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CM vs TD
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM) vs. Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- CM (Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce) and TD (Toronto-Dominion Bank) are both major Canadian banks, but they differ sharply in size, U.S. exposure, and recent market narrative.
- TD is the larger franchise with a significant U.S. retail presence, while CM is more concentrated in Canadian personal, business, and wealth banking.
- Both stocks have posted strong 52-week gains, though CM has shown higher volatility (beta above the market average).
- TD is in the later stages of a costly U.S. anti-money-laundering remediation, while CM has been expanding its market positioning without a comparable regulatory overhang.
- Valuation, momentum, and balance-sheet strength create a meaningful trade-off between the two names for different investor profiles.
Introduction
Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM) and Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) are two of Canada's most widely followed financial institutions, and both are frequently compared by investors evaluating exposure to North American banking. This stock comparison is especially relevant for those weighing a more domestically focused Canadian lender against a larger, more diversified bank with a substantial U.S. franchise. Because the two companies have distinct growth drivers, risk profiles, and recent performance trajectories, understanding their relative performance and market positioning can help both long-term investors and active traders make more informed decisions about sector exposure.
CM Overview and Recent Performance
Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM), commonly known as CIBC, is one of Canada's largest banks, providing personal and business banking, commercial banking, wealth management, and capital markets services. Its business is weighted toward the Canadian market, where it holds a strong position in personal and business lending alongside a growing wealth-management platform.
In recent market activity, CM has demonstrated notable momentum, with the shares advancing roughly 40% over the trailing 52 weeks and trading well above their 200-day moving average. This relative strength reflects solid earnings growth, healthy return on equity, and an improving investor sentiment toward Canadian banks generally. However, the stock also carries a five-year beta above 1.0, meaning its price has been more volatile than the broader market. Recent weeks have seen some consolidation after a strong run, a pattern consistent with profit-taking following extended gains.
TD Overview and Recent Performance
Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) is Canada's second-largest bank and one of the largest banks in North America, operating through Canadian Personal and Commercial Banking, U.S. Retail, Wealth Management and Insurance, and Wholesale Banking. A meaningful share of its revenue comes from its U.S. operations, which span from Maine to Florida.
Over the past year, TD has been executing a recovery story centered on improving earnings, record quarterly results, and disciplined cost management. Recent quarters showed strong year-over-year earnings growth and a robust Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio, a key measure of a bank's capital strength. The bank has also been reducing structural costs and investing in artificial intelligence and digital tools. At the same time, TD continues to work through U.S. anti-money-laundering remediation and an asset-cap limitation on its U.S. retail business, factors that keep regulatory and expense considerations in focus for investors.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The most visible contrast between the two banks is scale and geography. TD operates a much larger balance sheet and derives a substantial portion of its revenue from the United States, whereas CM is more dependent on the Canadian economy. This gives TD greater diversification but also exposes it to U.S. regulatory and compliance dynamics, including ongoing anti-money-laundering remediation and an asset cap on its U.S. retail segment.
In terms of market positioning and momentum, CM has shown stronger relative price appreciation over the past year, though it trades with higher volatility. TD, by contrast, offers a lower-beta profile with a steadier recovery narrative built on earnings improvement and cost discipline. On valuation, CM generally trades at a lower forward price-to-earnings multiple, while TD commands a premium reflective of its larger, more diversified franchise.
Risk factors also diverge. CM faces sensitivity to Canadian housing and consumer credit, while TD faces a heavier compliance cost burden and a constrained U.S. growth runway. Both names offer dividend yields, but their growth drivers and catalyst paths remain distinct.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, relative positioning, and catalyst profiles, Tickeron's AI would likely favor CM in the current environment. The stock's stronger trailing momentum, lower relative valuation, and cleaner regulatory setup align with the systematic signals that trend-following algorithms typically reward. That said, TD presents a more stable, diversified profile and a credible earnings-recovery story that may appeal to bots emphasizing lower volatility and balance-sheet strength. The verdict is therefore probabilistic rather than definitive: AI-driven models would likely lean toward CM for momentum and valuation, while acknowledging TD as a steadier alternative for stability-focused strategies.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CM is a Buy and TD is a StrongBuy.
