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PFGC vs USFD
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Performance Food Group Company (PFGC) vs. US Foods Holding Corp. (USFD) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Same industry, different momentum: Both are top U.S. foodservice distributors, yet USFD has outpaced PFGC significantly in recent months.
- PFGC is more diversified across foodservice, convenience, and specialty channels, while USFD is a focused broadline distributor.
- USFD is showing accelerating independent-restaurant case growth, record margins, and active share buybacks.
- PFGC carries a larger revenue base but faced restaurant-traffic headwinds and a higher trailing valuation multiple.
- Analyst consensus is constructive on both names, with USFD currently displaying stronger relative performance and earnings momentum.
Introduction
Performance Food Group Company (PFGC) and US Foods Holding Corp. (USFD) are two of the largest foodservice distributors in the United States, supplying food and related products to restaurants, healthcare facilities, and hospitality customers. Because they operate in the same sector and compete for similar accounts, investors frequently use a stock comparison to judge which business offers better market positioning and relative performance. This analysis is especially relevant for traders and long-term investors tracking consumer-staples and food-distribution themes, as well as those evaluating momentum, margins, and balance-sheet strength across two direct industry rivals.
PFGC Overview and Recent Performance
Performance Food Group Company is one of America's largest foodservice distributors, generating just under $68 billion in revenue in fiscal 2026. Its operations span three segments: foodservice (about 54% of sales), convenience-store distribution, and a specialty segment serving customers such as vending and office-coffee providers. The company has pursued scale through acquisitions, including its Cheney Brothers deal, and has emphasized gains in independent-restaurant case volume.
In recent weeks, PFGC has traded in a range near the lower end of its 52-week span, lagging the broader market since the start of the year. Fiscal third-quarter results beat expectations on adjusted earnings per share (EPS) and revenue, and several analysts lifted price targets, but the shares have contended with softer restaurant traffic and sector-wide pressure. A leadership transition—Scott McPherson succeeding long-serving CEO George Holm—and mixed insider-selling activity have added to investor debate around near-term sentiment.
USFD Overview and Recent Performance
US Foods Holding Corp. is a leading broadline foodservice distributor serving roughly 250,000 customer locations through more than 70 distribution centers and over 90 cash-and-carry stores. Its strategy centers on independent-restaurant share gains, margin expansion through self-help initiatives, and technology such as its MOXY platform, MenuIQ AI tool, and Pronto small-truck delivery service.
In recent market activity, USFD has delivered notably stronger relative performance, advancing by a double-digit percentage year-to-date after a sharp prior-year rally. Quarterly results showed independent-restaurant case growth accelerating to its highest level in years, record adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) margins, and adjusted diluted EPS growth in the low-20% range. Management reaffirmed full-year guidance and repurchased hundreds of millions of dollars in stock, supported by net leverage of about 2.6x and no long-term debt maturities until 2028.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies share a core foodservice-distribution business model but differ in structure and focus. PFGC is more diversified, using its convenience and specialty arms to offset restaurant exposure, while USFD is a more concentrated broadline operator doubling down on independent restaurants and margin improvement.
On growth drivers, USFD has shown faster earnings acceleration, record margins, and active capital returns through buybacks. PFGC counters with larger scale, acquisition-driven expansion, and a wider channel mix. On valuation, PFGC carries a higher trailing P/E (price-to-earnings) multiple, while USFD trades on a lower trailing multiple despite stronger momentum. Both face similar risks—restaurant traffic softness, food-cost inflation, fuel prices, and leverage sensitivity—but USFD currently holds a cleaner balance-sheet profile relative to its earnings growth.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward USFD in the current environment. The company has demonstrated more consistent trend strength, accelerating independent-restaurant case volume, record margins, meaningful share repurchases, and a reaffirmed growth outlook. PFGC retains competitive advantages in scale and diversification, but its softer relative performance, recent leadership transition, and heavier restaurant-linked sentiment make its near-term setup less decisive. This assessment is probabilistic rather than definitive and reflects positioning across trend consistency, stability, and catalysts rather than a fixed recommendation.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is PFGC is a Buy and USFD is a Buy.
