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BBVA vs SAN
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA) vs. Banco Santander (SAN) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both BBVA and SAN are Spanish banking leaders, but they diverge sharply on geographic focus: BBVA leans toward Mexico and emerging markets, while Santander balances Europe with the U.S., U.K., and Latin America.
- BBVA has delivered record earnings, with first-half 2026 profit of roughly €6.05 billion (up 11%) and a new €2 billion share buyback program, supported by a return on tangible equity (ROTE) above 21%.
- SAN reported nine-month attributable profit of about €12.41 billion (up 20%), but its recent quarter was weighed down by Webster integration costs and a 15% decline in Brazil earnings.
- On valuation, BBVA trades at a higher price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple and offers a higher dividend yield than Santander, reflecting different growth and payout profiles.
- Both institutions maintain strong capital positions, with common equity tier 1 (CET1) ratios above 12%, comfortably exceeding regulatory requirements.
- For deeper context on each name, explore BBVA Major News and BBVA Today's Price Move, as well as SAN Major News and SAN Today's Price Move.
- To see how automated strategies are navigating this environment, explore the curated Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA) and Banco Santander (SAN) are the two largest banks in Spain and rank among the most prominent financial institutions in the euro zone. Despite sharing a home market, their business models diverge considerably: BBVA concentrates on Mexico, Turkey, and South America, while Santander operates a more balanced footprint spanning Europe and the Americas. This stock comparison is relevant for investors weighing emerging-market growth against diversified stability, as well as for traders tracking relative performance and market positioning across two highly liquid European banking names.
BBVA Overview and Recent Performance
Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria is Spain's second-largest lender and derives a large share of its profit from Mexico, its single most important market. In recent weeks, BBVA has reported record results, with first-half 2026 attributable profit reaching about €6.05 billion, an 11% year-over-year increase. Net interest income (NII, the spread a bank earns between lending and funding costs) grew roughly 20%, while net fees advanced at a double-digit pace.
These results were accompanied by a new €2 billion share buyback program and an upgraded outlook for the year, reinforcing a shareholder-friendly capital return story. BBVA's ROTE (return on tangible equity) has hovered above 21%, and its CET1 (common equity tier 1) ratio, a key measure of capital strength, stood around 12.8% to 12.9%. Loan growth in both Spain and Mexico has supported revenue, and the bank has been vocal about its artificial-intelligence transformation agenda. Investor sentiment has been broadly positive, though the shares remain sensitive to emerging-market and geopolitical risk.
SAN Overview and Recent Performance
Banco Santander is Spain's largest bank and the euro zone's largest lender by market value, with a presence across roughly ten core markets in Europe and the Americas. In its most recent quarterly report, SAN posted attributable profit of about €3.43 billion, down 2% year over year, as charges tied to the integration of U.S. lender Webster and other items weighed on results. On an underlying basis, profit rose 19%, and nine-month attributable profit climbed about 20% to €12.41 billion.
The bank's diversification has been both a strength and a source of volatility. Contributions from recently acquired TSB in the U.K. and Webster in the U.S. lifted results, while Brazil, Santander's second-largest market, saw earnings fall 15% on higher provisions and currency-related pressure. Santander's CET1 ratio was approximately 12.7%, and management reiterated its 2026 targets, including a profit above €14.1 billion. The shares have shown momentum over the trailing twelve months but pulled back recently after a mixed earnings update and weakness in Brazil.
Trending AI Robots
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two banks is geographic concentration versus diversification. BBVA generates a substantial portion of its earnings from Mexico and other emerging markets, giving it higher-growth revenue dynamics but also greater exposure to currency swings and political risk. SAN, by comparison, spreads its earnings more evenly across Spain, the U.S., the U.K., Brazil, and other markets, which can smooth results but also introduces integration costs tied to its recent acquisitions.
On momentum and profitability, BBVA has posted stronger near-term earnings growth and a higher ROTE, while Santander offers greater scale and a broader, more balanced revenue base. In terms of valuation, Santander trades at a lower P/E multiple than BBVA, partly reflecting investor concerns about Brazil and integration expenses, whereas BBVA commands a richer multiple supported by buybacks and emerging-market growth. Risk profiles also differ: BBVA's sensitivity to Mexico and Turkey contrasts with Santander's exposure to Brazilian rates and U.S. deal integration.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, earnings momentum, and capital return activity, Tickeron's AI would likely tilt toward BBVA in the current environment. The bank's record profitability, upgraded guidance, active buyback program, and stronger ROTE signal a more consistent near-term catalyst set. That said, the verdict is probabilistic rather than definitive: Santander's diversification and its larger, more balanced franchise could offer greater resilience if emerging-market conditions deteriorate or if Brazilian and integration headwinds fade. The relative positioning of the two stocks remains dynamic and should be monitored as catalysts evolve.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is BBVA is a Hold and SAN is a Hold.
