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BJ vs COST
Which Stock Would AI Choose? BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings (BJ) vs. Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Scale contrast: COST operates roughly 939 warehouses globally, while BJ runs 267 clubs concentrated in the Eastern United States.
- Growth profile: BJ is in an expansion phase with a new Texas market and double-digit comparable sales, whereas Costco's growth is steadier and more mature.
- Valuation gap: Costco trades at a premium forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple, while BJ carries a lower valuation with a smaller market capitalization.
- Membership momentum: BJ is adding members rapidly off a smaller base, while Costco's membership growth has moderated in recent quarters.
- Margin trade-off: Both retailers are reinvesting tariff refunds into lower prices, pressuring near-term merchandise margins.
Introduction
BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. and Costco Wholesale Corporation are two membership-based warehouse retailers that share a business model but operate at very different scales. This stock comparison is relevant for investors weighing a faster-growing regional challenger against a global category leader. Momentum-oriented traders may find BJ's expansion story appealing, while investors focused on stability and global diversification often favor Costco. Understanding the relative performance and market positioning of each name helps clarify where risk and reward currently sit across the warehouse-club segment.
BJ Overview and Recent Performance
BJ (BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc.) is a membership warehouse club operator headquartered in Marlborough, Massachusetts, with 267 clubs and 206 gas stations across 22 states, primarily in the Eastern United States. In its most recent fiscal quarter, the company reported net sales growth of roughly 15.9% to about $6.09 billion, with total comparable club sales up 11.9%. Excluding gasoline, comparable sales rose 3.1%, supported by its 18th consecutive quarter of traffic growth and 15th consecutive quarter of market-share gains.
Membership has been a central driver. Membership fee income rose about 9.9%, and total membership reached a record 8.5 million. Digitally enabled comparable sales climbed about 30%. Management also raised its full-year adjusted earnings per share (EPS) outlook, reflecting improved profitability. Expansion into Texas has drawn investor attention, with early membership running ahead of plan. At the same time, price investments and a heavier owned-club footprint have pressured merchandise gross margin, a key factor shaping sentiment in recent weeks.
COST Overview and Recent Performance
COST (Costco Wholesale Corporation) is the world's largest membership warehouse club operator, based in Issaquah, Washington, with 939 warehouses across the United States and more than a dozen international markets. In its most recent quarter, net sales rose about 11.2% to $93.87 billion, while total comparable sales increased 9.4%. Adjusted comparable sales, excluding gasoline price changes and foreign exchange, grew 6.7%, a pace management has described as steady.
Costco ended its fiscal year with about 84.1 million paid members, up 3.8% year over year, with a 92.3% renewal rate in the United States and Canada. Membership fee income rose 7.3% in the quarter. Digitally enabled comparable sales grew roughly 19.5%. Earnings included a one-time benefit from tariff refunds, net of reinvestment into lower prices. While execution remains strong, slower membership growth and a premium valuation have left analyst sentiment somewhat divided, with some firms highlighting the stock's elevated multiple.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies diverge most clearly on scale and growth stage. Costco's roughly $400 billion market capitalization and global footprint give it a stability and diversification that BJ, a regional operator with a smaller base, cannot yet match. Conversely, BJ's recent double-digit comparable sales and new-market expansion offer a faster growth trajectory that Costco's mature model is less likely to replicate.
Valuation is another key trade-off. Costco's forward P/E multiple sits well above BJ's, meaning the market is pricing in continued premium execution. BJ trades at a discount, reflecting both its smaller scale and its thinner margins as it invests in pricing and club openings. On risk, BJ carries greater concentration exposure to a single region and a more leveraged expansion plan, while Costco faces the challenge of sustaining growth against a very large base. Both are reinvesting tariff-related refunds into member value, a shared dynamic that pressures near-term margins but supports customer loyalty and traffic.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, growth momentum, catalysts, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely express a measured preference for BJ in the near term, given its accelerating comparable sales, record membership, raised earnings guidance, and a clearer expansion catalyst in the Texas market. At the same time, COST would likely be favored on stability, global diversification, and balance-sheet strength. The verdict hinges on the investor's time horizon and risk tolerance rather than on a single metric, and the AI's weighting could shift as earnings and momentum data evolve.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is BJ is a Buy and COST is a StrongBuy.
BJ | COST | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 92 Overvalued | 99 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 43 | 16 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 35 | 34 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 42 | 47 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 39 | 53 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 75 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
BJ's Valuation (92) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as COST (99). This means that BJ’s stock grew similarly to COST’s over the last 12 months.
COST's Profit vs Risk Rating (16) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as BJ (43). This means that COST’s stock grew similarly to BJ’s over the last 12 months.
COST's SMR Rating (34) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as BJ (35). This means that COST’s stock grew similarly to BJ’s over the last 12 months.
BJ's Price Growth Rating (42) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as COST (47). This means that BJ’s stock grew similarly to COST’s over the last 12 months.
BJ's P/E Growth Rating (39) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as COST (53). This means that BJ’s stock grew similarly to COST’s over the last 12 months.
| BJ | COST | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 4 days ago 59% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 68% | 4 days ago 42% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 65% | 4 days ago 67% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 63% | 4 days ago 67% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 61% | 4 days ago 63% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 63% | 4 days ago 58% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 58% | 5 days ago 61% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 13 days ago 49% | 27 days ago 38% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 69% | 4 days ago 49% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 71% | 4 days ago 38% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
BJ’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while COST’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- BJ’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- COST’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
BJ’s TA Score shows that 7 TA indicator(s) are bullish while COST’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- BJ’s TA Score: 7 bullish, 3 bearish.
- COST’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
BJ (@Discount Stores) experienced а +3.81% price change this week, while COST (@Discount Stores) price change was +2.85% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Discount Stores industry was +3.26%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +5.24%, and the average quarterly price growth was +11.69%.
Reported Earning Dates
BJ is expected to report earnings on Nov 12, 2026.
COST is expected to report earnings on Dec 10, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Discount Stores (+3.26% weekly)Companies in the discount stores industry specialize in offering substantial discounts on a vast array of retail products. Some companies in this industry also operate general merchandise warehouse clubs. Products sold at discount stores are typically similar to those of any department store, but the pricing of the goods is generally much lower (and hence the name “discount”). Think Dollar General Corporation, Dollar Tree, Inc. and Five Below, Inc. Many discount stores target low-income households and/or price-sensitive consumers as their potential market. Discount stores’ profitability could hinge on factors like competitive pricing, sufficient locations, healthy revenue per square foot, and effective advertisement. These store operators could have an edge over other retailers during financial crises or recessions, when many consumers could be looking for less expensive alternatives.
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BJ and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, BJ has been loosely correlated with COST. These tickers have moved in lockstep 51% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if BJ jumps, then COST could also see price increases.