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COP vs MUR
Which Stock Would AI Choose? ConocoPhillips (COP) vs. Murphy Oil (MUR) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Scale vs. leverage: COP is a global exploration and production (E&P) heavyweight producing roughly 2.3 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (BOE/d), while MUR is a mid-cap operator producing about 169,000 BOE/d.
- Dividend profiles diverge: COP offers a lower yield near 2.3% but substantial scale and buybacks, whereas MUR carries a higher yield around 4% with an oil-weighted, unhedged portfolio.
- Oil-price sensitivity: Both stocks have benefited from elevated crude prices tied to Middle East supply concerns, but MUR's smaller, unhedged exposure amplifies commodity swings.
- Analyst posture: COP holds a consensus "Buy" rating, while MUR has seen a mix of price-target trims and selective upgrades in recent months.
- Risk trade-off: COP offers diversification and stability; MUR offers higher torque to oil prices and exploration catalysts but with greater execution risk.
Introduction
ConocoPhillips (COP) and Murphy Oil (MUR) sit at opposite ends of the independent energy spectrum, yet both are squarely leveraged to the same commodity cycle. This stock comparison is relevant for investors weighing a diversified, low-cost global producer against a smaller, oil-weighted name with higher upside sensitivity to crude prices. In the current environment—marked by geopolitical supply concerns, firm refining margins, and renewed focus on capital discipline—understanding how these two names differ in scale, growth drivers, and market positioning can help traders and long-term investors assess relative performance and risk-adjusted opportunity.
COP Overview and Recent Performance
ConocoPhillips is one of the world's largest independent E&P companies, with a diversified portfolio spanning the Permian Basin, Alaska, the Lower 48, Canada, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) interests in Qatar. Its scale—roughly 2.3 million BOE/d of production—gives it deep, low-cost well inventory and resilience across commodity cycles. In recent weeks, COP has traded near multi-month highs, supported by higher realized oil prices and a first-quarter earnings beat driven by rising crude. The company generated about $5.4 billion in cash from operations in the first quarter and has raised its 2026 capital budget to roughly $12–12.5 billion, reflecting incremental Permian activity. Sentiment has been further buoyed by a wave of analyst price-target increases, with a consensus "Buy" rating and an average target modestly above recent prices.
MUR Overview and Recent Performance
Murphy Oil is a mid-cap E&P focused on onshore U.S. and Canadian assets—including the Eagle Ford Shale, Tupper Montney, and Kaybob Duvernay—alongside offshore Gulf of America operations and international projects in Vietnam and Côte d'Ivoire. In recent quarters, MUR has delivered production at the upper end of guidance, supported by strong Eagle Ford well performance and high offshore facility uptime. Its oil-weighted, unhedged portfolio allowed the company to capture rising crude prices, with second-quarter realized oil prices reaching their highest level since 2022. However, sentiment has been tempered by higher exploration spending, a dry appraisal well, and a raised 2026 capital midpoint, which has contributed to a mix of analyst target reductions and selective upgrades in recent weeks.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The most obvious contrast between these two stocks is scale. COP's global footprint and multi-basin diversification provide steadier cash flow and a quality premium, reflected in a richer valuation relative to the sector. MUR's concentrated, oil-weighted model offers greater torque to crude-price moves but also exposes investors to exploration outcomes and higher execution risk, as seen with recent dry holes and a larger capital program.
On growth, COP's drivers are broad—Permian productivity, LNG project timing, and free-cash-flow inflection—while MUR's catalysts are project-specific, including the Chinook #8 well and the Lac Da Vang field in Vietnam. Risk profiles also differ: COP carries lower leverage and abundant liquidity, whereas MUR's balance sheet is adequate but thinner, with rising exploration expense. Market sentiment reflects this divergence, with COP enjoying consistent analyst support and MUR facing more mixed, target-trimming commentary despite strong earnings momentum.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, stability, catalyst quality, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward COP in the current environment. The stock's diversified cash flow, stronger consensus support, and steadier uptrend suggest more reliable momentum with lower single-event risk. MUR's higher oil leverage and exploration catalysts could produce sharper moves, but its greater execution uncertainty and mixed analyst sentiment introduce more variability. Accordingly, a probabilistic assessment would favor COP for trend stability and market positioning, while acknowledging that MUR may offer higher upside torque for investors tolerant of commodity and project-specific risk.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is COP is a Buy and MUR is a Hold.
Momentum Indicator for COP turns positive, indicating new upward trend
COP saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 05, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 89 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 66 of the 89 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 74%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for COP just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where COP's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 32 of 49 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
COP moved above its 50-day moving average on October 05, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for COP crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 12, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 14 of 19 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
Following a +3.33% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where COP advanced for three days, in 231 of 344 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 204 of 309 cases where COP Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 66%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for COP moved out of overbought territory on November 02, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 28 of the 45 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 62%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 42 of 67 cases where COP's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 63%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where COP declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 57%.