BBVA in downward trend: 10-day moving average crossed below 50-day moving average on October 01, 2026
The 10-day moving average for BBVA crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 01, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 10 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 56%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
BBVA moved below its 50-day moving average on September 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BBVA declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 50%.
The Aroon Indicator for BBVA entered a downward trend on October 27, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where BBVA's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 13 of 13 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 41 of 56 cases where BBVA's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
Following a +2.14% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BBVA advanced for three days, in 252 of 346 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
BBVA may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 3 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 5 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 21, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 12 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. BBVA’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 77 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: BBVA's P/B Ratio (2.363) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.515). P/E Ratio (13.354) is within average values for comparable stocks, (11.735). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.229) is also within normal values, averaging (2.139). BBVA has a moderately high Dividend Yield (0.060) as compared to the industry average of (0.035). P/S Ratio (3.249) is also within normal values, averaging (3.867).
SAN in -4.11% downward trend, declining for three consecutive days on October 26, 2026
Moving lower for three straight days is viewed as a bearish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future declines. Considering data from situations where SAN declined for three days, in 115 of 219 cases, the price declined further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 53%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 16, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on SAN as a result. In 45 of 88 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 51%.
SAN moved below its 50-day moving average on September 28, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for SAN crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 29, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 7 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 47%.
The Aroon Indicator for SAN entered a downward trend on October 27, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 7 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +2.07% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SAN advanced for three days, in 230 of 314 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
SAN may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 3 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 5 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 21, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 26 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 46 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.653) is normal, around the industry mean (1.515). P/E Ratio (11.820) is within average values for comparable stocks, (11.735). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.932) is also within normal values, averaging (2.139). Dividend Yield (0.041) settles around the average of (0.035) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.966) is also within normal values, averaging (3.867).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. SAN’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
BBVA | SAN | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 64 | 80 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 77 Overvalued | 46 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 5 | 5 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 3 | 3 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 48 | 59 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 12 | 26 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
SAN's Valuation (46) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as BBVA (77). This means that SAN’s stock grew similarly to BBVA’s over the last 12 months.
SAN's Profit vs Risk Rating (5) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as BBVA (5). This means that SAN’s stock grew similarly to BBVA’s over the last 12 months.
SAN's SMR Rating (3) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as BBVA (3). This means that SAN’s stock grew similarly to BBVA’s over the last 12 months.
BBVA's Price Growth Rating (48) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as SAN (59). This means that BBVA’s stock grew similarly to SAN’s over the last 12 months.
BBVA's P/E Growth Rating (12) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as SAN (26). This means that BBVA’s stock grew similarly to SAN’s over the last 12 months.
| BBVA | SAN | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 79% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 66% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 51% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 49% | 2 days ago 50% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 52% | 2 days ago 51% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 73% | 8 days ago 73% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 50% | 3 days ago 53% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 88% | 2 days ago 82% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 51% | 2 days ago 39% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
BBVA’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green while SAN’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- BBVA’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- SAN’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
BBVA’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while SAN’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- BBVA’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- SAN’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
BBVA (@Major Banks) experienced а -0.98% price change this week, while SAN (@Major Banks) price change was -5.03% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Major Banks industry was -0.82%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -3.59%, and the average quarterly price growth was +9.09%.
Reported Earning Dates
BBVA is expected to report earnings on Oct 28, 2026.
SAN is expected to report earnings on Oct 28, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Major Banks (-0.82% weekly)Major banks are among the biggest companies in the world, often times with global reach and market capitalizations in the multi-billions. Large banks often have multiple arms spanning different disciplines, from deposits, to investment banking, to wealth management and insurance. The biggest banks often have key competitive advantages over smaller players in the industry in terms of brand recognition, cost of capital, and efficiency. Think J.P. Morgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup.
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BBVA and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, BBVA has been closely correlated with SAN. These tickers have moved in lockstep 82% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if BBVA jumps, then SAN could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To BBVA | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BBVA | 100% | -0.39% | ||
| SAN - BBVA | 82% Closely correlated | +0.81% | ||
| ING - BBVA | 77% Closely correlated | +0.74% | ||
| BCS - BBVA | 76% Closely correlated | +0.85% | ||
| HSBC - BBVA | 73% Closely correlated | -5.70% | ||
| UBS - BBVA | 61% Loosely correlated | +0.71% | ||
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SAN and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SAN has been closely correlated with BBVA. These tickers have moved in lockstep 77% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if SAN jumps, then BBVA could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To SAN | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAN | 100% | +0.81% | ||
| BBVA - SAN | 77% Closely correlated | -0.39% | ||
| HSBC - SAN | 76% Closely correlated | -5.70% | ||
| ING - SAN | 76% Closely correlated | +0.74% | ||
| BCS - SAN | 72% Closely correlated | +0.85% | ||
| UBS - SAN | 61% Loosely correlated | +0.71% | ||
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