BND
Price
$71.50
Change
+$0.30 (+0.42%)
Updated
Nov 4, 04:59 PM (EDT)
Net Assets
166.83B
Intraday BUY SELL Signals
VCRB
Price
$74.90
Change
+$0.29 (+0.39%)
Updated
Nov 4, 03:31 PM (EDT)
Net Assets
8.09B
Intraday BUY SELL Signals
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BND vs VCRB

BND vs VCRB Comparison Chart in %
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A.I.Advisor
Nov 02, 2026

Which ETF would AI Choose? Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) vs. Vanguard Core Bond ETF (VCRB)

Key Takeaways

  • BND is a passive, index-based core bond fund tracking the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Float Adjusted Index, while VCRB is an actively managed fund that uses the same index as its benchmark but seeks to outperform it.
  • BND offers broader diversification with roughly 11,000 holdings and an ultra-low 0.03% expense ratio, whereas VCRB holds about 2,500 bonds and charges 0.10%.
  • VCRB carries meaningfully more credit and foreign exposure, with a larger share in corporate bonds and non-U.S. issuers, giving it a higher yield profile than BND.
  • Both funds share a nearly identical duration near 5.7–5.8 years, so their interest-rate sensitivity is broadly comparable despite different construction methods.
  • Cost efficiency and scale strongly favor BND, while tactical flexibility and income generation tilt toward VCRB.
  • Tickeron AI Verdict: Between the two, Tickeron's AI would currently favor VCRB for its active-management adaptability and stronger income profile in a shifting rate environment.

Introduction

Fixed-income investors increasingly weigh two questions at once: how cheaply can I own the broad bond market, and can an active manager add value through security selection and duration positioning? The BND and VCRB ETFs sit on opposite sides of this debate. Both target the U.S. investment-grade bond market and share the same benchmark, but they pursue it through very different structures. This ETF comparison examines how sector exposure, cost, diversification, and active versus passive design shape fund performance and relative positioning for investors deciding where to place core fixed-income capital today.

Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) Overview

The Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) is a passively managed, index-tracking fund that seeks to replicate the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Float Adjusted Index, a broad measure of investment-grade, U.S. dollar-denominated, taxable bonds with maturities of more than one year. Launched in 2007, it is one of the largest and most liquid bond ETFs in the world, with roughly $159 billion in ETF assets and more than 11,000 individual holdings.

Its portfolio is dominated by U.S. government debt, with Treasury and agency securities near 49%, government mortgage-backed securities (MBS) around 19%, corporate industrials near 15%, and financials near 8%. Top holdings are individual U.S. Treasury notes, each representing well under 1% of assets. The fund carries a 0.03% expense ratio, an average duration of about 5.8 years, and an average effective maturity of roughly 8.2 years. Because it uses index sampling, BND delivers broad, low-cost market exposure without active bets on credit or rates.

Vanguard Core Bond ETF (VCRB) Overview

The Vanguard Core Bond ETF (VCRB) is an actively managed fund that also benchmarks to the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Float Adjusted Index but aims to outperform it through security selection, sector allocation, and duration positioning. Introduced in late 2023, the fund is smaller, with roughly $4 billion to $8 billion in assets and about 2,500 holdings.

Its managers tilt the portfolio more aggressively toward spread sectors: Treasury and agency exposure sits near 24%, government MBS around 21%, corporate industrials near 15%, financials near 13%, and foreign issues around 12%. Top holdings include U.S. Treasury notes, supranational issuers such as the Asian Development Bank, and agency MBS. VCRB charges a 0.10% expense ratio, with an average duration near 5.7 years and effective maturity around 8.3 years. Its higher turnover (above 400%) reflects active repositioning, and its credit-quality mix skews more toward BBB-rated corporate debt than its passive counterpart.

Industry and Thematic Backdrop

Both ETFs operate within the U.S. investment-grade fixed-income market, which remains heavily influenced by Federal Reserve policy, inflation expectations, and the trajectory of Treasury yields. After a period of elevated yields, investors have been weighing the trade-off between locking in income and protecting against further rate moves. Corporate credit spreads have stayed relatively tight, favoring managers who can selectively add value rather than simply replicate the index.

Capital flows have also shifted toward actively managed bond ETFs, reflecting demand for duration flexibility and credit selection as the rate cycle matures. Regulatory and macro developments, including fiscal-deficit dynamics and mortgage-market conditions, continue to shape the MBS and Treasury segments that dominate both funds. The key sector risk remains interest-rate volatility, which affects all investment-grade strategies regardless of construction method.

Performance and Positioning Comparison

Over recent market cycles, VCRB has generally outpaced BND on a total-return basis, aided by its greater allocation to higher-yielding corporate and foreign bonds and its ability to adjust duration tactically. This performance gap is most pronounced during periods of tightening credit spreads and stable-to-declining yields, when active overweight positions in spread sectors contribute positively.

