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BBVA vs HSBC
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA) vs. HSBC Holdings (HSBC) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- BBVA and HSBC are both large, globally diversified banks, but they earn the bulk of their profits in very different regions: Spain and Mexico for BBVA, Hong Kong and the UK for HSBC.
- BBVA has delivered stronger recent relative performance, with its shares up roughly 45% over the past 12 months, supported by double-digit profit growth, a higher dividend, and a share buyback program.
- HSBC has more than doubled over a two-year period but has cooled recently as investors took profits ahead of its third-quarter results.
- Both banks are returning significant capital to shareholders, but BBVA currently shows higher profitability, with a return on tangible equity (ROTE) above 22%.
- Analyst sentiment is mixed on both names: BBVA carries a broadly "Moderate Buy" consensus, while HSBC holds a "Hold/Neutral" leaning rating after recent price-target reductions.
- You can explore BBVA Major News and BBVA Today's Price Move, as well as HSBC Major News and HSBC Today's Price Move, for more detailed, up-to-date coverage.
- For data-driven market insights, explore Trending AI Robots to see which strategies are currently favored by automated trading systems.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines two of the world's most prominent banking franchises: BBVA (Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria), a Spanish lender with deep roots in Latin America, and HSBC (HSBC Holdings), a UK-based global bank anchored in Asia. Both are large, liquid, dividend-paying institutions, which makes them relevant to income-focused investors and to traders watching global interest-rate and economic cycles. Because the two companies earn their profits in different geographies, their relative performance often diverges with regional macro trends, currency moves, and credit conditions. Understanding these contrasts can help investors evaluate market positioning and risk exposure across two distinct banking models.
BBVA Overview and Recent Performance
BBVA is the second-largest bank in the eurozone by market capitalization, with leading positions in Spain and Mexico alongside operations in Turkey and other Latin American markets. In recent weeks, the stock has been among the stronger performers in European banking, rising roughly 45% over the past 12 months. This momentum has been driven by solid fundamentals: first-half 2026 attributable profit reached about €6.05 billion, up 11.1% year over year, while ROTE (return on tangible equity, a measure of profitability relative to shareholder capital) stood at 22.2% and its CET1 capital ratio (a key solvency measure) was 12.90%.
Sentiment has also been supported by shareholder returns. The bank approved a record interim dividend of €0.37 per share, a 16% increase, and continued executing a €2 billion buyback program. Morningstar DBRS recently upgraded BBVA's long-term issuer rating, citing resilient earnings across interest-rate cycles. However, rising European bond yields weighed on the shares in recent sessions, and analysts note that exposure to Mexico, Turkey, and other emerging markets can introduce volatility in earnings and asset quality.
HSBC Overview and Recent Performance
HSBC is one of the world's largest banking groups, dual-listed in London and Hong Kong and deriving a large share of its profit from Asia, with Hong Kong and the UK as its two largest markets. The stock has been a strong performer over a multi-year horizon, more than doubling over roughly two years as management simplified the business, exited non-core markets, and redirected capital toward wealth management and growth areas in Asia and the Middle East. Second-quarter pre-tax profit was about US$10.3 billion, up 13% year over year.
Momentum has cooled in recent weeks, however. The shares fell about 3.7% in a single early-October session amid profit-taking and valuation concerns, and the stock has pulled back from recent peaks. Reports of planned job cuts in the bank's UK wealth division as it shifts toward digitally enabled, AI-assisted services drew investor attention to cost discipline and restructuring execution. UBS recently lowered its price target on HSBC while keeping a Neutral rating. With quarterly results due in late October, investors are focused on net interest income, credit quality, and any further buyback announcements.
Trending AI Robots
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between BBVA and HSBC lies in their geographic and strategic footprints. BBVA is a high-return, growth-oriented franchise concentrated in Spain and Mexico, where loan growth and strong capital generation support generous distributions. HSBC is a diversified global platform heavily weighted toward Hong Kong and Asian wealth management, with a structural focus on cost discipline and restructuring.
On profitability, BBVA currently leads with ROTE above 22%, while HSBC faces tighter net-interest-margin pressure and restructuring costs. On momentum, BBVA has shown steadier recent relative performance, whereas HSBC has consolidated after a prolonged rally. Risk factors also differ: BBVA carries emerging-market and eurozone rate sensitivity, while HSBC is exposed to Hong Kong property conditions, China's economy, and geopolitical and currency considerations.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward BBVA in the current environment. Its stronger recent trend consistency, higher ROTE, rising dividends, buyback activity, and a recent credit-rating upgrade point to steadier positive momentum and clearer near-term catalysts. HSBC remains a fundamentally solid, capital-generative franchise, but its recent consolidation, analyst target reductions, and restructuring-related uncertainty suggest more muted momentum in the near term. This assessment is probabilistic and based on relative positioning rather than a definitive prediction.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is BBVA is a Hold and HSBC is a Hold.
