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CNC vs CVS
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Centene Corporation (CNC) vs. CVS Health Corporation (CVS) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- CNC is a managed-care specialist concentrated in government health programs, while CVS is a diversified health conglomerate spanning insurance, pharmacy benefit management, and retail pharmacy.
- Centene has delivered a sharp recovery in 2026, with shares up more than 60% year to date after a difficult 2025, driven by improving medical cost ratios and pricing discipline.
- CVS has staged a steadier, multi-quarter turnaround, posting consecutive earnings beats, raising guidance, and reaching a 52-week high on stronger Aetna (its insurance arm) performance.
- The two stocks carry different risk profiles: Centene is more exposed to Medicaid and Marketplace policy, while CVS faces reimbursement and pharmacy benefit manager (PBM) scrutiny.
- Both trade at discounted valuations relative to peers, but their growth drivers, momentum, and catalysts diverge meaningfully.
Introduction
Managed-care and healthcare-services stocks have drawn intense investor attention as the sector works through elevated medical costs and shifting reimbursement rules. This stock comparison examines CNC (Centene Corporation) and CVS (CVS Health Corporation) — two large-cap names with overlapping healthcare exposure but very different business models. Centene focuses on government-sponsored health plans, while CVS operates a vertically integrated platform combining insurance, a pharmacy benefit manager, and retail pharmacies. Traders and long-term investors weighing a margin-recovery story against a diversified turnaround will find the contrast in relative performance and market positioning instructive.
CNC Overview and Recent Performance
CNC, Centene Corporation, is one of the largest U.S. managed-care organizations, serving government-sponsored programs including Medicaid, Medicare, and Affordable Care Act (ACA) Marketplace plans. Recent weeks have extended a notable recovery for the stock, which has surged more than 60% year to date and more than 100% over the past year — a rebound from a 2025 selloff triggered when the company withdrew its earnings guidance after finding Marketplace members were costlier than expected.
Sentiment has since improved as Centene's health benefits ratio (HBR), the share of premium revenue spent on medical care, has declined, reflecting better pricing and moderating costs. Quarterly results have consistently exceeded analyst estimates, and management has raised its full-year revenue and earnings outlook several times. Membership attrition, particularly in Medicaid, remains a headwind, but investors have rewarded the company's focus on margin recovery and portfolio simplification over raw top-line growth.
CVS Overview and Recent Performance
CVS, CVS Health Corporation, is a diversified healthcare company whose businesses include Aetna health insurance, the Caremark pharmacy benefit manager (PBM), and the largest U.S. retail pharmacy chain. In recent market activity, the stock has advanced roughly 30% over the past year and touched a 52-week high, supported by consecutive quarterly earnings beats and multiple guidance raises.
A key driver has been Aetna's improving medical benefit ratio (MBR), which measures medical costs against premiums and came in well below expectations in recent quarters. Pharmacy volumes have also grown, aided by acquired Rite Aid prescription files and demand for GLP-1 (glucagon-like peptide-1) therapies used for diabetes and weight management. While Medicare Advantage reimbursement and PBM regulatory pressure remain concerns, the company's cost-cutting program and cautious guidance have helped restore investor confidence in its multi-year turnaround.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two stocks lies in their business models. Centene is a pure-play managed-care insurer concentrated in Medicaid and Marketplace plans, making its results highly sensitive to government reimbursement rates, eligibility redeterminations, and medical cost trends. CVS is a diversified healthcare conglomerate whose earnings mix spans insurance, PBM services, and retail pharmacy, providing multiple revenue streams but also broader regulatory exposure.
On recent momentum, Centene has posted the sharper rebound in relative performance, reflecting a recovery from a deeply depressed base and a fast-improving cost ratio. CVS has delivered steadier, more gradual gains, driven by broad-based segment improvement and a track record of conservative guidance beats. In terms of risk, Centene faces concentration risk tied to government programs and continued membership declines, while CVS contends with Medicare Advantage rate pressure, state-level PBM scrutiny, and thinner retail-pharmacy margins.
Both stocks trade at discounts to peers on measures such as forward earnings and price-to-sales (P/S) multiples, but their catalysts differ: Centene's case rests on sustained margin expansion, whereas CVS's hinges on executing an integrated, multi-segment turnaround.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, momentum, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward CNC in the current environment. Centene's sharper upward price trend, improving health benefits ratio, repeated guidance raises, and discounted valuation relative to peers signal a strong, well-defined recovery trajectory that quantitative models tend to favor. That said, CVS offers a more diversified earnings base and a steadier, though less explosive, turnaround. The relative edge is probabilistic rather than definitive: Centene's momentum and cost-improvement catalysts currently appear more consistent, but CVS's broader diversification may appeal to systems that prioritize stability and lower concentration risk.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CNC is a Hold and CVS is a Hold.
