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BJ vs COST
Which Stock Would AI Choose? BJ's Wholesale Club (BJ) vs. Costco Wholesale (COST) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- BJ (BJ) is a regional warehouse-club operator expanding aggressively into new markets such as Texas, while COST (COST) is the global category leader with a far larger footprint and scale.
- Costco trades at a much higher valuation multiple, while BJ carries a lower multiple but a more concentrated, execution-dependent growth story.
- Both names have benefited from defensive, membership-driven demand, but Costco has shown steadier comparable sales momentum in recent periods.
- BJ's expansion is accelerating club growth, whereas Costco's growth relies more on same-store execution, membership economics, and international reach.
- Analyst consensus is broadly constructive on both, though Costco's premium valuation leaves less room for multiple expansion.
Introduction
Warehouse clubs occupy a distinctive niche in consumer retail, combining membership income, high-volume merchandising, and a value-oriented appeal that tends to hold up through economic uncertainty. This stock comparison examines BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings and Costco Wholesale, two publicly traded membership-club operators with very different scale, geographic reach, and valuation profiles. Investors weighing defensive retail exposure, relative performance, and growth durability may find the contrast instructive. BJ represents a smaller, faster-expanding challenger concentrated in the eastern United States, while Costco is a global bellwether with a premium market positioning. Comparing the two clarifies the trade-offs between a high-growth regional operator and a mature, dominant industry leader.
BJ Overview and Recent Performance
BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings (BJ) runs a network of membership warehouse clubs concentrated on the U.S. East Coast, with a strategic push into Texas representing its most notable geographic expansion in recent years. The company's model leans on membership fees, groceries, fuel, and general merchandise, positioning it as a value alternative to larger club rivals.
Recent market activity has been constructive but uneven. BJ's shares have traded near the upper end of their 52-week range, aided by accelerating club openings and improving early results from new locations. Management has signaled plans for roughly 25 to 30 new clubs across fiscal 2027 and 2028, an uplift from the slower pace of prior years. However, the stock's relative performance has been choppier than the broader rally in defensive retail, reflecting investor caution around merchandise margins and the costs tied to expansion.
On the fundamentals side, recent quarters have delivered strong top-line growth alongside pressure on profitability, including elevated selling, general, and administrative expenses (SG&A, the overhead costs of running the business) and periodic declines in earnings per share (EPS, a company's profit divided by its outstanding shares). Tariff exposure and softness in general merchandise remain the key watch items shaping sentiment.
COST Overview and Recent Performance
Costco Wholesale (COST) is the world's largest membership warehouse-club operator, with a global footprint spanning the United States, Canada, Mexico, Europe, and Asia. Its scale, private-label Kirkland Signature brand, and high membership renewal rates give it durable pricing power and a loyal customer base.
Recent performance has been steady rather than spectacular. Costco has continued to post among the strongest same-store sales growth in large-cap retail, with comparable sales (sales at locations open for more than a year) holding in the mid-to-high single digits in percentage terms on an adjusted basis. Net sales growth has remained solid, and membership renewal rates have stayed historically strong in the U.S. and Canada. The company has also raised its dividend and maintained a disciplined store-opening plan for the coming fiscal year.
What tempers enthusiasm is valuation. Costco's shares trade at a premium price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio — a measure of how much investors pay for each dollar of earnings — well above the broader market. This reflects its quality and consistency but leaves less margin for error, particularly as paid-member growth and digital-sales momentum have moderated from their peaks.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies share a business model but diverge sharply on scale and strategy. Costco's roughly 939 warehouses and roughly $440 billion market capitalization dwarf BJ's regional network, giving Costco purchasing leverage, a global supply chain, and a far larger membership base. BJ, by contrast, is a growth story built on footprint expansion and market-share capture in newer geographies.
On recent momentum, Costco has delivered more consistent comparable-sales growth, while BJ's performance has been more volatile, with strong revenue offset by uneven profitability. In terms of risk, BJ carries higher execution and tariff-related margin risk, whereas Costco's principal risk is its valuation multiple rather than operational deterioration. Sector exposure is similar — both are consumer-staples-adjacent retailers — but Costco's international diversification and ancillary businesses (fuel, pharmacy, travel) provide more revenue streams. Market sentiment favors Costco's reliability but rewards BJ for its faster unit growth, creating a clear trade-off between stability and optionality.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely tilt toward Costco (COST) on the basis of trend consistency and stability. Costco's steadier comparable-sales trajectory, high renewal rates, and diversified earnings base present a more consistent pattern for trend-following models, even if its premium valuation limits upside. BJ (BJ) offers a stronger unit-growth catalyst, but its more uneven profitability and higher execution sensitivity make its trend less reliable in probabilistic terms. The assessment is conditional rather than definitive: a momentum-oriented model might favor BJ during periods of expansion-driven strength, while a stability-weighted model would favor Costco's more durable positioning.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is BJ is a StrongBuy and COST is a Buy.