PFGC's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for PFGC turned positive on September 23, 2026. Looking at past instances where PFGC's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 32 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on September 29, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on PFGC as a result. In 52 of 83 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
PFGC moved above its 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +2.84% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PFGC advanced for three days, in 226 of 324 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 219 of 323 cases where PFGC Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 68%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for PFGC moved out of overbought territory on October 19, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 56 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 31 of the 56 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 55%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 11 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The 50-day moving average for PFGC moved below the 200-day moving average on October 21, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PFGC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
PFGC broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 24 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 66, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 51 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 51 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. PFGC’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 73 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.108) is normal, around the industry mean (2.962). P/E Ratio (42.148) is within average values for comparable stocks, (54.577). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.768) is also within normal values, averaging (0.741). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.014) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.211) is also within normal values, averaging (0.357).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 77 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
USFD in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026
USFD moved above its 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 26 of 36 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 01, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on USFD as a result. In 56 of 87 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for USFD just turned positive on October 01, 2026. Looking at past instances where USFD's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 34 of 48 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
Following a +3.56% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where USFD advanced for three days, in 200 of 316 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 168 of 286 cases where USFD Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 59%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for USFD moved out of overbought territory on October 21, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 41 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 24 of the 41 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 59%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 11 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where USFD declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 55%.
USFD broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 8 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 66, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 40 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. USFD’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 44 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 53 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 69 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.164) is normal, around the industry mean (2.962). P/E Ratio (31.049) is within average values for comparable stocks, (54.577). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.908) is also within normal values, averaging (0.741). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.014) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.516) is also within normal values, averaging (0.357).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
PFGC | USFD | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 32 | 26 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 73 Overvalued | 69 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 24 | 8 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 77 | 53 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 51 | 40 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 51 | 44 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
USFD's Valuation (69) in the Food Distributors industry is in the same range as PFGC (73). This means that USFD’s stock grew similarly to PFGC’s over the last 12 months.
USFD's Profit vs Risk Rating (8) in the Food Distributors industry is in the same range as PFGC (24). This means that USFD’s stock grew similarly to PFGC’s over the last 12 months.
USFD's SMR Rating (53) in the Food Distributors industry is in the same range as PFGC (77). This means that USFD’s stock grew similarly to PFGC’s over the last 12 months.
USFD's Price Growth Rating (40) in the Food Distributors industry is in the same range as PFGC (51). This means that USFD’s stock grew similarly to PFGC’s over the last 12 months.
USFD's P/E Growth Rating (44) in the Food Distributors industry is in the same range as PFGC (51). This means that USFD’s stock grew similarly to PFGC’s over the last 12 months.
| PFGC | USFD | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 55% | 2 days ago 59% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 59% | 2 days ago 54% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 64% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 71% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 62% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 62% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 70% | 7 days ago 63% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 10 days ago 67% | 23 days ago 55% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 54% | 2 days ago 66% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 59% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
PFGC’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while USFD’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- PFGC’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- USFD’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
PFGC’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while USFD’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- PFGC’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- USFD’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
PFGC (@Food Distributors) experienced а +1.96% price change this week, while USFD (@Food Distributors) price change was +3.76% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Food Distributors industry was -4.38%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -6.68%, and the average quarterly price growth was -1.02%.
Reported Earning Dates
PFGC is expected to report earnings on Nov 04, 2026.
USFD is expected to report earnings on Nov 05, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Food Distributors (-4.38% weekly)Food distributors function as intermediaries between food manufacturers and food service operators (such as chefs, restaurants, beverage managers, cafeterias, industrial caterers, hospitals and nursing homes). Food distribution companies buy, store and then supply food items to the food service operators, thereby allowing the latter to have access to a wide range of food items from various manufacturers. Sysco Corporation, US Foods Holding Corp. and Herbalife Nutrition Ltd. are some of the biggest (by market cap) U.S. companies in this segment. Most food service operators buy from local, specialty, and/or broad line food service distributors on a daily or weekly basis. With the rise in e-commerce, consumers are increasingly expecting lower prices, faster service, and higher quality – something that potentially creates the impetus on distribution networks to raise their game.
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PFGC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PFGC has been loosely correlated with USFD. These tickers have moved in lockstep 60% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if PFGC jumps, then USFD could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To PFGC | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PFGC | 100% | -0.96% | ||
| USFD - PFGC | 60% Loosely correlated | -0.83% | ||
| SYY - PFGC | 41% Loosely correlated | -1.00% | ||
| CHEF - PFGC | 40% Loosely correlated | -0.70% | ||
| UNFI - PFGC | 26% Poorly correlated | -0.49% | ||
| AVO - PFGC | 21% Poorly correlated | -2.61% | ||
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USFD and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, USFD has been loosely correlated with PFGC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 59% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if USFD jumps, then PFGC could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To USFD | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USFD | 100% | -0.83% | ||
| PFGC - USFD | 59% Loosely correlated | -0.96% | ||
| SYY - USFD | 39% Loosely correlated | -1.00% | ||
| CHEF - USFD | 38% Loosely correlated | -0.70% | ||
| UNFI - USFD | 24% Poorly correlated | -0.49% | ||
| DIT - USFD | 6% Poorly correlated | +2.83% | ||
More | ||||