BND, by contrast, offers lower tracking risk and a purer expression of the broad bond market, making it a steadier holding during risk-off episodes. Its heavier Treasury weighting provides stronger defensive characteristics, though at the cost of lower income. Relative positioning thus hinges on investor preference: BND favors cost-conscious, index-pure exposure, while VCRB leans into active income generation and modestly higher credit risk.

AI Screener

Tickeron's AI Screener is an AI-powered stock and ETF discovery tool that helps traders and investors filter the market based on technical patterns, fundamentals, trends, volatility, and AI-driven signals. Users can scan thousands of stocks and ETFs using customizable filters such as industry, market capitalization, technical indicators, price patterns, and performance metrics. The screener helps identify trade ideas, trending stocks, breakout candidates, and market opportunities more efficiently than manual screening. Explore the AI Screener to uncover high-probability setups aligned with your own strategy.

Tickeron AI Verdict

Weighing structural strength, cost efficiency, diversification, and trend consistency, Tickeron's AI would currently favor VCRB over BND. While BND holds clear advantages in scale and a rock-bottom 0.03% fee, VCRB's active management provides the flexibility to adapt duration and credit exposure to changing rate conditions, alongside a notably higher income yield. Its stronger recent relative momentum and greater spread-sector participation suggest it is better positioned to capture incremental returns in the current environment. The AI's preference is probabilistic and reflects observable factors rather than any guarantee of future outcomes.

Disclaimer

The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.

Disclaimers and Limitations

VS
BND vs. VCRB commentary
Nov 04, 2026

To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is BND is a Buy and VCRB is a Hold.

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SUMMARIES
A.I.Advisor
a Summary for BND with price predictions
Nov 03, 2026

BND's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for BND turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where BND's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 22 of 42 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 52%.

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 12, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on BND as a result. In 41 of 81 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 51%.

BND moved above its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.

The 10-day moving average for BND crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 28, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 8 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 50%.

Following a +0.52% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BND advanced for three days, in 149 of 300 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 50%.

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 128 of 245 cases where BND Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 52%.

Bearish Trend Analysis

The 10-day RSI Indicator for BND moved out of overbought territory on November 03, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 32 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 14 of the 32 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 44%.

The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 16 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BND declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 51%.

BND broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

A.I.Advisor
a Summary for VCRB with price predictions
Nov 03, 2026

Momentum Indicator for VCRB turns positive, indicating new upward trend

VCRB saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 12, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 43 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 22 of the 43 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 51%.

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for VCRB just turned positive on October 09, 2026. Looking at past instances where VCRB's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 11 of 24 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 46%.

VCRB moved above its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.

The 10-day moving average for VCRB crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 3 of 8 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 38%.

Following a +0.61% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where VCRB advanced for three days, in 93 of 189 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 49%.

Bearish Trend Analysis

The 10-day RSI Indicator for VCRB moved out of overbought territory on November 02, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 21 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 6 of the 21 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 29%.

The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 16 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where VCRB declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 39%.

VCRB broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

The Aroon Indicator for VCRB entered a downward trend on October 16, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Technical Analysis
BNDVCRB
RSI
ODDS (%)
Bearish Trend 2 days ago
44%
Bearish Trend 2 days ago
29%
Stochastic
ODDS (%)
Bearish Trend 2 days ago
43%
Bearish Trend 2 days ago
36%
Momentum
ODDS (%)
Bullish Trend 2 days ago
51%
Bullish Trend 2 days ago
51%
MACD
ODDS (%)
Bullish Trend 2 days ago
52%
Bullish Trend 2 days ago
46%
TrendWeek
ODDS (%)
Bullish Trend 2 days ago
51%
Bearish Trend 2 days ago
38%
TrendMonth
ODDS (%)
Bullish Trend 2 days ago
51%
Bullish Trend 2 days ago
51%
Advances
ODDS (%)
Bullish Trend 6 days ago
50%
Bullish Trend 6 days ago
49%
Declines
ODDS (%)
Bearish Trend about 1 month ago
51%
Bearish Trend 2 days ago
39%
BollingerBands
ODDS (%)
Bearish Trend 2 days ago
51%
Bearish Trend 2 days ago
42%
Aroon
ODDS (%)
Bullish Trend 2 days ago
52%
Bearish Trend 2 days ago
51%
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VCRB and

Correlation & Price change

A.I.dvisor tells us that VCRB and PBH have been poorly correlated (+13% of the time) for the last year. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is low statistical probability that VCRB and PBH's prices will move in lockstep.

1D
1W
1M
1Q
6M
1Y
5Y
Ticker /
NAME
Correlation
To VCRB
1D Price
Change %
VCRB100%
-0.16%
PBH - VCRB
13%
Poorly correlated
-0.38%
WS - VCRB
1%
Poorly correlated
-3.78%
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