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CNC vs CVS
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Centene Corporation (CNC) vs. CVS Health Corporation (CVS) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Centene and CVS Health both operate in the U.S. managed care and health services space, but with starkly different business models — Centene focuses heavily on government-sponsored programs, while CVS runs an integrated pharmacy, PBM (Pharmacy Benefit Manager), and insurance enterprise.
- In recent market activity, CVS Health has demonstrated stronger share price momentum, recovering sharply from prior-year lows, while Centene has shown a more modest rebound after a turbulent 2025.
- Both companies absorbed significant non-cash goodwill impairment charges in 2025 — $6.7 billion for Centene and $5.7 billion for CVS — reflecting reassessments of certain business units.
- CVS Health offers a dividend yield of approximately 2.5%, whereas Centene does not currently pay a dividend, making the two stocks appeal to different investor profiles.
- CVS Health's 2026 adjusted EPS (earnings per share) guidance of $7.00–$7.20 dwarfs Centene's >$3.00 target, though Centene's projected growth rate off a depressed base is meaningfully higher in percentage terms.
- Both stocks face shared industry headwinds from elevated medical utilization, regulatory uncertainty, and Medicaid redetermination pressures, but their divergent structures create different risk-reward profiles.
Introduction
Investors navigating the healthcare sector often encounter CNC and CVS as two large-cap names worth comparing. While both belong to the managed care and health services universe, they represent fundamentally different approaches to the same market. Centene Corporation specializes in government-sponsored health plans — primarily Medicaid, Medicare, and the Affordable Care Act Marketplace — serving roughly one in 15 Americans. CVS Health Corporation, by contrast, combines a nationwide pharmacy chain, the Caremark PBM, and the Aetna insurance arm into a vertically integrated healthcare giant. This comparison examines how these two stocks stack up across recent performance, business positioning, and forward-looking indicators, offering insights for traders and long-term investors alike.
CNC Overview and Recent Performance
CNC, headquartered in St. Louis, Missouri, is a managed care organization that derives the majority of its revenue from Medicaid and Medicare programs. In recent months, the stock has traded around the mid-$60 range, with a 52-week span between approximately $25 and $69, reflecting the volatility that has characterized its recent trajectory. The company closed out its 2025 fiscal year with full-year total revenues of $194.8 billion, up roughly 19% from the prior year, driven by growth in its Medicare Part D (prescription drug) and Marketplace segments. However, profitability was under severe pressure: Centene posted a GAAP diluted loss of $(13.53) per share for 2025, heavily impacted by a $6.7 billion non-cash goodwill impairment charge recorded in the third quarter. On an adjusted basis, EPS came in at $2.08. The health benefits ratio (HBR), which measures the percentage of premium revenue spent on medical claims, rose to 91.9% for the full year and reached 94.3% in Q4, signaling elevated medical cost trends. In a strategic move, Centene signed a definitive agreement in late 2025 to divest the remaining Magellan Health businesses. Looking ahead, management has guided for 2026 adjusted EPS greater than $3.00, representing a potential turnaround story that has captured market attention.
CVS Overview and Recent Performance
CVS, based in Woonsocket, Rhode Island, operates across three core segments: Health Care Benefits (Aetna), Health Services (including Caremark), and Pharmacy & Consumer Wellness. In recent market activity, the stock has traded near the $106 level, with a 52-week range spanning roughly $58 to $107, reflecting a powerful recovery from prior troughs. For full-year 2025, CVS Health generated record total revenues of $402.1 billion, up 7.8% year over year. Adjusted EPS reached $6.75 — a 24.5% increase from 2024 — while GAAP EPS fell to $1.39, weighed down by a $5.7 billion goodwill impairment in the Health Care Delivery unit and approximately $1.2 billion in legacy litigation charges. Importantly, CVS's medical benefit ratio improved to 91.2% in 2025 from 92.5% in 2024, indicating better cost management within Aetna. The Pharmacy & Consumer Wellness segment benefited from prescription volume growth, including contributions from acquired Rite Aid files. For 2026, management has confirmed adjusted EPS guidance of $7.00 to $7.20, with GAAP EPS projected between $5.94 and $6.14. The company also offers a dividend yield of approximately 2.5%, appealing to income-oriented investors.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The most immediate contrast between these two stocks lies in business model scope. CVS is a diversified healthcare conglomerate: its PBM, pharmacy retail, and insurance arms provide multiple revenue streams that can partially offset weakness in any single segment. CNC, by contrast, is a more concentrated play on government-sponsored health coverage, making it more sensitive to Medicaid policy shifts and regulatory rate decisions. In terms of scale, CVS's $402 billion in annual revenue is more than double Centene's $195 billion, and CVS's market capitalization of approximately $135 billion is roughly four times Centene's $34 billion.
