and a lower NPL ratio, reflecting a mature, well-capitalized franchise. BBD, by contrast, is generating faster growth — roughly 26% annual profit growth and 11% loan expansion — but its ROAE near 15% and higher NPL ratio near 4.1% show it is still closing the gap to its larger peer.
Growth drivers also differ. Bradesco's case leans on self-improvement: digital transformation, insurance strength, and SME (small-and-medium-enterprise) market-share gains. Itaú's rests on scale and efficiency, including its wealth-management and payments ecosystem and a record-setting "Super App" migration. On risk, both carry Brazil macro exposure — interest-rate policy, the Brazilian real, and 2026 election uncertainty — but Itaú's stronger capital returns and lower credit risk have historically supported a premium market positioning, while Bradesco's lower base offers more potential upside if its turnaround continues.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely favor ITUB on a stability-and-consistency basis, given its superior and sustained profitability, record efficiency, healthier asset quality, and reliable shareholder distributions. BBD presents a stronger momentum and re-rating narrative, which could appeal to trend-following strategies. Ultimately, the more probable AI lean is toward Itaú for its steadier trend quality, while acknowledging that Bradesco's faster growth profile may generate more volatile, catalyst-driven opportunities under specific market conditions.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is BBD is a Hold and ITUB is a Buy.
Aroon Indicator for BBD shows an upward move is likely
BBD's Aroon Indicator triggered a bullish signal on October 07, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor detected that the AroonUp green line is above 70 while the AroonDown red line is below 30. When the up indicator moves above 70 and the down indicator remains below 30, it is a sign that the stock could be setting up for a bullish move. Traders may want to buy the stock or look to buy calls options. A.I.dvisor looked at 275 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator showed a similar pattern. In 209 of the 275 cases, the stock moved higher in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move higher at 76%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 2 days, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 2 days, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
Following a +23.64% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BBD advanced for three days, in 189 of 274 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
BBD may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 19, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on BBD as a result. In 59 of 84 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 70%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for BBD turned negative on October 19, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 42 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 30 of the 42 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 71%.
BBD moved below its 50-day moving average on October 26, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 50-day moving average for BBD moved below the 200-day moving average on October 28, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BBD declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 1 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 14 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: BBD's P/B Ratio (0.159) is slightly lower than the industry average of (1.268). P/E Ratio (1.247) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.299). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.623) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). BBD has a moderately high Dividend Yield (0.087) as compared to the industry average of (0.035). BBD's P/S Ratio (1.539) is slightly lower than the industry average of (3.738).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 75 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. BBD’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 86 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. BBD’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 56, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 96 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
ITUB sees its 50-day moving average cross bullishly above its 200-day moving average
The 50-day moving average for ITUB moved above the 200-day moving average on October 14, 2026. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 2 days, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 2 days, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
Following a +4.31% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ITUB advanced for three days, in 219 of 304 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
ITUB may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 213 of 292 cases where ITUB Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 73%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 19, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on ITUB as a result. In 46 of 74 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for ITUB turned negative on October 19, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 42 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 26 of the 42 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 62%.
ITUB moved below its 50-day moving average on October 26, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ITUB declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 2 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 21 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 56, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 22 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: ITUB's P/B Ratio (0.375) is slightly lower than the industry average of (1.268). P/E Ratio (1.745) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.299). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.274) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.002) settles around the average of (0.035) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.806) is also within normal values, averaging (3.738).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 56 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. ITUB’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 95 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
BBD | ITUB | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 66 | 78 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 14 Undervalued | 22 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 86 | 21 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 1 | 2 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 75 | 56 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 96 | 95 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
BBD's Valuation (14) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as ITUB (22). This means that BBD’s stock grew similarly to ITUB’s over the last 12 months.
ITUB's Profit vs Risk Rating (21) in the Major Banks industry is somewhat better than the same rating for BBD (86). This means that ITUB’s stock grew somewhat faster than BBD’s over the last 12 months.
BBD's SMR Rating (1) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as ITUB (2). This means that BBD’s stock grew similarly to ITUB’s over the last 12 months.
ITUB's Price Growth Rating (56) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as BBD (75). This means that ITUB’s stock grew similarly to BBD’s over the last 12 months.
ITUB's P/E Growth Rating (95) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as BBD (96). This means that ITUB’s stock grew similarly to BBD’s over the last 12 months.
| BBD | ITUB | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 75% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 75% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 62% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 62% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 60% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 60% | 2 days ago 54% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 24 days ago 69% | 21 days ago 72% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 59% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 71% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 73% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
BBD’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while ITUB’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- BBD’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- ITUB’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
BBD’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while ITUB’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- BBD’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- ITUB’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
BBD (@Regional Banks) experienced а -32.59% price change this week, while ITUB (@Regional Banks) price change was -23.71% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Regional Banks industry was -0.26%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +1.92%, and the average quarterly price growth was +8.49%.
Reported Earning Dates
BBD is expected to report earnings on Feb 10, 2027.
ITUB is expected to report earnings on Nov 03, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Regional Banks (-0.26% weekly)Regional banks have a smaller reach than major banks, and cater mostly to one region of a country, such as a state or within a group of states. They offer services often similar – albeit with some limitations/smaller scale – compared to major banks. Taking deposits, making loans, mortgages, leases, credit cards , fund management, insurance and investment banking. SunTrust Banks, State Street Corp., M&T Bank Corp. are some examples of U.S. regional banks.
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BBD and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, BBD has been closely correlated with BBDO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 84% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if BBD jumps, then BBDO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To BBD | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BBD | 100% | -6.19% | ||
| BBDO - BBD | 84% Closely correlated | -7.25% | ||
| BSBR - BBD | 72% Closely correlated | -6.20% | ||
| INTR - BBD | 70% Closely correlated | -7.22% | ||
| NU - BBD | 66% Closely correlated | -3.47% | ||
| ITUB - BBD | 65% Loosely correlated | -3.52% | ||
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ITUB and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ITUB has been loosely correlated with INTR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 64% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if ITUB jumps, then INTR could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ITUB | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ITUB | 100% | -3.52% | ||
| INTR - ITUB | 64% Loosely correlated | -7.22% | ||
| BBDO - ITUB | 58% Loosely correlated | -7.25% | ||
| LYG - ITUB | 47% Loosely correlated | +1.85% | ||
| SHG - ITUB | 44% Loosely correlated | +1.99% | ||
| AVAL - ITUB | 43% Loosely correlated | -1.07% | ||
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