COP broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 08, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 4 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. COP’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 7 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 20 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 73, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 84 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.699) is normal, around the industry mean (3.856). P/E Ratio (19.423) is within average values for comparable stocks, (4.063). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.066) is also within normal values, averaging (1.958). Dividend Yield (0.023) settles around the average of (0.044) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.573) is also within normal values, averaging (5.980).
MUR in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on September 30, 2026
MUR moved above its 50-day moving average on September 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 40 of 49 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 82%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The 10-day moving average for MUR crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 05, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 15 of 19 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
Following a +3.23% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MUR advanced for three days, in 242 of 329 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 194 of 259 cases where MUR Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 75%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for MUR moved out of overbought territory on October 27, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 35 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 26 of the 35 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 74%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 50 of 70 cases where MUR's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 02, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on MUR as a result. In 61 of 83 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 73%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for MUR turned negative on November 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 47 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 31 of the 47 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 66%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MUR declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 73%.
MUR broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 16, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 10 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 38 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. MUR’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 73, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 63 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.095) is normal, around the industry mean (3.856). P/E Ratio (19.495) is within average values for comparable stocks, (4.063). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.328) is also within normal values, averaging (1.958). Dividend Yield (0.035) settles around the average of (0.044) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.849) is also within normal values, averaging (5.980).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 81 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
COP | MUR | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 34 | 84 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 84 Overvalued | 63 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 20 | 59 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 59 | 81 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 4 | 38 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 7 | 10 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 65 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MUR's Valuation (63) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is in the same range as COP (84). This means that MUR’s stock grew similarly to COP’s over the last 12 months.
COP's Profit vs Risk Rating (20) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is somewhat better than the same rating for MUR (59). This means that COP’s stock grew somewhat faster than MUR’s over the last 12 months.
COP's SMR Rating (59) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is in the same range as MUR (81). This means that COP’s stock grew similarly to MUR’s over the last 12 months.
COP's Price Growth Rating (4) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is somewhat better than the same rating for MUR (38). This means that COP’s stock grew somewhat faster than MUR’s over the last 12 months.
COP's P/E Growth Rating (7) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is in the same range as MUR (10). This means that COP’s stock grew similarly to MUR’s over the last 12 months.
| COP | MUR | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 1 day ago 74% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 71% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 74% | 1 day ago 73% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 66% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 57% | 1 day ago 70% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 66% | 1 day ago 73% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 67% | 14 days ago 74% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 12 days ago 57% | 5 days ago 73% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 62% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 66% | 1 day ago 75% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
COP’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green while MUR’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- COP’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- MUR’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
COP’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MUR’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- COP’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- MUR’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
COP (@Oil & Gas Production) experienced а -2.99% price change this week, while MUR (@Oil & Gas Production) price change was -9.18% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Oil & Gas Production industry was -6.06%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +1.59%, and the average quarterly price growth was -2.41%.
Reported Earning Dates
COP is expected to report earnings on Nov 05, 2026.
MUR is expected to report earnings on Nov 04, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Oil & Gas Production (-6.06% weekly)The oil and gas production segment includes companies that specialize in exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas. These companies are focused on upstream operations. Companies typically identify deposits, drill wells, and extract raw materials from underground. The industry also includes related services like rig operations, feasibility studies, machinery rentals etc. Several operators in this industry work with various types of contractors such as engineering procurement and construction contractors, as well as with joint-venture partners and oil field service companies. Oil and gas often involves large fixed costs of production; so, declining crude oil prices, for example, is a potential negative for this industry. Conoco Phillips, EOG Resources, Inc. and Pioneer Natural Resources Company are some examples of companies operating in this space.
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MUR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MUR has been closely correlated with CHRD. These tickers have moved in lockstep 79% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MUR jumps, then CHRD could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To MUR | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MUR | 100% | -8.62% | ||
| CHRD - MUR | 79% Closely correlated | -6.12% | ||
| APA - MUR | 78% Closely correlated | -7.57% | ||
| TALO - MUR | 76% Closely correlated | -9.71% | ||
| OVV - MUR | 75% Closely correlated | -6.66% | ||
| COP - MUR | 75% Closely correlated | -4.67% | ||
More | ||||
| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| LVHD | 45.74 | 0.49 | +1.08% |
| Franklin U.S. Low Volatility High Dividend Index ETF (LVHD) | |||
| AFSC | 36.54 | 0.12 | +0.34% |
| abrdn Focused U.S. Small Cap Active ETF (AFSC) | |||
| JAVA | 83.23 | 0.27 | +0.33% |
| JPMorgan Active Value ETF (JAVA) | |||
| CSIO | 28.58 | -0.03 | -0.11% |
| Cohen & Steers Infrastructure Opportunities Active ETF (CSIO) | |||
| AAOX | 3.04 | -0.76 | -20.00% |
| Tradr 2X Long AAOI Daily ETF (AAOX) | |||