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CAT vs TEX
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Caterpillar (CAT) vs. Terex (TEX) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- CAT is a diversified industrial giant with a record order backlog and broad exposure to mining, construction, and power generation, while TEX is a smaller, more focused lifting and materials-handling company expanding into specialty vehicles.
- Caterpillar has delivered faster revenue growth and stronger earnings momentum, while Terex trades at a materially lower forward valuation.
- Both stocks have benefited from resilient industrial demand, but CAT carries greater exposure to tariffs and global cyclical forces, whereas TEX is increasingly concentrated in U.S.-based, defensive end markets.
- Relative performance has favored CAT over the trailing year, though its richer multiple and recent pullback highlight valuation risk.
- Investor focus for TEX centers on integration of its recent REV Group acquisition, while CAT's narrative is tied to power demand, data-center buildout, and backlog conversion.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines two manufacturers of heavy equipment that serve adjacent but distinct parts of the industrial economy. CAT, Caterpillar Inc., is a global leader in construction and mining machinery, diesel and natural gas engines, and power systems. TEX, Terex Corporation, designs and builds lifting and material-handling equipment, as well as an expanding portfolio of specialty vehicles. Investors weighing cyclical industrials against more specialized mid-cap names, or those comparing valuation against growth momentum, may find this relative performance analysis useful.
CAT Overview and Recent Performance
Caterpillar operates across three primary segments and has reported accelerating financial results in recent quarters. First-quarter sales and revenues rose 22% year over year to $17.4 billion, and the company followed with second-quarter revenue of roughly $20.5 billion, up about 24% and exceeding $20 billion for the first time in its history. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) climbed sharply, reflecting higher sales volume and favorable pricing.
The company has cited a record order backlog as a key source of forward visibility. Strong end-market demand across mining, energy, and construction—along with growing interest tied to power generation and data-center expansion—has supported sentiment. However, tariffs and higher manufacturing costs have pressured operating margins, and the stock has pulled back from recent highs in recent weeks as investors weigh valuation and interest-rate dynamics. Shares have nonetheless outperformed the broader industrial sector over the trailing year, trading above longer-term moving averages.
TEX Overview and Recent Performance
Terex has been reshaping its portfolio toward more U.S.-based, resilient end markets. The company's segments span materials processing, environmental solutions, aerials, utilities, and a recently added specialty-vehicles business following its acquisition of REV Group. First-quarter net sales rose 41% year over year to $1.73 billion, and second-quarter sales grew about 50% to $2.24 billion, helped by the acquisition's contribution and broad demand.
Management has reiterated and subsequently raised its full-year outlook, reflecting solid bookings and a backlog of roughly $7.1 billion. Terex is targeting roughly $28 million in synergies in 2026 from the REV integration, with a longer-term run-rate goal of $75 million. Recent market activity has been supported by strength in utilities, waste and recycling, and fire and emergency vehicles. Compared with Caterpillar, Terex is a smaller company with a lower valuation multiple, but its growth strategy relies more heavily on acquisition integration and margin improvement.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies differ most clearly in scale and diversification. Caterpillar is a multi-segment global leader with a market capitalization many times larger than Terex's, giving it deeper exposure to worldwide construction, mining, and energy cycles. Terex, by contrast, has deliberately concentrated roughly 80% of its revenue in North America, with much of that production based in the United States—a positioning that reduces its sensitivity to global trade policy but limits geographic diversification.
Growth profiles also diverge. CAT's revenue acceleration has been driven organically by volume and pricing, while TEX's headline sales growth has been amplified by the REV acquisition. On valuation, CAT trades at a premium forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple relative to its industry, whereas TEX trades at a notably lower multiple, reflecting its smaller scale and integration risk.
Risk factors vary accordingly. Caterpillar faces tariff-related cost pressures and questions about whether its backlog can sustain momentum; Terex faces execution risk around integrating REV and a strategic review of its Aerials business. Sector exposure is another contrast: CAT leans toward mining, energy, and construction, while TEX tilts toward utilities, waste management, and emergency services—often viewed as more defensive demand drivers.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, earnings momentum, and forward visibility, Tickeron's AI would likely favor CAT over TEX in the current environment. Caterpillar's record backlog, broad-based revenue growth, and established uptrend signal stronger relative positioning, even as its richer valuation introduces greater sensitivity to any slowdown. Terex offers an attractive valuation and a compelling synergy story, but its near-term results are more dependent on acquisition integration. The AI verdict is probabilistic rather than definitive: CAT appears better positioned for trend-following strategies, while TEX may appeal to value-oriented and catalyst-driven approaches.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CAT is a Hold and TEX is a Buy.
CAT in downward trend: 10-day moving average broke below 50-day moving average on October 13, 2026
The 10-day moving average for CAT crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 13, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 12 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 86%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 08, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on CAT as a result. In 32 of 73 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 44%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for CAT turned negative on October 09, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 26 of the 45 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 58%.
