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BBVA vs NWG
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA) vs. NatWest Group (NWG) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- BBVA delivers a structurally higher return profile, with a return on tangible equity (RoTE) above 19%, but carries greater exposure to emerging-market credit risk in Mexico, Turkey, and South America.
- NWG has sharpened its growth story through the Evelyn Partners wealth-management acquisition, lifting fee income and diversifying away from pure interest-rate sensitivity.
- Both lenders are returning record capital to shareholders through dividends and buybacks, though BBVA's recent provision increases tempered investor enthusiasm.
- Analyst sentiment is constructive on both names, with NWG carrying a "Strong Buy" consensus and BBVA a "Moderate Buy" consensus across major sell-side coverage.
- BBVA's relative performance has cooled in recent weeks after a roughly 45% twelve-month gain, while NWG has sustained steadier momentum through upgrades and guidance increases.
- For deeper coverage, explore BBVA Major News and BBVA Today's Price Move, along with NWG Major News and NWG Today's Price Move.
- To see how automated systems are positioning across these and other tickers, visit Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
European banks have been among the strongest performers in global equity markets over recent years, yet the drivers behind BBVA and NWG are sharply different. One is a diversified Iberian lender with deep Latin American roots; the other is a UK-focused franchise repositioning toward wealth management. This stock comparison is relevant for investors weighing geographic diversification against domestic stability, and for traders seeking to understand how relative performance and market positioning differ between two leading European financials. Both tickers reward attention from those evaluating yield, capital returns, and risk-adjusted momentum.
BBVA Overview and Recent Performance
Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA) is a Spain-headquartered global bank with major operations in Mexico, Turkey, and South America alongside its home market. Its business model combines strong retail and commercial lending with a leading digital-banking franchise across Latin America. Recent market activity has reflected record profitability colliding with emerging-market risk. The bank posted full-year profit near €10.5 billion and a RoTE (return on tangible equity, a key measure of profitability on shareholder capital) of about 19.3%, while guiding toward roughly 20% for 2026. However, loan-loss provisions rose sharply in recent quarters, concentrated in Mexico and Turkey, and that—combined with currency volatility—triggered a pullback in the shares. BBVA has nonetheless maintained aggressive shareholder distributions, including a record dividend and multibillion-euro buyback program, underscoring management's confidence in capital generation.
NWG Overview and Recent Performance
NatWest Group (NWG) is one of the UK's largest retail and commercial banks, with a heritage in UK domestic banking and a growing private-banking and wealth franchise. Its recent story has been defined by the £2.7 billion acquisition of wealth manager Evelyn Partners, completed in mid-2026, which more than doubled assets under management and is expected to lift group fee income by roughly 20%. In recent quarters, the bank raised its full-year income and RoTE guidance, reporting a first-half RoTE near 19.7% and targeting above 18% by 2028. Its CET1 ratio (Common Equity Tier 1, a measure of a bank's core capital strength) remained healthy even after the acquisition. NatWest has paired these results with a dividend increase and a newly announced buyback, and sell-side firms including Barclays have upgraded the stock in recent weeks on the back of higher rates and the Evelyn integration.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between BBVA and NWG is geographic and structural. BBVA offers higher headline profitability and a growth runway in emerging markets, but that same exposure introduces volatility in asset quality, inflation, and currency. NWG, by contrast, is a more domestically concentrated franchise whose earnings historically hinge on UK interest rates; its Evelyn deal is a deliberate effort to add recurring, capital-light fee income and reduce that sensitivity. On momentum, BBVA's longer-term relative performance has been stronger, but recent weeks have seen the stock give back ground as provision concerns surfaced. NWG's momentum has been steadier, supported by guidance upgrades and positive rating changes. From a valuation standpoint, both trade at what analysts describe as reasonable multiples for European banks, with BBVA carrying a modest dividend yield and NWG offering a higher perceived consensus upside relative to its ADR price. Risk factors differ too: BBVA investors weigh emerging-market credit and regulatory environments, while NWG investors monitor UK bank taxes, deposit-cost pressure, and the pace of wealth-integration benefits.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, stability of catalysts, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI framework would likely tilt toward NWG in the current environment. NatWest's narrative is supported by a clearer, near-term catalyst path—rising guidance, a completed wealth acquisition now contributing fee income, and sustained analyst upgrades—combined with steadier recent price momentum. BBVA's structural profitability remains impressive, but higher provision volatility and emerging-market sensitivity introduce a wider band of outcomes that automated trend models typically discount. This assessment is probabilistic rather than definitive, reflecting the balance of signals available at this time rather than a fixed recommendation.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is BBVA is a Hold and NWG is a Hold.