CNC's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CNC turned positive on October 06, 2026. Looking at past instances where CNC's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 33 of 49 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 06, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on CNC as a result. In 54 of 90 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
CNC moved above its 50-day moving average on October 09, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for CNC crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 14, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 12 of 21 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
Following a +2.40% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CNC advanced for three days, in 188 of 307 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for CNC moved out of overbought territory on October 16, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 32 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 22 of the 32 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 69%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 8 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CNC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 63%.
CNC broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 12, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for CNC entered a downward trend on October 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 5 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. CNC’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 54 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: CNC's P/B Ratio (1.514) is slightly lower than the industry average of (3.448). P/E Ratio (-6.695) is within average values for comparable stocks, (126.060). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.754) is also within normal values, averaging (0.786). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.009) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.160) is also within normal values, averaging (0.569).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 94 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. CNC’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 84, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 95 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 98 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
Momentum Indicator for CVS turns positive, indicating new upward trend
CVS saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 13, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 88 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 61 of the 88 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 69%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where CVS's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 19 of 30 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CVS just turned positive on October 06, 2026. Looking at past instances where CVS's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 31 of 51 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
CVS moved above its 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +5.75% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CVS advanced for three days, in 230 of 344 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CVS declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 61%.
CVS broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 14, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for CVS entered a downward trend on October 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 21 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: CVS's P/B Ratio (1.482) is slightly lower than the industry average of (3.448). P/E Ratio (24.178) is within average values for comparable stocks, (126.060). CVS's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.206) is slightly lower than the industry average of (0.786). CVS has a moderately high Dividend Yield (0.029) as compared to the industry average of (0.009). P/S Ratio (0.283) is also within normal values, averaging (0.569).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 30 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 47 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. CVS’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 74 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. CVS’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 84, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 81 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
CNC | CVS | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 14 | 8 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 54 Fair valued | 21 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 94 | 74 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 95 | 81 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 5 | 47 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 98 | 30 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
CVS's Valuation (21) in the Drugstore Chains industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CNC (54) in the Managed Health Care industry. This means that CVS’s stock grew somewhat faster than CNC’s over the last 12 months.
CVS's Profit vs Risk Rating (74) in the Drugstore Chains industry is in the same range as CNC (94) in the Managed Health Care industry. This means that CVS’s stock grew similarly to CNC’s over the last 12 months.
CVS's SMR Rating (81) in the Drugstore Chains industry is in the same range as CNC (95) in the Managed Health Care industry. This means that CVS’s stock grew similarly to CNC’s over the last 12 months.
CNC's Price Growth Rating (5) in the Managed Health Care industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CVS (47) in the Drugstore Chains industry. This means that CNC’s stock grew somewhat faster than CVS’s over the last 12 months.
CVS's P/E Growth Rating (30) in the Drugstore Chains industry is significantly better than the same rating for CNC (98) in the Managed Health Care industry. This means that CVS’s stock grew significantly faster than CNC’s over the last 12 months.
| CNC | CVS | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 69% | 4 days ago 63% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 68% | 4 days ago 66% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 60% | 4 days ago 69% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 67% | 4 days ago 61% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 63% | 4 days ago 63% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 63% | 4 days ago 60% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 61% | 5 days ago 67% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 19 days ago 63% | 11 days ago 61% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 63% | 4 days ago 68% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 59% | 4 days ago 59% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CNC’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while CVS’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- CNC’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- CVS’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CNC’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while CVS’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CNC’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- CVS’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
CNC (@Managed Health Care) experienced а +5.81% price change this week, while CVS (@Managed Health Care) price change was +7.20% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Managed Health Care industry was +0.20%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +3.26%, and the average quarterly price growth was +40.24%.
Reported Earning Dates
CNC is expected to report earnings on Oct 27, 2026.
CVS is expected to report earnings on Nov 04, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Managed Health Care (+0.20% weekly)Managed healthcare industry focuses on providing health/medical and disability insurance plans, generally intended to reduce the cost of for-profit health care. The insurance products might be provided through employer-paid (fully or partly) insurance and benefit programs, or through Medicare/Medicaid. Some of the largest providers of managed health care include Aetna, Humana Inc., and Cigna, and UnitedHealthcare.
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CVS and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CVS has been loosely correlated with UNH. These tickers have moved in lockstep 65% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if CVS jumps, then UNH could also see price increases.