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COP vs MUR
Which Stock Would AI Choose? ConocoPhillips (COP) vs. Murphy Oil (MUR) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- ConocoPhillips (COP) and Murphy Oil (MUR) are both upstream oil and gas exploration and production companies, with COP representing a larger, more diversified operator and MUR a smaller, focused player in the sector.
- In recent market activity, COP has shown YTD returns around 15-20% while MUR posted YTD returns near 12-13%, though MUR delivered stronger 1-year performance exceeding 39% compared to COP's approximately 19%.
- Both stocks have been influenced by broader oil price dynamics and sector sentiment, with COP reporting Q1 2026 adjusted earnings per share of $1.89 and MUR reporting Q1 2026 EPS of $0.32 that beat estimates.
- COP benefits from greater scale and geographic diversification, while MUR offers higher beta exposure to commodity price movements and potential for outsized gains in favorable conditions.
- Relative performance highlights trade-offs between stability and growth potential within the energy exploration and production (E&P) space amid fluctuating energy markets.
Introduction
ConocoPhillips (COP) and Murphy Oil (MUR) operate in the upstream energy sector, making them relevant benchmarks for investors seeking exposure to oil and natural gas exploration and production. This comparison examines their business profiles, recent performance trends, and market positioning to assist portfolio managers, sector specialists, and individual traders evaluating energy allocations. The analysis draws on verifiable financial metrics and developments from recent weeks to provide a balanced view of relative strengths in the current environment.
COP Overview and Recent Performance
ConocoPhillips (COP) is one of the world's largest independent exploration and production companies, with operations spanning multiple continents and a focus on conventional and unconventional resources. In recent market activity, the stock has traded in a range influenced by oil price volatility and broader energy sector rotations, posting year-to-date returns of approximately 15-20%. First-quarter 2026 results, released in late April, showed adjusted earnings per share of $1.89, supported by operational efficiency despite year-over-year declines in net income. Recent weeks have seen modest price fluctuations as investors assessed commodity outlooks and company execution, contributing to sentiment that emphasizes COP's scale and cash flow generation capabilities.
MUR Overview and Recent Performance
Murphy Oil (MUR) is an independent exploration and production company with assets primarily in the Gulf of Mexico and onshore U.S. basins. The stock has experienced notable 1-year returns exceeding 39% amid commodity price movements, though year-to-date performance stands near 12-13%. First-quarter 2026 earnings per share of $0.32 exceeded consensus estimates, reflecting solid operational delivery. In recent market activity, MUR has shown sensitivity to energy price swings, with upcoming second-quarter results scheduled for early August providing a near-term catalyst. Performance reflects MUR's higher operational leverage within the exploration and production space.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
ConocoPhillips (COP) operates with greater scale and geographic diversification than Murphy Oil (MUR), providing broader exposure to global energy basins and more stable production profiles. MUR, by contrast, maintains a more concentrated asset base that can amplify returns during commodity upswings but introduces higher volatility. Recent momentum has favored MUR on a 1-year basis, while COP has delivered steadier year-to-date results amid sector headwinds. Risk factors include commodity price sensitivity for both, though COP's larger market capitalization and diversified revenue streams may offer relative resilience. Sector exposure remains aligned in upstream exploration and production, yet market sentiment has differentiated the names based on earnings consistency and reserve replacement metrics in recent periods.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors including trend consistency and relative positioning in recent market activity, Tickeron's AI models would currently assign a modestly higher probability of favorable risk-adjusted outcomes to ConocoPhillips (COP) due to its scale advantages and steadier performance profile compared with Murphy Oil (MUR). This assessment remains probabilistic and subject to shifts in energy fundamentals or company-specific developments.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is COP is a Hold and MUR is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
COP’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileMUR’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- COP’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- MUR’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
COP’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MUR’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- COP’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- MUR’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
COP (@Oil & Gas Production) experienced а +3.16% price change this week, while MUR (@Oil & Gas Production) price change was +6.36% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Oil & Gas Production industry was +2.83%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -4.61%, and the average quarterly price growth was +12.36%.
Reported Earning Dates
COP is expected to report earnings on Aug 06, 2026.
MUR is expected to report earnings on Aug 05, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Oil & Gas Production (+2.83% weekly)The oil and gas production segment includes companies that specialize in exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas. These companies are focused on upstream operations. Companies typically identify deposits, drill wells, and extract raw materials from underground. The industry also includes related services like rig operations, feasibility studies, machinery rentals etc. Several operators in this industry work with various types of contractors such as engineering procurement and construction contractors, as well as with joint-venture partners and oil field service companies. Oil and gas often involves large fixed costs of production; so, declining crude oil prices, for example, is a potential negative for this industry. Conoco Phillips, EOG Resources, Inc. and Pioneer Natural Resources Company are some examples of companies operating in this space.
| COP | MUR | COP / MUR | |
| Capitalization | 136B | 5.01B | 2,713% |
| EBITDA | 24.6B | 1.32B | 1,865% |
| Gain YTD | 21.332 | 14.063 | 152% |
| P/E Ratio | 18.96 | 59.27 | 32% |
| Revenue | 58.2B | 2.75B | 2,117% |
| Total Cash | 6.36B | 379M | 1,679% |
| Total Debt | 23.3B | 2.3B | 1,013% |
COP | MUR | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 55 | 58 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 44 Fair valued | 57 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 37 | 67 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 67 | 90 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 51 | 57 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 15 | 2 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
COP's Valuation (44) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is in the same range as MUR (57). This means that COP’s stock grew similarly to MUR’s over the last 12 months.
COP's Profit vs Risk Rating (37) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is in the same range as MUR (67). This means that COP’s stock grew similarly to MUR’s over the last 12 months.
COP's SMR Rating (67) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is in the same range as MUR (90). This means that COP’s stock grew similarly to MUR’s over the last 12 months.
COP's Price Growth Rating (51) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is in the same range as MUR (57). This means that COP’s stock grew similarly to MUR’s over the last 12 months.
MUR's P/E Growth Rating (2) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is in the same range as COP (15). This means that MUR’s stock grew similarly to COP’s over the last 12 months.
| COP | MUR | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 75% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 70% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 75% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 57% | 1 day ago 74% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 76% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 57% | 1 day ago 74% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 1 day ago 73% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 14 days ago 58% | 14 days ago 74% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 1 day ago 76% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 61% | 1 day ago 65% |
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COP and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, COP has been closely correlated with EOG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 85% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if COP jumps, then EOG could also see price increases.
MUR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MUR has been closely correlated with CHRD. These tickers have moved in lockstep 81% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MUR jumps, then CHRD could also see price increases.