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COP vs OXY
Which Stock Would AI Choose? ConocoPhillips (COP) vs. Occidental Petroleum (OXY) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- COP boasts a larger market capitalization of approximately $150 billion compared to OXY's $58 billion, offering greater scale in exploration and production.
- Year-to-date, OXY has outperformed with a 43% gain versus COP's 32%, driven by energy sector momentum.
- COP trades at a lower price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of about 21 versus OXY's 43, alongside a higher dividend yield of 2.7% compared to 1.8%.
- Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have spiked oil prices, benefiting both but introducing volatility, with COP cutting production guidance.
- OXY benefits from Berkshire Hathaway's significant stake, while COP emphasizes disciplined capital allocation.
- Tickeron's AI tools highlight relative strengths in trend consistency and valuation for energy sector positioning.
Introduction
ConocoPhillips (COP) and Occidental Petroleum (OXY) are prominent players in the oil and gas exploration and production (E&P) sector, both navigating a volatile energy market shaped by geopolitical tensions and fluctuating crude prices. This stock comparison evaluates their business models, recent performance, and market positioning amid rising oil benchmarks like Brent crude. Traders seeking short-term momentum and long-term investors focused on dividends or growth catalysts will find insights into relative strengths, such as valuation metrics and operational resilience, to inform sector allocation decisions in the current environment.
COP Overview and Recent Performance
ConocoPhillips (COP) is a leading independent E&P company with low-cost assets in key basins like the Permian and Alaska's North Slope. In recent market activity, its shares have shown resilience with year-to-date gains around 33%, though facing pullbacks amid broader energy sector volatility. Q1 2026 earnings reported net income of $2.2 billion, down 21% year-over-year due to lower production and prices, but adjusted earnings per share of $1.89 beat expectations. The company trimmed full-year production guidance to 2.3-2.33 million barrels per day, excluding Qatar operations disrupted by Middle East tensions, while highlighting progress on LNG projects and the Willow development. Sentiment reflects optimism from analysts' overweight ratings and a $140 average price target, supported by strong cash flows despite oil price swings.
OXY Overview and Recent Performance
Occidental Petroleum (OXY) focuses on upstream operations with significant Permian exposure and a chemical segment recently divested. Shares have delivered robust year-to-date returns of about 43%, outperforming peers amid energy rallies, though recent sessions saw declines tied to oil volatility. Key developments include a CEO transition, with Vicki Hollub set to retire June 1, 2026, and COO Richard Jackson assuming the role, signaling continuity in strategy. Berkshire Hathaway's substantial stake provides tailwinds, bolstering investor confidence amid geopolitical risks elevating crude prices. Operational cash flows remain solid, though higher PE ratios reflect growth expectations in a high-volatility backdrop.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Both COP and OXY are upstream-focused E&P firms with heavy Permian reliance, but COP's pure-play model and larger scale provide diversification across global basins versus OXY's U.S.-centric assets. Growth drivers differ: COP advances LNG and Willow projects for long-term output, while OXY leverages Buffett-backed debt reduction. Recent momentum favors OXY's superior YTD gains, but COP exhibits lower volatility. Risk factors include geopolitical oil shocks for both, with OXY facing leadership transition uncertainties and higher leverage historically. Sector exposure is similar in crude sensitivity, yet COP's superior valuation and dividend edge contrasts OXY's sentiment boost from institutional ownership.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron's AI currently leans toward COP for its favorable valuation (lower PE ratio), higher dividend yield, and operational stability amid volatility, positioning it better for trend consistency and downside protection. While OXY shows stronger recent momentum and Berkshire support as catalysts, its elevated multiples introduce relative risks. This probabilistic edge favors COP in the near-term energy landscape.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is COP is a Hold and OXY is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
COP’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileOXY’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- COP’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- OXY’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
COP’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while OXY’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- COP’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
- OXY’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
COP (@Oil & Gas Production) experienced а -2.28% price change this week, while OXY (@Oil & Gas Production) price change was -4.52% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Oil & Gas Production industry was -1.14%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -11.52%, and the average quarterly price growth was +14.61%.
Reported Earning Dates
COP is expected to report earnings on Jul 30, 2026.
OXY is expected to report earnings on Aug 04, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Oil & Gas Production (-1.14% weekly)The oil and gas production segment includes companies that specialize in exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas. These companies are focused on upstream operations. Companies typically identify deposits, drill wells, and extract raw materials from underground. The industry also includes related services like rig operations, feasibility studies, machinery rentals etc. Several operators in this industry work with various types of contractors such as engineering procurement and construction contractors, as well as with joint-venture partners and oil field service companies. Oil and gas often involves large fixed costs of production; so, declining crude oil prices, for example, is a potential negative for this industry. Conoco Phillips, EOG Resources, Inc. and Pioneer Natural Resources Company are some examples of companies operating in this space.
| COP | OXY | COP / OXY | |
| Capitalization | 134B | 51.9B | 258% |
| EBITDA | 24.6B | 11B | 224% |
| Gain YTD | 18.978 | 27.647 | 69% |
| P/E Ratio | 18.59 | 70.27 | 26% |
| Revenue | 58.2B | 21.1B | 276% |
| Total Cash | 6.36B | N/A | - |
| Total Debt | 23.3B | 16.6B | 140% |
COP | OXY | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 58 | 58 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 43 Fair valued | 80 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 36 | 56 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 67 | 61 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 60 | 59 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 17 | 4 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 65 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
COP's Valuation (43) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is somewhat better than the same rating for OXY (80). This means that COP’s stock grew somewhat faster than OXY’s over the last 12 months.
COP's Profit vs Risk Rating (36) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is in the same range as OXY (56). This means that COP’s stock grew similarly to OXY’s over the last 12 months.
OXY's SMR Rating (61) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is in the same range as COP (67). This means that OXY’s stock grew similarly to COP’s over the last 12 months.
OXY's Price Growth Rating (59) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is in the same range as COP (60). This means that OXY’s stock grew similarly to COP’s over the last 12 months.
OXY's P/E Growth Rating (4) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is in the same range as COP (17). This means that OXY’s stock grew similarly to COP’s over the last 12 months.
| COP | OXY | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 79% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 65% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 60% | 2 days ago 77% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 56% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 64% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 63% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 20 days ago 67% | 21 days ago 69% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 57% | 6 days ago 67% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 76% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 58% |
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COP and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, COP has been closely correlated with EOG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 85% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if COP jumps, then EOG could also see price increases.
OXY and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, OXY has been closely correlated with APA. These tickers have moved in lockstep 85% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if OXY jumps, then APA could also see price increases.