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BBVA vs NWG
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA) vs. NatWest Group (NWG) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA) and NatWest Group (NWG) are major European banks with strong recent earnings and active share repurchase programs.
- BBVA has delivered superior longer-term returns, with 1-year gains exceeding 70% compared to approximately 40% for NWG, supported by robust activity in Spain and Mexico.
- Both banks reported solid first-quarter 2026 results, with BBVA posting net attributable profit of €2.99 billion and NWG achieving £1.4 billion in attributable profit.
- Recent market activity shows BBVA trading near multi-year highs amid ongoing buybacks, while NWG faces analyst upgrades alongside sector-specific regulatory scrutiny.
- Sector exposure differs notably: BBVA benefits from diversified international operations, whereas NWG remains primarily UK-focused with domestic economic sensitivities.
- Relative performance in recent weeks reflects broader banking sector resilience, with both stocks exhibiting momentum supported by capital return initiatives.
Introduction
This comparison examines Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA) and NatWest Group (NWG), two prominent European financial institutions, to highlight their relative positioning in the current market environment. Investors and traders evaluating bank stocks often focus on earnings momentum, capital allocation strategies, and geographic diversification when assessing opportunities in the sector. The analysis draws on verifiable developments from recent market activity to provide a factual basis for understanding performance contrasts and shared characteristics between the two tickers.
BBVA Overview and Recent Performance
Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA) operates as a multinational bank with significant presence in Spain, Mexico, and other markets, focusing on retail and wholesale banking services. In recent market activity, the stock has maintained upward momentum, building on a 1-year return exceeding 70% and year-to-date gains in the 8-14% range. First-quarter 2026 results showed net attributable profit of €2.99 billion and return on tangible equity of 21.7%, driven by 17% loan book growth and over 20% increase in net interest income. Ongoing share buybacks, including a final tranche of up to €1.46 billion, have supported shareholder returns. Sentiment has been influenced by strong business activity in core markets, though a July 2026 court order related to a historical spying case introduced a measure of legal overhang.
NWG Overview and Recent Performance
NatWest Group (NWG) provides banking and financial services primarily in the United Kingdom, with operations centered on retail, commercial, and institutional clients. Recent market activity reflects steady performance, with 1-year returns near 40% and year-to-date gains around 6%. First-quarter 2026 results delivered attributable profit of £1.4 billion and earnings per share of 17.9 pence, representing a 15.5% year-over-year increase. The bank has continued share repurchases, including transactions in early July 2026. Positive analyst sentiment has included several rating upgrades in recent weeks, though reports of prior funding exposure to a collapsed consumer lender added sector-specific attention. Broader UK economic factors and expectations for upcoming second-quarter results have shaped recent trading dynamics.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA) and NatWest Group (NWG) both emphasize capital returns through buybacks and have posted resilient first-quarter earnings, yet their business models diverge in geographic scope. BBVA’s international footprint, particularly in Mexico, provides exposure to higher-growth emerging markets, contrasting with NWG’s concentrated UK operations that tie performance more closely to domestic interest rates and economic indicators. Recent momentum favors BBVA on longer-term total returns, while NWG has attracted more frequent analyst upgrades in recent weeks. Risk factors include legal proceedings for BBVA and regulatory or lending-related headlines for NWG. Market sentiment remains constructive for both amid sector-wide profitability, though BBVA’s larger market capitalization and diversified revenue streams offer a different risk-return profile compared to NWG’s more focused positioning.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, earnings delivery, and capital return activity, Tickeron’s AI models currently assign a probabilistic preference toward NatWest Group (NWG) due to its recent sequence of analyst upgrades and alignment with domestic banking sector stability. Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA) demonstrates stronger historical returns and international diversification, supporting a competitive but slightly lower relative positioning in the current evaluation framework. This assessment reflects data-driven signals rather than forward projections.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is BBVA is a StrongBuy and NWG is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
BBVA’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green whileNWG’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- BBVA’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- NWG’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
BBVA’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while NWG’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- BBVA’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- NWG’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
BBVA (@Major Banks) experienced а +9.05% price change this week, while NWG (@Regional Banks) price change was +3.75% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Major Banks industry was +1.91%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +5.41%, and the average quarterly price growth was +19.44%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Regional Banks industry was +1.37%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +0.85%, and the average quarterly price growth was +13.88%.
Reported Earning Dates
BBVA is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
NWG is expected to report earnings on Jul 31, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Major Banks (+1.91% weekly)Major banks are among the biggest companies in the world, often times with global reach and market capitalizations in the multi-billions. Large banks often have multiple arms spanning different disciplines, from deposits, to investment banking, to wealth management and insurance. The biggest banks often have key competitive advantages over smaller players in the industry in terms of brand recognition, cost of capital, and efficiency. Think J.P. Morgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup.
@Regional Banks (+1.37% weekly)Regional banks have a smaller reach than major banks, and cater mostly to one region of a country, such as a state or within a group of states. They offer services often similar – albeit with some limitations/smaller scale – compared to major banks. Taking deposits, making loans, mortgages, leases, credit cards , fund management, insurance and investment banking. SunTrust Banks, State Street Corp., M&T Bank Corp. are some examples of U.S. regional banks.
| BBVA | NWG | BBVA / NWG | |
| Capitalization | 152B | 70.3B | 216% |
| EBITDA | N/A | N/A | - |
| Gain YTD | 22.102 | 10.434 | 212% |
| P/E Ratio | 12.83 | 9.99 | 128% |
| Revenue | 40.7B | 17B | 239% |
| Total Cash | N/A | N/A | - |
| Total Debt | 87.6B | 6.64B | 1,319% |
BBVA | NWG | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 88 | 27 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 41 Fair valued | 22 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 4 | 8 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 4 | 7 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 41 | 47 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 13 | 37 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
NWG's Valuation (22) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as BBVA (41). This means that NWG’s stock grew similarly to BBVA’s over the last 12 months.
BBVA's Profit vs Risk Rating (4) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as NWG (8). This means that BBVA’s stock grew similarly to NWG’s over the last 12 months.
BBVA's SMR Rating (4) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as NWG (7). This means that BBVA’s stock grew similarly to NWG’s over the last 12 months.
BBVA's Price Growth Rating (41) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as NWG (47). This means that BBVA’s stock grew similarly to NWG’s over the last 12 months.
BBVA's P/E Growth Rating (13) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as NWG (37). This means that BBVA’s stock grew similarly to NWG’s over the last 12 months.
| BBVA | NWG | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 58% | 1 day ago 72% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 52% | 1 day ago 48% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 84% | 1 day ago 71% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 77% | 1 day ago 56% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 69% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 74% | 1 day ago 70% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 74% | 5 days ago 70% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 50% | 3 days ago 54% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 49% | N/A |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 67% |
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BBVA and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, BBVA has been closely correlated with SAN. These tickers have moved in lockstep 77% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if BBVA jumps, then SAN could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To BBVA | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BBVA | 100% | +7.56% | ||
| SAN - BBVA | 77% Closely correlated | +5.46% | ||
| ING - BBVA | 70% Closely correlated | +7.47% | ||
| BCS - BBVA | 67% Closely correlated | +6.33% | ||
| HSBC - BBVA | 63% Loosely correlated | +4.38% | ||
| NWG - BBVA | 58% Loosely correlated | +5.40% | ||
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