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CHEF vs PFGC
Which Stock Would AI Choose? The Chefs' Warehouse (CHEF) vs. Performance Food Group (PFGC) Stock Comparison
1) Key Takeaways
- CHEF is a specialty distributor focused on premium, chef-driven foodservice, while PFGC is a diversified, large-scale foodservice and convenience distributor with a much larger revenue base.
- CHEF has posted stronger recent relative price momentum and double-digit organic sales growth, but trades at a premium valuation.
- PFGC carries a lower forward valuation and broader scale, yet has lagged the market in recent months amid softer restaurant traffic trends.
- Both companies are expanding margins and market share, but they differ sharply in size, customer mix, and sensitivity to discretionary dining demand.
- Analyst consensus is constructive on both names, though sentiment on CHEF has strengthened most in recent weeks.
2) Introduction
Investors tracking the food distribution sector often weigh specialty, high-margin operators against large-scale broadline distributors. That is precisely the contrast between CHEF, The Chefs' Warehouse, and PFGC, Performance Food Group. Both supply food away from home, yet they serve different customers, operate at different scales, and respond differently to the same industry forces. This stock comparison examines recent performance, growth drivers, risk factors, and market positioning to help traders and investors understand how these two names measure up in the current environment. The analysis is especially relevant for those weighing momentum against value, and for readers interested in how AI-driven systems assess relative positioning across the two tickers.
3) CHEF Overview and Recent Performance
CHEF (The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc.) is a specialty food distributor serving fine-dining restaurants, upscale casual chains, hotels, resorts, caterers, and specialty retailers across the United States, the Middle East, and Canada. Its catalog spans artisan cheeses, charcuterie, oils, caviar, truffles, custom-cut beef, and seafood—products tied closely to premium dining and travel demand.
Recent market activity has favored the stock. Shares have advanced significantly over the past several months, with the 52-week range extending from the mid-$50s to above $118, reflecting sustained momentum and a roughly doubling of market capitalization over the past year. The company's fiscal second-quarter 2026 results reinforced the narrative: adjusted earnings per share (EPS) rose sharply year over year, organic net sales grew by double digits, and adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) climbed more than 30%. Management also raised full-year guidance and outlined longer-term targets through 2030.
Sentiment has been shaped by improving gross margins, operating leverage, and deleveraging, with net debt leverage falling toward the lower end of the company's target range. The main offsets are cyclical: exposure to discretionary dining and travel, plus a still-recovering Middle East segment that has been pressured by regional conflict and softer hotel occupancy. Valuation has also become a point of debate, as the stock now trades well above its historical median.
4) PFGC Overview and Recent Performance
PFGC (Performance Food Group Company) is one of the largest foodservice distributors in North America, with roughly $68 billion in annual revenue across three segments: foodservice, convenience store distribution, and specialty. The platform spans hundreds of thousands of products, over 300,000 customer locations, and more than 150 distribution centers.
Recent performance has been more mixed. Revenue continued to grow in the low-to-mid single digits, supported by case volume gains, independent customer growth, and acquisitions including the Cheney Brothers deal. Adjusted EBITDA expanded as well. However, the stock has lagged the broader market in recent months, with a notable multi-day slide in September that erased a meaningful portion of its market value. Softer restaurant traffic trends and investor concern about consumer discretionary spending have weighed on sentiment.
Structural developments have also drawn attention, including a CEO transition as Scott McPherson succeeded long-time leader George Holm. Analysts remain generally constructive, citing share gains in independent cases and a lower forward valuation relative to peers. The trade-off is that PFGC's thinner operating margins and broad exposure to restaurants and convenience channels make it more sensitive to macro-driven demand swings than a niche specialty distributor.
5) Trending AI Robots
For traders who prefer a systematic approach to this kind of stock comparison, Tickeron's Trending AI Robots page offers a curated view of algorithmic trading strategies. Tickeron hosts hundreds of AI Trading Bots that collectively trade thousands of different tickers, each with its own trading style, strategy, timeframe, performance history, statistics, and set of securities. Because not every bot suits every market condition, only the most relevant and best-performing strategies earn a place in the Trending AI Robots section, which is continuously updated to reflect current conditions. Visitors can explore bots spanning various holding periods and risk profiles to compare how different systems approach names like CHEF and PFGC. Review the Trending AI Robots list to see which strategies currently lead the rankings.
6) Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast is scale and focus. CHEF is a roughly $4.5 billion market-capitalization specialist earning premium margins on high-value, chef-driven products. PFGC is a roughly $15 billion market-capitalization broadliner operating at thinner margins but across vastly larger volumes and multiple distribution channels.
On growth and momentum, CHEF has shown faster organic top-line growth and stronger recent share-price performance, but it trades at a much higher price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple—reflecting elevated expectations and leaving less room for execution error. PFGC offers a comparatively lower forward valuation and more diversified revenue streams, yet its restaurant-heavy exposure and softer near-term momentum have kept the stock range-bound.
Risk profiles also diverge. CHEF carries geographic concentration risk in the Middle East and sensitivity to premium dining and travel spending. PFGC faces broad exposure to restaurant traffic, convenience-store demand, and food-cost inflation, alongside a larger debt footprint typical of a scaled distributor. For traders, the choice is essentially momentum and margin quality versus scale, diversification, and valuation.
7) Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would most likely favor CHEF in the current environment. The stock exhibits stronger trend consistency, accelerating relative performance, double-digit organic growth, expanding margins, and a series of upward analyst revisions—conditions that algorithmic trend-following and momentum models tend to reward. PFGC offers a more attractive valuation and greater scale, but its softer recent momentum and mixed sentiment reduce its appeal to trend-oriented systems. This assessment reflects a probabilistic, momentum-weighted view rather than a fundamental quality judgment; under different market conditions, the balance of catalysts and relative positioning could shift toward PFGC.
8) Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CHEF is a StrongBuy and PFGC is a Buy.
CHEF's Stochastic Oscillator entering oversold zone
The Stochastic Oscillator for CHEF moved into oversold territory on October 22, 2026. Be on the watch for the price uptrend or consolidation in the future. At that time, consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
Following a +6.01% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CHEF advanced for three days, in 260 of 341 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 236 of 311 cases where CHEF Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 76%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 20, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on CHEF as a result. In 54 of 84 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 64%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for CHEF turned negative on October 19, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 51 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 37 of the 51 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 73%.
CHEF moved below its 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CHEF declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 68%.
CHEF broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 7 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 65, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 19 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 37 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CHEF’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 55 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 89 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (6.752) is normal, around the industry mean (2.925). P/E Ratio (45.080) is within average values for comparable stocks, (55.243). CHEF's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.910) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (0.741). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.014) among similar stocks. CHEF's P/S Ratio (1.148) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (0.357).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
PFGC in +2.84% Uptrend, growing for three consecutive days on October 16, 2026
Moving higher for three straight days is viewed as a bullish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future growth. Considering data from situations where PFGC advanced for three days, in 226 of 324 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on September 29, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on PFGC as a result. In 53 of 83 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for PFGC just turned positive on September 23, 2026. Looking at past instances where PFGC's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 29 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
PFGC moved above its 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 219 of 323 cases where PFGC Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 68%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for PFGC moved out of overbought territory on October 19, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 57 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 31 of the 57 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 54%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 12 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The 50-day moving average for PFGC moved below the 200-day moving average on October 21, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PFGC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
PFGC broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 23 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 65, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 53 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 55 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. PFGC’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 71 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.108) is normal, around the industry mean (2.925). P/E Ratio (42.148) is within average values for comparable stocks, (55.243). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.768) is also within normal values, averaging (0.741). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.014) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.211) is also within normal values, averaging (0.357).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 77 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
CHEF | PFGC | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 91 | 36 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 89 Overvalued | 71 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 7 | 23 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 55 | 77 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 37 | 55 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 19 | 53 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 90 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
PFGC's Valuation (71) in the Food Distributors industry is in the same range as CHEF (89). This means that PFGC’s stock grew similarly to CHEF’s over the last 12 months.
CHEF's Profit vs Risk Rating (7) in the Food Distributors industry is in the same range as PFGC (23). This means that CHEF’s stock grew similarly to PFGC’s over the last 12 months.
CHEF's SMR Rating (55) in the Food Distributors industry is in the same range as PFGC (77). This means that CHEF’s stock grew similarly to PFGC’s over the last 12 months.
CHEF's Price Growth Rating (37) in the Food Distributors industry is in the same range as PFGC (55). This means that CHEF’s stock grew similarly to PFGC’s over the last 12 months.
CHEF's P/E Growth Rating (19) in the Food Distributors industry is somewhat better than the same rating for PFGC (53). This means that CHEF’s stock grew somewhat faster than PFGC’s over the last 12 months.
| CHEF | PFGC | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 54% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 83% | 1 day ago 62% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 64% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 73% | 1 day ago 64% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 66% | 1 day ago 70% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 61% | 1 day ago 67% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 76% | 7 days ago 70% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 68% | 10 days ago 67% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 59% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 68% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CHEF’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while PFGC’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- CHEF’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- PFGC’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CHEF’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PFGC’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CHEF’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
- PFGC’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
CHEF (@Food Distributors) experienced а -2.57% price change this week, while PFGC (@Food Distributors) price change was +1.96% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Food Distributors industry was -4.37%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -6.61%, and the average quarterly price growth was -0.91%.
Reported Earning Dates
CHEF is expected to report earnings on Oct 28, 2026.
PFGC is expected to report earnings on Nov 04, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Food Distributors (-4.37% weekly)Food distributors function as intermediaries between food manufacturers and food service operators (such as chefs, restaurants, beverage managers, cafeterias, industrial caterers, hospitals and nursing homes). Food distribution companies buy, store and then supply food items to the food service operators, thereby allowing the latter to have access to a wide range of food items from various manufacturers. Sysco Corporation, US Foods Holding Corp. and Herbalife Nutrition Ltd. are some of the biggest (by market cap) U.S. companies in this segment. Most food service operators buy from local, specialty, and/or broad line food service distributors on a daily or weekly basis. With the rise in e-commerce, consumers are increasingly expecting lower prices, faster service, and higher quality – something that potentially creates the impetus on distribution networks to raise their game.
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CHEF and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor tells us that CHEF and SYY have been poorly correlated (+25% of the time) for the last year. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is low statistical probability that CHEF and SYY's prices will move in lockstep.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To CHEF | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHEF | 100% | -2.55% | ||
| SYY - CHEF | 25% Poorly correlated | +2.33% | ||
| AVO - CHEF | 11% Poorly correlated | +2.34% | ||
| USFD - CHEF | 5% Poorly correlated | +1.86% | ||
| HFFG - CHEF | 5% Poorly correlated | -1.34% | ||
| ANDE - CHEF | 1% Poorly correlated | -0.91% | ||
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PFGC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PFGC has been loosely correlated with USFD. These tickers have moved in lockstep 60% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if PFGC jumps, then USFD could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To PFGC | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PFGC | 100% | +0.98% | ||
| USFD - PFGC | 60% Loosely correlated | +1.86% | ||
| SYY - PFGC | 41% Loosely correlated | +2.33% | ||
| CHEF - PFGC | 40% Loosely correlated | -2.55% | ||
| UNFI - PFGC | 26% Poorly correlated | +2.23% | ||
| AVO - PFGC | 21% Poorly correlated | +2.34% | ||
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