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BLMN vs SBUX
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Bloomin' Brands (BLMN) vs. Starbucks (SBUX) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- SBUX has shown strong year-to-date (YTD) gains of approximately 18%, contrasting with BLMN's significant declines amid ongoing sales pressures.
- Both operate in the restaurant sector, but SBUX benefits from global brand strength and loyalty program enhancements, while BLMN faces challenges from flat revenues and weaker comparable sales.
- Recent market activity highlights SBUX's upward momentum near its 52-week high, versus BLMN trading near multi-year lows.
- Analyst sentiment leans positive for SBUX with overweight ratings, while BLMN carries sell recommendations and lower price targets.
- Upcoming earnings for both could shift sentiment, with SBUX Q2 results imminent and BLMN Q1 call scheduled soon.
Introduction
This comparison pits BLMN, a casual dining operator, against SBUX, the global coffeehouse leader, both navigating consumer discretionary trends in the restaurant industry. Traders seeking relative performance insights and investors eyeing sector rotation opportunities will find value here. Amid shifting diner preferences and economic sensitivities, evaluating recent momentum, business models, and market positioning provides clarity on potential trade-offs in today's environment.
BLMN Overview and Recent Performance
Bloomin' Brands (BLMN) owns casual dining chains like Outback Steakhouse and Carrabba's Italian Grill, focusing primarily on U.S. operations with international exposure. In recent market activity, the stock has traded near its 52-week low around $6, down sharply from highs above $10, reflecting a roughly 24% decline over the past six months. Q4 2025 results showed flat revenues of $975 million, missing estimates slightly, though adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.25 beat expectations. Sentiment has been pressured by soft demand, analyst downgrades, and a sell rating with targets near $5, influencing downward price behavior despite some comparable sales improvements in prior quarters.
SBUX Overview and Recent Performance
Starbucks (SBUX) dominates the premium coffee segment with a vast global footprint of cafes emphasizing quick-service beverages and food. Recent weeks have seen shares around $98.67, up nearly 18% YTD and approaching the 52-week high of $104.82, supported by positive analyst updates. Key developments include a $100 million Nashville hub investment for U.S. growth, loyalty program tweaks attracting value-seekers, and an AI platform rollout. Q1 fiscal 2026 revenues grew modestly, though margins faced cost pressures; upcoming Q2 earnings are anticipated to reflect operational shifts amid competition. These catalysts have bolstered sentiment and relative outperformance versus broader market peers.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
BLMN and SBUX both serve restaurant consumers but diverge in models: BLMN's dine-in casual focus exposes it more to economic cycles and dine-out traffic, while SBUX's drive-thru and app-driven quick service offers resilience. Growth drivers contrast—SBUX leverages international expansion and digital loyalty versus BLMN's U.S.-centric comp recovery. Recent momentum favors SBUX with YTD gains and higher price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio around 82 reflecting premium valuation, against BLMN's depressed multiples amid revenue stagnation. Risk factors include competition and costs for both, but BLMN shows higher volatility near lows; sector exposure ties them to discretionary spending, with SBUX exhibiting stronger sentiment via upgrades.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors SBUX over BLMN, based on superior trend consistency, YTD stability, growth catalysts like tech integrations, and better relative market positioning. BLMN's downside risks from weak comps temper its appeal probabilistically, though earnings beats could alter dynamics.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is BLMN is a Buy and SBUX is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
BLMN’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileSBUX’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- BLMN’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- SBUX’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
BLMN’s TA Score shows that 7 TA indicator(s) are bullish while SBUX’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- BLMN’s TA Score: 7 bullish, 2 bearish.
- SBUX’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
BLMN (@Restaurants) experienced а +8.89% price change this week, while SBUX (@Restaurants) price change was -1.42% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Restaurants industry was -3.48%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +2.35%, and the average quarterly price growth was +1.71%.
Reported Earning Dates
BLMN is expected to report earnings on Jul 24, 2026.
SBUX is expected to report earnings on Aug 04, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Restaurants (-3.48% weekly)The industry includes companies that operate full-service restaurants, fast food restaurants, cafeterias and snack bars. McDonald`s Corporation, Starbucks Corporation, YUM! Brands, Inc. and Restaurant Brands International Inc. are some of the largest U.S. restaurant-owning companies in terms of market capitalization. While restaurant spending could be viewed as discretionary for consumers, some companies in the business have been able to weather economic cycles by establishing strong loyalty among customers over the years. Many of them also have a strong global presence as well.
| BLMN | SBUX | BLMN / SBUX | |
| Capitalization | 706M | 115B | 1% |
| EBITDA | 219M | 4.77B | 5% |
| Gain YTD | 35.008 | 20.397 | 172% |
| P/E Ratio | 34.71 | 76.45 | 45% |
| Revenue | 3.97B | 38.5B | 10% |
| Total Cash | 71.3M | 1.7B | 4% |
| Total Debt | 1.97B | 24.4B | 8% |
BLMN | SBUX | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 28 | 12 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 19 Undervalued | 21 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 99 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 84 | 8 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 45 | 51 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 5 | 8 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
BLMN's Valuation (19) in the Restaurants industry is in the same range as SBUX (21). This means that BLMN’s stock grew similarly to SBUX’s over the last 12 months.
SBUX's Profit vs Risk Rating (99) in the Restaurants industry is in the same range as BLMN (100). This means that SBUX’s stock grew similarly to BLMN’s over the last 12 months.
SBUX's SMR Rating (8) in the Restaurants industry is significantly better than the same rating for BLMN (84). This means that SBUX’s stock grew significantly faster than BLMN’s over the last 12 months.
BLMN's Price Growth Rating (45) in the Restaurants industry is in the same range as SBUX (51). This means that BLMN’s stock grew similarly to SBUX’s over the last 12 months.
BLMN's P/E Growth Rating (5) in the Restaurants industry is in the same range as SBUX (8). This means that BLMN’s stock grew similarly to SBUX’s over the last 12 months.
| BLMN | SBUX | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 66% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 57% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 49% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 62% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 55% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 59% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 12 days ago 57% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 78% | 22 days ago 58% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 62% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 56% |
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BLMN and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, BLMN has been loosely correlated with DIN. These tickers have moved in lockstep 50% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if BLMN jumps, then DIN could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To BLMN | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BLMN | 100% | +3.35% | ||
| DIN - BLMN | 50% Loosely correlated | -2.28% | ||
| FRSH - BLMN | 50% Loosely correlated | +0.79% | ||
| TXRH - BLMN | 48% Loosely correlated | +1.08% | ||
| BJRI - BLMN | 47% Loosely correlated | +0.31% | ||
| CBRL - BLMN | 43% Loosely correlated | -2.57% | ||
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SBUX and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SBUX has been loosely correlated with FRSH. These tickers have moved in lockstep 53% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if SBUX jumps, then FRSH could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To SBUX | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SBUX | 100% | -0.50% | ||
| FRSH - SBUX | 53% Loosely correlated | +0.79% | ||
| YUM - SBUX | 47% Loosely correlated | -0.82% | ||
| CAKE - SBUX | 41% Loosely correlated | -0.35% | ||
| BLMN - SBUX | 39% Loosely correlated | +3.35% | ||
| CMG - SBUX | 37% Loosely correlated | -6.00% | ||
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