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BILI vs YMM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Bilibili (BILI) vs. Full Truck Alliance (YMM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both BILI and YMM are US-listed Chinese American Depositary Receipts (ADRs, certificates representing shares in foreign companies) that have pulled back toward their 52-week lows even as both companies remain profitable.
- BILI is a consumer entertainment and video platform, while YMM operates China's largest digital freight-matching marketplace, giving the two very different growth drivers and risk profiles.
- Bilibili is delivering faster top-line and advertising growth, whereas Full Truck Alliance offers steadier, high-margin transaction revenue and record fulfillment efficiency.
- Bilibili's recent stock weakness has been amplified by a share-offering filing, while Full Truck Alliance has contended with softer freight demand and fuel-price volatility.
- The two stocks suit different investor styles: BILI appeals to growth-oriented traders, while YMM leans toward those focused on profitability and cash generation.
Introduction
Bilibili (BILI) and Full Truck Alliance (YMM) are two prominent US-listed Chinese technology companies that rarely appear side by side, yet their current market positioning invites direct comparison. One monetizes a youthful content community; the other digitizes China's vast long-haul trucking industry. Both have transitioned to profitability in recent quarters, and both now trade near the bottom of their recent ranges. For traders and investors evaluating Chinese ADRs, this stock comparison highlights how two companies with improving fundamentals can still diverge sharply in momentum, sentiment, and risk. The analysis below examines each company's recent performance, the forces driving their relative performance, and how an AI-driven framework might weigh the trade-off between Bilibili's growth story and Full Truck Alliance's steadier earnings power.
BILI Overview and Recent Performance
Bilibili is a Shanghai-based online entertainment platform best known for its video-sharing and live-broadcasting ecosystem, historically rooted in anime, comics, and gaming content for a younger audience. The company has broadened into advertising, gaming, and value-added services, and its recent financial results show sustained commercial momentum. In its latest reported quarter, Bilibili's daily active users (DAUs, the number of unique users engaging daily) and monthly active users (MAUs) grew, while advertising revenue climbed at a double-digit pace and gross margin expanded for a sixteenth consecutive quarter. Net income also rose sharply year over year, reflecting greater operating leverage.
Despite these improvements, Bilibili's stock has traded near its 52-week low in recent weeks. Sentiment has been pressured by a shelf registration filing allowing potential issuance of additional ADRs, which can dilute existing shareholders, as well as a broader pullback in Chinese technology equities. Analysts have trimmed price targets while generally retaining constructive ratings. The result is a widening gap between Bilibili's improving operating fundamentals and its depressed market valuation, a divergence that has drawn attention from both value-minded and momentum-focused investors.
YMM Overview and Recent Performance
Full Truck Alliance is China's largest digital freight platform, connecting shippers with truckers across long-haul and regional routes through a marketplace model. The company generates revenue through freight listing, brokerage, transaction, and value-added services, and it has increasingly shifted toward a commission-based transaction model that is more capital-efficient. In its most recent quarter, total revenue grew modestly, while transaction service revenue expanded roughly a third and reached a record share of total revenue. Fulfilled orders rose by a double-digit percentage, the fulfillment rate hit a record level, and the median order-matching time shortened to about five minutes, underscoring improving platform efficiency.
Yet Full Truck Alliance's shares have also been weak, pressured by a challenging freight environment. Elevated diesel prices weighed on low-value, price-sensitive cargo demand earlier in the year, and management has cited near-term macroeconomic uncertainty and weather-related disruptions as risks. The company maintains a large cash balance and continues to return capital through dividends, but slower revenue growth and a cautious outlook have kept the stock near its 52-week low. Like Bilibili, YMM now trades at a valuation that appears disconnected from its underlying profitability.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies operate in entirely different industries, which shapes nearly every aspect of this stock comparison. Bilibili competes in China's consumer internet and advertising market, where growth is tied to user engagement, content quality, and advertising budgets. Full Truck Alliance competes in industrial logistics, where performance depends on freight volumes, fuel costs, and the pace of digital adoption in trucking. Consequently, Bilibili offers a faster-growing but more discretionary revenue base, while Full Truck Alliance provides steadier, higher-margin transaction revenue tied to the broader economy.
Momentum and risk also differ. Bilibili's recent decline has been amplified by a capital-raising filing, introducing dilution risk that weighs on sentiment even as its core business strengthens. Full Truck Alliance's weakness stems more from macro headwinds and freight-demand softness, with a cleaner balance sheet and active capital returns offering some support. Sector exposure differs as well: Bilibili carries the cyclicality of consumer advertising and gaming, while YMM is sensitive to industrial activity, diesel prices, and logistics demand. On market positioning, Bilibili trades on a growth multiple that has compressed sharply, while YMM trades on a more modest earnings multiple, reflecting its steadier but slower growth profile.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, stability, catalysts, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward Full Truck Alliance (YMM) in the current environment. YMM demonstrates steadier profitability, stronger cash generation, a cleaner capital structure, and a more consistent earnings trajectory, characteristics that tend to score favorably in AI-driven trend and stability models. Bilibili (BILI) offers the more compelling growth narrative and margin-expansion story, but its near-term price action has been clouded by dilution risk and a sharper pullback. In probabilistic terms, an AI framework may favor YMM for defensive consistency while acknowledging that BILI presents a higher-reward, higher-volatility alternative if its advertising momentum translates into renewed investor confidence.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is BILI is a Hold and YMM is a Buy.