BBVA in downward trend: 10-day moving average crossed below 50-day moving average on October 01, 2026
The 10-day moving average for BBVA crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 01, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 10 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 56%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
BBVA moved below its 50-day moving average on September 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BBVA declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 50%.
The Aroon Indicator for BBVA entered a downward trend on October 27, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where BBVA's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 13 of 13 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 41 of 56 cases where BBVA's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
Following a +2.14% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BBVA advanced for three days, in 252 of 346 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
BBVA may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 3 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 5 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 21, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 12 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. BBVA’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 77 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: BBVA's P/B Ratio (2.363) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.515). P/E Ratio (13.354) is within average values for comparable stocks, (11.735). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.229) is also within normal values, averaging (2.139). BBVA has a moderately high Dividend Yield (0.060) as compared to the industry average of (0.035). P/S Ratio (3.249) is also within normal values, averaging (3.867).
HSBC in downward trend: price dove below 50-day moving average on September 22, 2026
HSBC moved below its 50-day moving average on September 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 20 of 37 similar past instances, the stock price decreased further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 54%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on HSBC as a result. In 36 of 85 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 42%.
The 10-day moving average for HSBC crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 22, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 5 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 33%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where HSBC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 47%.
The Aroon Indicator for HSBC entered a downward trend on October 27, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator entered the oversold zone -- be on the watch for HSBC's price rising or consolidating in the future. That's also the time to consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 3 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +0.70% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where HSBC advanced for three days, in 251 of 372 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
HSBC may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 3 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 7 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 21, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 44 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 56 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. HSBC’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 79 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.496) is normal, around the industry mean (1.515). P/E Ratio (12.200) is within average values for comparable stocks, (11.735). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.887) is also within normal values, averaging (2.139). Dividend Yield (0.023) settles around the average of (0.035) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.724) is also within normal values, averaging (3.867).
BBVA | HSBC | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 64 | 13 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 77 Overvalued | 79 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 5 | 7 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 3 | 3 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 48 | 56 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 12 | 44 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
BBVA's Valuation (77) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as HSBC (79). This means that BBVA’s stock grew similarly to HSBC’s over the last 12 months.
BBVA's Profit vs Risk Rating (5) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as HSBC (7). This means that BBVA’s stock grew similarly to HSBC’s over the last 12 months.
BBVA's SMR Rating (3) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as HSBC (3). This means that BBVA’s stock grew similarly to HSBC’s over the last 12 months.
BBVA's Price Growth Rating (48) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as HSBC (56). This means that BBVA’s stock grew similarly to HSBC’s over the last 12 months.
BBVA's P/E Growth Rating (12) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as HSBC (44). This means that BBVA’s stock grew similarly to HSBC’s over the last 12 months.
| BBVA | HSBC | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 86% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 69% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 42% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 49% | 2 days ago 45% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 52% | 2 days ago 42% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 73% | 13 days ago 67% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 50% | 6 days ago 47% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 88% | 2 days ago 68% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 51% | 2 days ago 39% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
BBVA’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green while HSBC’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- BBVA’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- HSBC’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
BBVA’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while HSBC’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- BBVA’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- HSBC’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
BBVA (@Major Banks) experienced а -0.98% price change this week, while HSBC (@Major Banks) price change was -7.26% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Major Banks industry was -0.82%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -3.59%, and the average quarterly price growth was +9.09%.
Reported Earning Dates
BBVA is expected to report earnings on Oct 28, 2026.
HSBC is expected to report earnings on Feb 23, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Major Banks (-0.82% weekly)Major banks are among the biggest companies in the world, often times with global reach and market capitalizations in the multi-billions. Large banks often have multiple arms spanning different disciplines, from deposits, to investment banking, to wealth management and insurance. The biggest banks often have key competitive advantages over smaller players in the industry in terms of brand recognition, cost of capital, and efficiency. Think J.P. Morgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup.
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BBVA and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, BBVA has been closely correlated with SAN. These tickers have moved in lockstep 82% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if BBVA jumps, then SAN could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To BBVA | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BBVA | 100% | -0.39% | ||
| SAN - BBVA | 82% Closely correlated | +0.81% | ||
| ING - BBVA | 77% Closely correlated | +0.74% | ||
| BCS - BBVA | 76% Closely correlated | +0.85% | ||
| HSBC - BBVA | 73% Closely correlated | -5.70% | ||
| UBS - BBVA | 61% Loosely correlated | +0.71% | ||
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