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CHEF vs PFGC
Which Stock Would AI Choose? The Chefs' Warehouse (CHEF) vs. Performance Food Group (PFGC) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- CHEF delivered stronger recent revenue growth and raised full-year 2026 sales guidance following robust second-quarter results, while PFGC tightened its fiscal 2026 outlook after earlier quarterly performance.
- CHEF has outperformed on a year-to-date and trailing twelve-month basis with returns exceeding 70%, compared to more moderate gains for PFGC near 25% year-to-date.
- Both companies operate in the food distribution sector, yet CHEF focuses on specialty products for high-end clients, whereas PFGC serves a broader customer base through multiple divisions including convenience and specialty channels.
- Recent market activity shows CHEF benefiting from positive earnings momentum and analyst target increases, while PFGC exhibits greater stability with narrower guidance adjustments reflecting visibility into remaining fiscal periods.
- Sector exposure remains aligned for both, though CHEF demonstrates higher sensitivity to premium dining trends and PFGC to volume across independent and chain restaurants plus convenience outlets.
Introduction
The Chefs' Warehouse (CHEF) and Performance Food Group (PFGC) represent two prominent players in the food distribution industry, offering investors exposure to supply chain dynamics serving restaurants, hotels, and other foodservice operators. This comparison examines their business models, recent stock performance, and relative positioning amid evolving consumer and economic conditions. Institutional and retail traders monitoring sector rotation or seeking differentiated exposure within consumer defensive stocks may find the analysis useful for evaluating momentum, risk profiles, and market sentiment between these specialized and broadline distributors.
CHEF Overview and Recent Performance
The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. (CHEF) specializes in distributing premium and specialty food products, including artisanal cheeses, charcuterie, seafood, and center-of-the-plate items, primarily to independent restaurants, fine dining establishments, hotels, and gourmet retailers across North America. In recent market activity, the stock has reflected strong operational execution, with second-quarter 2026 net sales reaching approximately $1.17 billion alongside a significant increase in net income. The company raised its full-year 2026 net sales guidance to a range of $4.50–4.60 billion, citing improved operating leverage and regional strength. These developments contributed to elevated year-to-date returns near 76% and one-month gains exceeding 14% amid positive analyst commentary, though some consolidation occurred following earlier peaks.
PFGC Overview and Recent Performance
Performance Food Group Company (PFGC) operates as a broadline foodservice distributor, supplying over 250,000 products through its Foodservice, Convenience, and Specialty divisions to restaurants, institutions, convenience stores, and other outlets nationwide. Recent quarterly results highlighted organic case volume growth of 3.7% in the third quarter of fiscal 2026, supported by independent customer strength. The company subsequently narrowed its full-year fiscal 2026 net sales guidance to $67.7–68.0 billion and adjusted EBITDA to $1.9–1.93 billion, reflecting greater visibility into the remaining period. Stock performance showed more measured gains, with year-to-date returns near 25% and relatively contained volatility compared to smaller peers in the sector.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
In business model terms, CHEF emphasizes higher-margin specialty offerings targeted at premium and independent operators, creating greater exposure to discretionary dining trends, while PFGC leverages scale across broadline distribution with significant convenience and institutional channels that provide more stable volume. Growth drivers differ accordingly: CHEF has highlighted recent earnings beats and raised guidance tied to network expansion, whereas PFGC has focused on consistent case volume improvements and prudent guidance refinements. Recent momentum favors CHEF with sharper price appreciation following its quarterly update, contrasting PFGC’s steadier trajectory. Risk factors include CHEF’s smaller size and higher sensitivity to supply-chain or economic shifts affecting fine dining, versus PFGC’s larger footprint that may buffer volatility but limit upside from niche trends. Market sentiment reflects these contrasts, with CHEF attracting more frequent analyst target revisions upward in recent weeks.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency following earnings releases, recent guidance revisions, and relative price momentum, Tickeron’s AI would currently assign a higher probabilistic preference to CHEF for its demonstrated earnings momentum and elevated returns in the recent period. PFGC presents a more stable profile with narrower guidance adjustments, which may appeal in lower-volatility scenarios. This assessment draws solely from publicly available performance patterns and sector positioning without implying future outcomes.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CHEF is a Hold and PFGC is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CHEF’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whilePFGC’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- CHEF’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- PFGC’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CHEF’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PFGC’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CHEF’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- PFGC’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
CHEF (@Food Distributors) experienced а +1.40% price change this week, while PFGC (@Food Distributors) price change was -2.12% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Food Distributors industry was -3.07%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.07%, and the average quarterly price growth was +1.74%.
