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CM vs TD
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM) vs. Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both CM and TD are leading Canadian banks with diversified operations across personal, commercial, wealth management, and wholesale banking.
- In recent weeks, CM has delivered stronger year-to-date returns and higher reported return on equity (ROE) compared with TD.
- Both institutions reported solid adjusted earnings growth in the second quarter of 2026, supported by revenue expansion and disciplined cost management.
- CM maintains a lower Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio than TD, reflecting differing capital positions amid ongoing share repurchase programs.
- Market sentiment remains constructive for both stocks, with analyst consensus ratings at Moderate Buy and recent price-target upgrades.
- Relative performance has favored CM in the latest period, driven by broader revenue momentum and operational leverage improvements.
Introduction
Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM) and Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) represent two of Canada’s largest financial institutions. Investors and traders frequently compare these peers to assess relative value, growth trajectories, and risk profiles within the Canadian banking sector. The comparison is particularly relevant for those seeking exposure to diversified North American banks that benefit from stable domestic operations and selective international presence. Both stocks trade on major exchanges and attract attention from institutional and retail participants monitoring interest-rate environments, credit trends, and capital-return strategies.
CM Overview and Recent Performance
Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM) operates as a diversified financial services provider with significant operations in Canadian personal and commercial banking, wealth management, and capital markets. In recent market activity, the stock has shown resilience amid broader sector strength, posting year-to-date gains exceeding 30 percent on the Toronto Stock Exchange. Second-quarter 2026 results highlighted adjusted diluted earnings per share growth of 24 percent year-over-year, supported by broad-based revenue increases and positive operating leverage. Key developments include an announced sale of the Caribbean operations, ongoing share buybacks, and analyst price-target increases. Sentiment has benefited from these catalysts and continued capital return initiatives.
TD Overview and Recent Performance
Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) is a major North American financial institution with leading positions in Canadian personal and commercial banking, wealth management, insurance, and wholesale banking, alongside a U.S. retail presence. Recent market activity shows solid year-to-date performance near 27 percent, accompanied by a dividend increase in the second quarter of 2026. Adjusted earnings per share rose 21 percent year-over-year, driven by volume growth in Canadian operations and momentum in markets-driven businesses. The bank continues to advance anti-money laundering remediation efforts in the United States while maintaining a strong Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio. Analyst coverage remains supportive, with recent rating affirmations reflecting steady execution.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM) and Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) share similar business models centered on retail and commercial banking in Canada, yet differ in scale and emphasis. TD maintains a larger overall asset base and broader U.S. footprint, while CM has pursued targeted divestitures to sharpen focus. Recent momentum favors CM, which posted higher adjusted ROE in its latest quarter. Risk factors include credit quality and interest-rate sensitivity for both, with TD carrying additional regulatory considerations in the United States. Sector exposure remains comparable, centered on Canadian economic conditions. Market sentiment reflects constructive analyst views for each, tempered by the trade-off between CM’s higher recent profitability metrics and TD’s greater capital cushion and dividend stability.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as recent trend consistency, return-on-equity trajectory, and relative momentum, Tickeron’s AI would currently assign a modest probabilistic edge to CM. The stock’s stronger second-quarter adjusted ROE and broader revenue momentum provide a slight advantage in the current environment, though both names remain closely positioned within the Canadian banking peer group.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CM is a Hold and TD is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CM’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green whileTD’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- CM’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- TD’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CM’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TD’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CM’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- TD’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
CM (@Major Banks) experienced а -2.72% price change this week, while TD (@Major Banks) price change was -2.38% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Major Banks industry was +1.18%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +0.74%, and the average quarterly price growth was +21.84%.
Reported Earning Dates
CM is expected to report earnings on Aug 27, 2026.
TD is expected to report earnings on Aug 27, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Major Banks (+1.18% weekly)Major banks are among the biggest companies in the world, often times with global reach and market capitalizations in the multi-billions. Large banks often have multiple arms spanning different disciplines, from deposits, to investment banking, to wealth management and insurance. The biggest banks often have key competitive advantages over smaller players in the industry in terms of brand recognition, cost of capital, and efficiency. Think J.P. Morgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup.
| CM | TD | CM / TD | |
| Capitalization | 108B | 197B | 55% |
| EBITDA | N/A | N/A | - |
| Gain YTD | 30.593 | 26.401 | 116% |
| P/E Ratio | 16.19 | 19.28 | 84% |
| Revenue | 31.1B | 63.8B | 49% |
| Total Cash | N/A | N/A | - |
| Total Debt | 216B | 474B | 46% |
CM | TD | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 85 | 79 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 81 Overvalued | 72 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 24 | 31 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 5 | 4 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 46 | 45 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 22 | 9 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 48 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
TD's Valuation (72) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as CM (81) in the Investment Trusts Or Mutual Funds industry. This means that TD’s stock grew similarly to CM’s over the last 12 months.
CM's Profit vs Risk Rating (24) in the Investment Trusts Or Mutual Funds industry is in the same range as TD (31) in the Major Banks industry. This means that CM’s stock grew similarly to TD’s over the last 12 months.
TD's SMR Rating (4) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as CM (5) in the Investment Trusts Or Mutual Funds industry. This means that TD’s stock grew similarly to CM’s over the last 12 months.
TD's Price Growth Rating (45) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as CM (46) in the Investment Trusts Or Mutual Funds industry. This means that TD’s stock grew similarly to CM’s over the last 12 months.
TD's P/E Growth Rating (9) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as CM (22) in the Investment Trusts Or Mutual Funds industry. This means that TD’s stock grew similarly to CM’s over the last 12 months.
| CM | TD | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 51% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 57% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 47% | 2 days ago 41% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 51% | 2 days ago 44% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 52% | 2 days ago 48% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 56% | 2 days ago 46% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 13 days ago 55% | 15 days ago 54% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 52% | 7 days ago 49% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 42% | 2 days ago 54% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 58% |
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TD and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TD has been closely correlated with RY. These tickers have moved in lockstep 76% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TD jumps, then RY could also see price increases.