CAT moved below its 50-day moving average on October 07, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 50-day moving average for CAT moved below the 200-day moving average on October 21, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CAT declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 57%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator entered the oversold zone -- be on the watch for CAT's price rising or consolidating in the future. That's also the time to consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 9 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +2.13% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CAT advanced for three days, in 277 of 376 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
CAT may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 196 of 306 cases where CAT Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 64%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 19 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 21 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 31 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 81, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CAT’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 91 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: CAT's P/B Ratio (17.543) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (2.561). P/E Ratio (31.714) is within average values for comparable stocks, (3.171). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.435) is also within normal values, averaging (1.745). Dividend Yield (0.009) settles around the average of (0.016) among similar stocks. CAT's P/S Ratio (4.892) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (1.128).
TEX's RSI Oscillator recovers from oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for TEX moved out of oversold territory on October 12, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 26 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 22 of the 26 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 85%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 45 of 63 cases where TEX's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TEX just turned positive on October 20, 2026. Looking at past instances where TEX's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 35 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
Following a +4.55% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TEX advanced for three days, in 209 of 291 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
TEX may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 50-day moving average for TEX moved below the 200-day moving average on October 07, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TEX declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
The Aroon Indicator for TEX entered a downward trend on October 21, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 20 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 58 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.232) is normal, around the industry mean (2.561). P/E Ratio (24.684) is within average values for comparable stocks, (3.171). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.038) is also within normal values, averaging (1.745). Dividend Yield (0.013) settles around the average of (0.016) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.755) is also within normal values, averaging (1.128).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 73 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. TEX’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 76 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. TEX’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 81, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 84 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
CAT | TEX | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 70 | 10 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 91 Overvalued | 58 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 31 | 76 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 19 | 84 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 59 | 73 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 21 | 20 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
TEX's Valuation (58) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CAT (91). This means that TEX’s stock grew somewhat faster than CAT’s over the last 12 months.
CAT's Profit vs Risk Rating (31) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is somewhat better than the same rating for TEX (76). This means that CAT’s stock grew somewhat faster than TEX’s over the last 12 months.
CAT's SMR Rating (19) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is somewhat better than the same rating for TEX (84). This means that CAT’s stock grew somewhat faster than TEX’s over the last 12 months.
CAT's Price Growth Rating (59) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is in the same range as TEX (73). This means that CAT’s stock grew similarly to TEX’s over the last 12 months.
TEX's P/E Growth Rating (20) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is in the same range as CAT (21). This means that TEX’s stock grew similarly to CAT’s over the last 12 months.
| CAT | TEX | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 69% | 1 day ago 85% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 74% | 1 day ago 71% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 44% | N/A |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 58% | 1 day ago 74% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 60% | 1 day ago 70% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 1 day ago 71% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 17 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 72% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 57% | 4 days ago 67% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 80% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 73% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CAT’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green while TEX’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- CAT’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- TEX’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CAT’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TEX’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CAT’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 6 bearish.
- TEX’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
CAT (@Trucks/Construction/Farm Machinery) experienced а -4.29% price change this week, while TEX (@Trucks/Construction/Farm Machinery) price change was +1.65% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Trucks/Construction/Farm Machinery industry was -3.15%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -12.90%, and the average quarterly price growth was -6.66%.
Reported Earning Dates
CAT is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
TEX is expected to report earnings on Oct 28, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Trucks/Construction/Farm Machinery (-3.15% weekly)The industry designs and builds agricultural, construction and other large commercial and transportation equipment. Tractors, planters and harvesters, as well as rock-crushing, railroad, demolition and other construction implements are produced by this industry. Rapid urbanization and industrialization has been bolstering the expansion of the construction sector in the past few decades, thereby boosting demand for heavy equipment businesses. Caterpillar Inc., Deere & Company and Cummins Inc (Ex. Cummins Engine Inc) are some prominent companies in this industry.
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TEX and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TEX has been closely correlated with OSK. These tickers have moved in lockstep 66% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TEX jumps, then OSK could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To TEX | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEX | 100% | -1.81% | ||
| OSK - TEX | 66% Closely correlated | -0.91% | ||
| MTW - TEX | 60% Loosely correlated | -2.64% | ||
| CAT - TEX | 58% Loosely correlated | -4.89% | ||
| ASTE - TEX | 55% Loosely correlated | -1.67% | ||
| PCAR - TEX | 54% Loosely correlated | -0.57% | ||
More | ||||
| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| FDIV | 27.99 | 0.50 | +1.80% |
| MarketDesk Focused U.S. Dividend ETF (FDIV) | |||
| VCRB | 74.67 | 0.52 | +0.70% |
| Vanguard Core Bond ETF (VCRB) | |||
| BAIV | 28.63 | 0.04 | +0.12% |
| Brown Advisory International Value Select ETF (BAIV) | |||
| ILIT | 10.35 | -0.30 | -2.82% |
| iShares Lithium Miners and Producers ETF (ILIT) | |||
| ULTY | 22.68 | -0.92 | -3.90% |
| YieldMax Ultra Option Income Strategy ETF (ULTY) | |||