Reported Earning Dates
CHEF is expected to report earnings on Nov 04, 2026.
PFGC is expected to report earnings on Nov 11, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Food Distributors (-3.07% weekly)Food distributors function as intermediaries between food manufacturers and food service operators (such as chefs, restaurants, beverage managers, cafeterias, industrial caterers, hospitals and nursing homes). Food distribution companies buy, store and then supply food items to the food service operators, thereby allowing the latter to have access to a wide range of food items from various manufacturers. Sysco Corporation, US Foods Holding Corp. and Herbalife Nutrition Ltd. are some of the biggest (by market cap) U.S. companies in this segment. Most food service operators buy from local, specialty, and/or broad line food service distributors on a daily or weekly basis. With the rise in e-commerce, consumers are increasingly expecting lower prices, faster service, and higher quality – something that potentially creates the impetus on distribution networks to raise their game.
| CHEF | PFGC | CHEF / PFGC | |
| Capitalization | 4.51B | 16.5B | 27% |
| EBITDA | 256M | 1.64B | 16% |
| Gain YTD | 77.459 | 16.748 | 462% |
| P/E Ratio | 52.67 | 45.84 | 115% |
| Revenue | 4.39B | 66.7B | 7% |
| Total Cash | 135M | 45.9M | 294% |
| Total Debt | 947M | 7.88B | 12% |
CHEF | PFGC | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 60 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 87 Overvalued | 57 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 5 | 20 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 56 | 78 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 37 | 52 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 19 | 48 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
PFGC's Valuation (57) in the Food Distributors industry is in the same range as CHEF (87). This means that PFGC’s stock grew similarly to CHEF’s over the last 12 months.
CHEF's Profit vs Risk Rating (5) in the Food Distributors industry is in the same range as PFGC (20). This means that CHEF’s stock grew similarly to PFGC’s over the last 12 months.
CHEF's SMR Rating (56) in the Food Distributors industry is in the same range as PFGC (78). This means that CHEF’s stock grew similarly to PFGC’s over the last 12 months.
CHEF's Price Growth Rating (37) in the Food Distributors industry is in the same range as PFGC (52). This means that CHEF’s stock grew similarly to PFGC’s over the last 12 months.
CHEF's P/E Growth Rating (19) in the Food Distributors industry is in the same range as PFGC (48). This means that CHEF’s stock grew similarly to PFGC’s over the last 12 months.
| CHEF | PFGC | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 79% | 3 days ago 75% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 81% | 3 days ago 80% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 83% | 3 days ago 64% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 61% | N/A |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 77% | 3 days ago 63% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 75% | 3 days ago 64% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 77% | 3 days ago 71% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 69% | 6 days ago 66% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 76% | 3 days ago 72% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 75% | 3 days ago 69% |
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CHEF and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CHEF has been loosely correlated with PFGC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 41% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if CHEF jumps, then PFGC could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To CHEF | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHEF | 100% | +1.63% | ||
| PFGC - CHEF | 41% Loosely correlated | +0.96% | ||
| SYY - CHEF | 22% Poorly correlated | +1.25% | ||
| AVO - CHEF | 11% Poorly correlated | +0.38% | ||
| USFD - CHEF | 7% Poorly correlated | +1.07% | ||
| MTEX - CHEF | 7% Poorly correlated | N/A | ||
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PFGC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PFGC has been loosely correlated with USFD. These tickers have moved in lockstep 59% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if PFGC jumps, then USFD could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To PFGC | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PFGC | 100% | +0.96% | ||
| USFD - PFGC | 59% Loosely correlated | +1.07% | ||
| CHEF - PFGC | 41% Loosely correlated | +1.63% | ||
| SYY - PFGC | 40% Loosely correlated | +1.25% | ||
| UNFI - PFGC | 30% Poorly correlated | +2.74% | ||
| AVO - PFGC | 4% Poorly correlated | +0.38% | ||
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