BJ in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 06, 2026
BJ moved above its 50-day moving average on October 06, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 42 of 54 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 01, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on BJ as a result. In 59 of 91 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
The 10-day moving average for BJ crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 06, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
Following a +4.99% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BJ advanced for three days, in 175 of 307 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 158 of 224 cases where BJ Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 71%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BJ declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 49%.
BJ broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 27 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 29 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 57, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 35 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 40 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. BJ’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 90 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (6.362) is normal, around the industry mean (5.837). P/E Ratio (24.059) is within average values for comparable stocks, (24.624). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.251) is also within normal values, averaging (2.171). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.010) among similar stocks. BJ's P/S Ratio (0.530) is slightly lower than the industry average of (1.008).
COST in +4.62% Uptrend, advancing for three consecutive days on November 02, 2026
Moving higher for three straight days is viewed as a bullish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future growth. Considering data from situations where COST advanced for three days, in 212 of 348 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
COST moved above its 50-day moving average on October 06, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for COST crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 12, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 9 of 19 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 47%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 168 of 331 cases where COST Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 51%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where COST declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 40%.
COST broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 10 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 57, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 34 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 38 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. COST’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 44 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 100 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: COST's P/B Ratio (13.765) is slightly higher than the industry average of (5.837). COST has a moderately high P/E Ratio (52.263) as compared to the industry average of (24.624). COST's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (4.478) is slightly higher than the industry average of (2.171). Dividend Yield (0.006) settles around the average of (0.010) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.353) is also within normal values, averaging (1.008).
BJ | COST | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 76 | 43 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 90 Overvalued | 100 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 29 | 10 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 35 | 34 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 40 | 38 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 27 | 44 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
BJ's Valuation (90) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as COST (100). This means that BJ’s stock grew similarly to COST’s over the last 12 months.
COST's Profit vs Risk Rating (10) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as BJ (29). This means that COST’s stock grew similarly to BJ’s over the last 12 months.
COST's SMR Rating (34) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as BJ (35). This means that COST’s stock grew similarly to BJ’s over the last 12 months.
COST's Price Growth Rating (38) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as BJ (40). This means that COST’s stock grew similarly to BJ’s over the last 12 months.
BJ's P/E Growth Rating (27) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as COST (44). This means that BJ’s stock grew similarly to COST’s over the last 12 months.
| BJ | COST | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 36% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 42% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | N/A |
| MACD ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 61% | 2 days ago 62% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 58% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 61% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 49% | 7 days ago 40% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 43% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 51% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
BJ’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while COST’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- BJ’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- COST’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
BJ’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while COST’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- BJ’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- COST’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
BJ (@Discount Stores) experienced а +4.05% price change this week, while COST (@Discount Stores) price change was +3.67% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Discount Stores industry was +4.30%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +9.97%, and the average quarterly price growth was +18.44%.
Reported Earning Dates
BJ is expected to report earnings on Nov 20, 2026.
COST is expected to report earnings on Dec 10, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Discount Stores (+4.30% weekly)Companies in the discount stores industry specialize in offering substantial discounts on a vast array of retail products. Some companies in this industry also operate general merchandise warehouse clubs. Products sold at discount stores are typically similar to those of any department store, but the pricing of the goods is generally much lower (and hence the name “discount”). Think Dollar General Corporation, Dollar Tree, Inc. and Five Below, Inc. Many discount stores target low-income households and/or price-sensitive consumers as their potential market. Discount stores’ profitability could hinge on factors like competitive pricing, sufficient locations, healthy revenue per square foot, and effective advertisement. These store operators could have an edge over other retailers during financial crises or recessions, when many consumers could be looking for less expensive alternatives.
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BJ and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, BJ has been loosely correlated with COST. These tickers have moved in lockstep 54% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if BJ jumps, then COST could also see price increases.
COST and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, COST has been loosely correlated with WMT. These tickers have moved in lockstep 63% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if COST jumps, then WMT could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To COST | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COST | 100% | +2.79% | ||
| WMT - COST | 63% Loosely correlated | +3.38% | ||
| PSMT - COST | 27% Poorly correlated | +0.65% | ||
| DG - COST | 25% Poorly correlated | +2.63% | ||
| DLTR - COST | 20% Poorly correlated | +3.53% | ||
| OLLI - COST | 18% Poorly correlated | -1.46% | ||
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