CM in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 21, 2026
CM moved above its 50-day moving average on October 21, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 25 of 37 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 14, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on CM as a result. In 47 of 70 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CM just turned positive on October 13, 2026. Looking at past instances where CM's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 28 of 42 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
Following a +1.66% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CM advanced for three days, in 206 of 368 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 7 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 52%.
CM broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 21, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for CM entered a downward trend on October 19, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 4 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 22 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 21, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 22 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 67 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 74 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.750) is normal, around the industry mean (1.507). P/E Ratio (10.869) is within average values for comparable stocks, (11.677). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.713) is also within normal values, averaging (2.139). Dividend Yield (0.027) settles around the average of (0.035) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.527) is also within normal values, averaging (3.867).
TD's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TD turned positive on October 14, 2026. Looking at past instances where TD's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 31 of 51 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 14, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on TD as a result. In 42 of 75 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
TD moved above its 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for TD crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 8 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
Following a +2.45% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TD advanced for three days, in 175 of 346 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 51%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 189 of 360 cases where TD Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 52%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 7 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TD declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 49%.
TD broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 21, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 3 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 13 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 23 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 21, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 40 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TD’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 69 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.789) is normal, around the industry mean (1.507). P/E Ratio (13.299) is within average values for comparable stocks, (11.677). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.006) is also within normal values, averaging (2.139). Dividend Yield (0.025) settles around the average of (0.035) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.318) is also within normal values, averaging (3.867).
CM | TD | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 74 Overvalued | 69 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 22 | 23 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 4 | 3 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 45 | 40 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 67 | 13 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 22 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
TD's Valuation (69) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as CM (74) in the Investment Trusts Or Mutual Funds industry. This means that TD’s stock grew similarly to CM’s over the last 12 months.
CM's Profit vs Risk Rating (22) in the Investment Trusts Or Mutual Funds industry is in the same range as TD (23) in the Major Banks industry. This means that CM’s stock grew similarly to TD’s over the last 12 months.
TD's SMR Rating (3) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as CM (4) in the Investment Trusts Or Mutual Funds industry. This means that TD’s stock grew similarly to CM’s over the last 12 months.
TD's Price Growth Rating (40) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as CM (45) in the Investment Trusts Or Mutual Funds industry. This means that TD’s stock grew similarly to CM’s over the last 12 months.
TD's P/E Growth Rating (13) in the Major Banks industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CM (67) in the Investment Trusts Or Mutual Funds industry. This means that TD’s stock grew somewhat faster than CM’s over the last 12 months.
| CM | TD | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 3 days ago 45% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 47% | 3 days ago 40% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 67% | 3 days ago 56% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 67% | 3 days ago 61% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 60% | 3 days ago 53% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 57% | 3 days ago 54% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 56% | 4 days ago 51% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 18 days ago 52% | 26 days ago 49% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 43% | 3 days ago 43% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 38% | 3 days ago 52% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CM’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while TD’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- CM’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- TD’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CM’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TD’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CM’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- TD’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
CM (@Major Banks) experienced а +1.37% price change this week, while TD (@Major Banks) price change was +3.51% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Major Banks industry was -1.20%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -4.06%, and the average quarterly price growth was +10.05%.
Reported Earning Dates
CM is expected to report earnings on Dec 03, 2026.
TD is expected to report earnings on Dec 03, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Major Banks (-1.20% weekly)Major banks are among the biggest companies in the world, often times with global reach and market capitalizations in the multi-billions. Large banks often have multiple arms spanning different disciplines, from deposits, to investment banking, to wealth management and insurance. The biggest banks often have key competitive advantages over smaller players in the industry in terms of brand recognition, cost of capital, and efficiency. Think J.P. Morgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup.
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CM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CM has been closely correlated with BMO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 81% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if CM jumps, then BMO could also see price increases.
TD and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TD has been closely correlated with RY. These tickers have moved in lockstep 85% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TD jumps, then RY could also see price increases.