On growth dynamics, Centene has posted faster top-line expansion recently — nearly 19% revenue growth in 2025 — largely fueled by Medicare Part D enrollment surges. CVS's revenue growth, while healthy at 7.8%, is slower but steadier across multiple business lines. Margin profiles also diverge: CVS's medical benefit ratio improved in 2025, while Centene's HBR deteriorated, though Centene projects significant improvement in 2026 with HBR guidance of 90.9%–91.7%. From a capital return standpoint, CVS pays a meaningful dividend and generated $10.6 billion in operating cash flow in 2025; Centene does not pay a dividend but repurchased $475 million in shares during 2025. Risk factors include political and regulatory uncertainty for both, but Centene's narrower focus on Medicaid and Marketplace programs arguably exposes it to more concentrated policy risk.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors evaluated through Tickeron's analytical framework, the AI would likely express a near-term preference for CVS over CNC. CVS Health's combination of stronger share price momentum, improving medical benefit ratio, a diversified revenue base, confirmed 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $7.00–$7.20, and a dividend yield of approximately 2.5% collectively signal greater trend consistency and near-term stability. While Centene's 2026 guidance for adjusted EPS above $3.00 represents a compelling turnaround narrative with a higher percentage growth rate off a depressed base, the company is earlier in its margin recovery cycle and carries more concentrated exposure to government program risk. The AI framework tends to favor stocks with multi-dimensional catalysts, clearer earnings visibility, and established uptrends — characteristics that currently align more closely with CVS Health's profile. This assessment reflects a probabilistic, data-driven view of relative positioning rather than any absolute prediction.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CNC is a Hold and CVS is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CNC’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileCVS’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- CNC’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- CVS’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CNC’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while CVS’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CNC’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 4 bearish.
- CVS’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
CNC (@Managed Health Care) experienced а -4.56% price change this week, while CVS (@Managed Health Care) price change was +0.87% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Managed Health Care industry was -3.04%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +0.36%, and the average quarterly price growth was +26.69%.
Reported Earning Dates
CNC is expected to report earnings on Jul 28, 2026.
CVS is expected to report earnings on Aug 05, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Managed Health Care (-3.04% weekly)Managed healthcare industry focuses on providing health/medical and disability insurance plans, generally intended to reduce the cost of for-profit health care. The insurance products might be provided through employer-paid (fully or partly) insurance and benefit programs, or through Medicare/Medicaid. Some of the largest providers of managed health care include Aetna, Humana Inc., and Cigna, and UnitedHealthcare.
| CNC | CVS | CNC / CVS | |
| Capitalization | 31.3B | 137B | 23% |
| EBITDA | -4.44B | 11.1B | -40% |
| Gain YTD | 54.095 | 38.934 | 139% |
| P/E Ratio | 9.06 | 47.25 | 19% |
| Revenue | 198B | 408B | 49% |
| Total Cash | 23.7B | N/A | - |
| Total Debt | 16.4B | 78.3B | 21% |
CNC | CVS | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 63 | 33 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 59 Fair valued | 4 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 62 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 98 | 88 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 3 | 4 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 69 | 6 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 75 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
CVS's Valuation (4) in the Drugstore Chains industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CNC (59) in the Managed Health Care industry. This means that CVS’s stock grew somewhat faster than CNC’s over the last 12 months.
CVS's Profit vs Risk Rating (62) in the Drugstore Chains industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CNC (100) in the Managed Health Care industry. This means that CVS’s stock grew somewhat faster than CNC’s over the last 12 months.
CVS's SMR Rating (88) in the Drugstore Chains industry is in the same range as CNC (98) in the Managed Health Care industry. This means that CVS’s stock grew similarly to CNC’s over the last 12 months.
CNC's Price Growth Rating (3) in the Managed Health Care industry is in the same range as CVS (4) in the Drugstore Chains industry. This means that CNC’s stock grew similarly to CVS’s over the last 12 months.
CVS's P/E Growth Rating (6) in the Drugstore Chains industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CNC (69) in the Managed Health Care industry. This means that CVS’s stock grew somewhat faster than CNC’s over the last 12 months.
| CNC | CVS | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 59% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 60% | 2 days ago 66% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 69% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 58% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 63% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 62% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 12 days ago 61% | 5 days ago 67% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 3 days ago 58% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 66% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 62% |
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CNC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CNC has been closely correlated with MOH. These tickers have moved in lockstep 66% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if CNC jumps, then MOH could also see price increases.
CVS and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CVS has been loosely correlated with UNH. These tickers have moved in lockstep 62% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if CVS jumps, then UNH could also see price increases.