BBVA's Indicator enters downward trend
The Aroon Indicator for BBVA entered a downward trend on October 28, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 71 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In 37 of the 71 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at 52%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
BBVA moved below its 50-day moving average on September 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for BBVA crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 01, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 8 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 44%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BBVA declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 50%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where BBVA's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 12 of 13 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 41 of 56 cases where BBVA's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
Following a +2.14% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BBVA advanced for three days, in 252 of 346 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
BBVA may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 3 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 5 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 21, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 13 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 49 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. BBVA’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 77 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: BBVA's P/B Ratio (2.341) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.517). P/E Ratio (13.233) is within average values for comparable stocks, (11.751). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.229) is also within normal values, averaging (2.139). BBVA has a moderately high Dividend Yield (0.060) as compared to the industry average of (0.034). P/S Ratio (3.249) is also within normal values, averaging (3.867).
NWG's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for NWG turned positive on October 28, 2026. Looking at past instances where NWG's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 31 of 42 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 40 of 58 cases where NWG's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
Following a +1.64% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NWG advanced for three days, in 237 of 341 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
NWG may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on NWG as a result. In 38 of 81 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 47%.
NWG moved below its 50-day moving average on September 28, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for NWG crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 29, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 8 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 50%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NWG declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 55%.
The Aroon Indicator for NWG entered a downward trend on October 28, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 5 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 9 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 56, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 20 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 46 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.559) is normal, around the industry mean (1.268). P/E Ratio (11.456) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.299). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.468) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.074) settles around the average of (0.035) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.182) is also within normal values, averaging (3.738).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 56 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. NWG’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
BBVA | NWG | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 64 | 9 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 77 Overvalued | 46 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 5 | 9 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 3 | 5 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 49 | 56 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 13 | 20 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
NWG's Valuation (46) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as BBVA (77). This means that NWG’s stock grew similarly to BBVA’s over the last 12 months.
BBVA's Profit vs Risk Rating (5) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as NWG (9). This means that BBVA’s stock grew similarly to NWG’s over the last 12 months.
BBVA's SMR Rating (3) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as NWG (5). This means that BBVA’s stock grew similarly to NWG’s over the last 12 months.
BBVA's Price Growth Rating (49) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as NWG (56). This means that BBVA’s stock grew similarly to NWG’s over the last 12 months.
BBVA's P/E Growth Rating (13) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as NWG (20). This means that BBVA’s stock grew similarly to NWG’s over the last 12 months.
| BBVA | NWG | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 90% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 69% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 47% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 74% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 49% | 2 days ago 55% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 52% | 2 days ago 55% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 73% | 9 days ago 70% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 50% | 7 days ago 55% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 88% | 2 days ago 69% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 52% | 2 days ago 40% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
BBVA’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green while NWG’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- BBVA’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- NWG’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
BBVA’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while NWG’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- BBVA’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- NWG’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
BBVA (@Major Banks) experienced а -3.02% price change this week, while NWG (@Regional Banks) price change was -0.92% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Major Banks industry was +1.21%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -1.87%, and the average quarterly price growth was +10.02%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Regional Banks industry was -0.08%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +2.10%, and the average quarterly price growth was +8.73%.
Reported Earning Dates
BBVA is expected to report earnings on Feb 04, 2027.
NWG is expected to report earnings on Oct 30, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Major Banks (+1.21% weekly)Major banks are among the biggest companies in the world, often times with global reach and market capitalizations in the multi-billions. Large banks often have multiple arms spanning different disciplines, from deposits, to investment banking, to wealth management and insurance. The biggest banks often have key competitive advantages over smaller players in the industry in terms of brand recognition, cost of capital, and efficiency. Think J.P. Morgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup.
@Regional Banks (-0.08% weekly)Regional banks have a smaller reach than major banks, and cater mostly to one region of a country, such as a state or within a group of states. They offer services often similar – albeit with some limitations/smaller scale – compared to major banks. Taking deposits, making loans, mortgages, leases, credit cards , fund management, insurance and investment banking. SunTrust Banks, State Street Corp., M&T Bank Corp. are some examples of U.S. regional banks.
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BBVA and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, BBVA has been closely correlated with SAN. These tickers have moved in lockstep 82% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if BBVA jumps, then SAN could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To BBVA | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BBVA | 100% | -0.91% | ||
| SAN - BBVA | 82% Closely correlated | -6.26% | ||
| ING - BBVA | 77% Closely correlated | +0.98% | ||
| BCS - BBVA | 77% Closely correlated | +1.91% | ||
| HSBC - BBVA | 72% Closely correlated | +0.42% | ||
| UBS - BBVA | 61% Loosely correlated | -0.21% | ||
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NWG and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, NWG has been closely correlated with LYG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 86% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if NWG jumps, then LYG could also see price increases.