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COP vs MUR
Which Stock Would AI Choose? ConocoPhillips (COP) vs. Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- ConocoPhillips (COP) boasts a massive market capitalization of $148 billion, dwarfing Murphy Oil Corporation's (MUR) $5.6 billion, highlighting COP's scale in the oil and gas sector.
- COP has delivered stronger year-to-date (YTD) performance at 31% compared to MUR's 26%, amid favorable oil price dynamics in recent market activity.
- Both stocks offer attractive dividends, with MUR yielding 3.46% and COP at 2.76%, but COP's forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.11 suggests better valuation relative to growth prospects.
- Recent weeks have seen COP experience some pullback from its 52-week high, while MUR maintains steady momentum ahead of its earnings release.
- Tickeron's AI tools highlight differing risk profiles, with COP's lower beta indicating greater stability in volatile energy markets.
Introduction
ConocoPhillips (COP) and Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR) are key players in the oil and gas exploration and production sector, both sensitive to crude price fluctuations and geopolitical shifts. This stock comparison analyzes their recent performance, financial metrics, and market positioning to aid investors and traders evaluating energy sector opportunities. With oil markets showing resilience amid global demand recovery, larger-scale operators like COP contrast with mid-cap focused producers like MUR, offering insights into relative strength, valuation, and growth potential in the current environment.
COP Overview and Recent Performance
ConocoPhillips (COP), a leading independent exploration and production company, operates a diversified portfolio across North America, Europe, and Asia, emphasizing low-cost assets and LNG growth. In recent market activity, COP shares have traded around $122, reflecting a robust YTD gain of 31% but a modest pullback from the 52-week high of $136 amid easing crude pressures. Key influences include high oil prices supporting cash flow and production targets, alongside cost discipline projecting $1 billion annual free cash flow improvements through 2028. Sentiment remains positive ahead of Q1 2026 earnings on April 30, with analysts forecasting EPS of $1.60 and an average price target of $139, driven by stable operations and strategic expansions like Venezuela evaluations.
MUR Overview and Recent Performance
Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR) focuses on offshore Gulf of Mexico and onshore U.S. shale plays, balancing oil and natural gas production with a commitment to shareholder returns. Shares recently hovered near $39, posting a solid YTD return of 26% within a 52-week range of $20 to $43. Performance in recent weeks has been supported by a quarterly cash dividend declaration of $0.35 per share, enhancing yield appeal, amid broader sector volatility. Key drivers include production efficiency and reserve growth, with Q1 2026 earnings slated for May 6 and analyst targets averaging $42. Elevated trailing P/E reflects cyclical earnings, but forward metrics indicate potential normalization as oil demand stabilizes.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
ConocoPhillips (COP) and Murphy Oil (MUR) share sector exposure to oil and gas production but diverge in scale and focus. COP's business model leverages global diversification and integrated operations for resilient growth, contrasting MUR's emphasis on U.S.-centric offshore and onshore assets. Recent momentum favors COP's 31% YTD surge over MUR's 26%, bolstered by superior free cash flow generation. Risk factors include commodity volatility for both, though COP's lower beta (0.19) signals stability versus MUR's 0.58. COP exhibits stronger analyst support with higher price targets, while MUR offers a higher dividend yield but trades at a premium trailing P/E. Market sentiment tilts toward COP's catalysts like LNG and cost efficiencies, positioning it for steadier relative performance amid energy transitions.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron's AI models currently lean toward ConocoPhillips (COP) over Murphy Oil (MUR), based on superior trend consistency, larger-scale stability, and upcoming production catalysts in recent market positioning. COP's robust YTD gains, favorable forward valuation, and lower volatility profile suggest higher probability of outperformance in the near term, though MUR's yield provides appeal in dividend-focused scenarios.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is COP is a Hold and MUR is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
COP’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileMUR’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- COP’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- MUR’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
COP’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MUR’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- COP’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
- MUR’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
COP (@Oil & Gas Production) experienced а -2.28% price change this week, while MUR (@Oil & Gas Production) price change was -5.57% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Oil & Gas Production industry was -1.14%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -11.52%, and the average quarterly price growth was +14.61%.
Reported Earning Dates
COP is expected to report earnings on Jul 30, 2026.
MUR is expected to report earnings on Jul 30, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Oil & Gas Production (-1.14% weekly)The oil and gas production segment includes companies that specialize in exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas. These companies are focused on upstream operations. Companies typically identify deposits, drill wells, and extract raw materials from underground. The industry also includes related services like rig operations, feasibility studies, machinery rentals etc. Several operators in this industry work with various types of contractors such as engineering procurement and construction contractors, as well as with joint-venture partners and oil field service companies. Oil and gas often involves large fixed costs of production; so, declining crude oil prices, for example, is a potential negative for this industry. Conoco Phillips, EOG Resources, Inc. and Pioneer Natural Resources Company are some examples of companies operating in this space.
| COP | MUR | COP / MUR | |
| Capitalization | 134B | 4.93B | 2,716% |
| EBITDA | 24.6B | 1.32B | 1,865% |
| Gain YTD | 18.978 | 12.270 | 155% |
| P/E Ratio | 18.59 | 58.34 | 32% |
| Revenue | 58.2B | 2.75B | 2,117% |
| Total Cash | 6.36B | 379M | 1,679% |
| Total Debt | 23.3B | 2.3B | 1,013% |
COP | MUR | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 58 | 68 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 43 Fair valued | 45 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 36 | 65 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 67 | 90 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 60 | 59 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 17 | 2 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 65 | 65 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
COP's Valuation (43) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is in the same range as MUR (45). This means that COP’s stock grew similarly to MUR’s over the last 12 months.
COP's Profit vs Risk Rating (36) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is in the same range as MUR (65). This means that COP’s stock grew similarly to MUR’s over the last 12 months.
COP's SMR Rating (67) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is in the same range as MUR (90). This means that COP’s stock grew similarly to MUR’s over the last 12 months.
MUR's Price Growth Rating (59) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is in the same range as COP (60). This means that MUR’s stock grew similarly to COP’s over the last 12 months.
MUR's P/E Growth Rating (2) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is in the same range as COP (17). This means that MUR’s stock grew similarly to COP’s over the last 12 months.
| COP | MUR | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 75% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 60% | 2 days ago 76% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 75% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 71% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 74% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 20 days ago 67% | 20 days ago 74% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 57% | 6 days ago 74% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 79% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 64% |
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MUR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MUR has been closely correlated with CHRD. These tickers have moved in lockstep 82% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MUR jumps, then CHRD could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To MUR | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MUR | 100% | +0.38% | ||
| CHRD - MUR | 82% Closely correlated | +1.06% | ||
| OVV - MUR | 80% Closely correlated | +4.22% | ||
| APA - MUR | 80% Closely correlated | +3.54% | ||
| MGY - MUR | 80% Closely correlated | +2.73% | ||
| TALO - MUR | 78% Closely correlated | +2.11% | ||
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