Momentum Indicator for BILI turns negative, indicating new downward trend
BILI saw its Momentum Indicator move below the 0 level on October 14, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new downward move. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 90 similar instances where the indicator turned negative. In 77 of the 90 cases, the stock moved further down in the following days. The odds of a decline are at 86%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for BILI turned negative on October 16, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 47 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 37 of the 47 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 79%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BILI declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 80%.
The Aroon Indicator for BILI entered a downward trend on October 19, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where BILI's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 28 of 36 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 12 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +1.15% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BILI advanced for three days, in 209 of 260 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 80%.
BILI may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 48 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.349) is normal, around the industry mean (0.997). P/E Ratio (3.681) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-43.056). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.324) is also within normal values, averaging (17.274). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.994) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.453) is also within normal values, averaging (71.888).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 69 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly better than average sales and a considerably profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 83 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. BILI’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 97 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. BILI’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 94, placing this stock worse than average.
YMM in upward trend: price may ascend as a result of having broken its lower Bollinger Band on October 28, 2026
YMM may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 26 of 32 cases where YMM's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 47 of 68 cases where YMM's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
YMM moved above its 50-day moving average on October 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for YMM crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 19 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
Following a +7.79% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where YMM advanced for three days, in 189 of 249 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 109 of 155 cases where YMM Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 70%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 23, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on YMM as a result. In 71 of 85 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 84%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for YMM turned negative on October 23, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 49 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 42 of the 49 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 86%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where YMM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 83%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 24 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.224) is normal, around the industry mean (-1.884). P/E Ratio (2.180) is within average values for comparable stocks, (15.540). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (2.824). Dividend Yield (0.038) settles around the average of (0.072) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.423) is also within normal values, averaging (70.854).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 60 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. YMM’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 68 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly better than average sales and a considerably profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 97 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. YMM’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 94, placing this stock worse than average.
BILI | ||
|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 57 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 48 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 69 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 83 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 97 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
| BILI | YMM | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 78% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 69% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 86% | 2 days ago 84% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 79% | 2 days ago 86% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 73% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 84% | 2 days ago 73% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 28 days ago 80% | 2 days ago 76% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 80% | 12 days ago 83% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 80% | 2 days ago 81% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 81% | 2 days ago 70% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
BILI’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while YMM’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- BILI’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- YMM’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
BILI’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while YMM’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- BILI’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- YMM’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
BILI (@Internet Software/Services) experienced а +1.27% price change this week, while YMM (@Packaged Software) price change was +4.43% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Internet Software/Services industry was +0.31%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.56%, and the average quarterly price growth was -16.40%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Packaged Software industry was -1.53%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -3.93%, and the average quarterly price growth was -2.86%.
Reported Earning Dates
BILI is expected to report earnings on Nov 12, 2026.
YMM is expected to report earnings on Nov 19, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Internet Software/Services (+0.31% weekly)Companies in this industry typically license software on a subscription basis and it is centrally hosted. Such products usually go by the names web-based software, on-demand software and hosted software. Cloud computing has emerged as a major force in this space, making it possible to save files to a remote database (without requiring them to be saved on local storage device); as long as a device has access to the web, it can access the data and the software programs to run it. This has in many cases facilitated cost efficiency, speed and security of data for businesses and consumers. Alphabet Inc., Facebook, Inc. and Yahoo! Inc. are some well-known names in the internet software/services industry.
@Packaged Software (-1.53% weekly)Packaged software comprises multiple software programs bundled together and sold as a group. For example, Microsoft Office includes multiple applications such as Excel, Word, and PowerPoint. In some cases, buying a bundled product is cheaper than purchasing each item individually[s20] . Microsoft Corporation, Oracle Corp. and Adobe are some major American packaged software makers.
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BILI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, BILI has been loosely correlated with WB. These tickers have moved in lockstep 58% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if BILI jumps, then WB could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To BILI | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BILI | 100% | +6.55% | ||
| WB - BILI | 58% Loosely correlated | +2.25% | ||
| YMM - BILI | 57% Loosely correlated | +4.18% | ||
| BIDU - BILI | 50% Loosely correlated | +0.65% | ||
| NTES - BILI | 48% Loosely correlated | +1.63% | ||
| TUYA - BILI | 45% Loosely correlated | N/A | ||
More | ||||
YMM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, YMM has been loosely correlated with BILI. These tickers have moved in lockstep 57% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if YMM jumps, then BILI could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To YMM | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YMM | 100% | +4.18% | ||
| BILI - YMM | 57% Loosely correlated | +6.55% | ||
| TUYA - YMM | 46% Loosely correlated | N/A | ||
| NTES - YMM | 43% Loosely correlated | +1.63% | ||
| GRAB - YMM | 40% Loosely correlated | +5.54% | ||
| RIOT - YMM | 39% Loosely correlated | -7.57% | ||
More | ||||
| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| MIDU | 63.21 | 1.12 | +1.80% |
| Direxion Daily Mid Cap Bull 3X ETF (MIDU) | |||
| SIXP | 34.30 | -0.07 | -0.21% |
| AllianzIM U.S. Equity 6 Month Buffer10 Mar/Sep ETF (SIXP) | |||
| NANR | 85.86 | -0.97 | -1.12% |
| State Street SPDR S&P North American Natural Resources ETF (NANR) | |||
| SPMO | 132.45 | -3.82 | -2.80% |
| Invesco S&P 500 Momentum ETF (SPMO) | |||
| AMAU | 7.88 | -0.65 | -7.62% |
| Leverage Shares 2X Long AMAT Daily ETF (AMAU) | |||