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COP vs OXY
Which Stock Would AI Choose? ConocoPhillips (COP) vs. Occidental Petroleum (OXY) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- COP offers larger scale and geographic diversification as a major integrated energy producer, supporting more consistent free cash flow generation compared to OXY.
- OXY has delivered stronger year-to-date returns amid operational beats and debt reduction, though it carries higher leverage relative to its peer.
- Both companies operate in the upstream oil and gas sector and have benefited from recent oil price movements driven by geopolitical factors in recent weeks.
- COP maintains a larger market capitalization and lower debt profile, providing greater financial flexibility during commodity price fluctuations.
- Recent earnings from both firms highlight production strength, with OXY reporting notable adjusted earnings per share beats in its latest quarter.
- Analyst sentiment remains generally constructive for both, with ongoing focus on capital discipline and shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks.
Introduction
ConocoPhillips (COP) and Occidental Petroleum (OXY) represent two leading players in the upstream energy sector, making their comparison relevant for investors seeking exposure to oil and gas production amid evolving commodity markets. This analysis examines their business models, recent performance trends, and relative positioning to assist portfolio managers and individual traders evaluating energy allocations. The review focuses on verifiable developments from recent market activity while providing broader context suitable for longer-term reference. Readers interested in sector rotation, dividend strategies, or risk-adjusted returns within energy will find the contrasts particularly informative.
COP Overview and Recent Performance
ConocoPhillips is a major integrated energy company engaged in exploration, production, and related activities across multiple continents. In recent weeks, its shares have shown resilience amid volatile oil prices influenced by geopolitical developments, closing near $110.72 on July 8 with a daily gain. Year-to-date performance reflects gains in the mid-teens percentage range, supported by solid first-quarter 2026 results that included adjusted earnings per share of $1.89 and maintained production guidance. The company continues to emphasize capital discipline and shareholder returns, including a quarterly dividend of $0.84 per share. Recent market activity has featured some price target adjustments from analysts alongside broader sector movements, with the stock trading above key moving averages in certain periods.
OXY Overview and Recent Performance
Occidental Petroleum focuses on oil and gas exploration and production, primarily in the United States, with additional interests in chemicals and midstream. Recent performance has included notable share price gains, with the stock trading around the $51-$53 range and posting year-to-date returns near 30%. The company reported first-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings per share of $1.06, exceeding expectations, alongside production levels that met or exceeded guidance and progress on debt reduction to approximately $13.3 billion. Analyst upgrades have contributed to sentiment in recent market activity, while the firm maintains its dividend and operational focus amid fluctuating crude prices.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
ConocoPhillips operates with greater global diversification and scale, resulting in a larger market capitalization and typically lower leverage than Occidental Petroleum. In contrast, OXY has emphasized domestic assets and recent debt management, contributing to stronger year-to-date momentum in certain periods. Both firms face similar sector exposure to crude oil prices and regulatory factors, yet COP’s broader asset base may offer more stability during downturns. Recent performance shows trade-offs: OXY recorded higher relative gains amid earnings beats, while COP demonstrates consistent dividend coverage and free cash flow characteristics. Market sentiment reflects ongoing analyst attention to production efficiency and capital returns for each.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, balance sheet stability, and relative positioning in recent market activity, Tickeron’s AI models would currently assign a modestly higher probability of favor to COP for investors prioritizing resilience, though OXY shows competitive momentum that could narrow the gap depending on oil price trajectories.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is COP is a Buy and OXY is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
COP’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileOXY’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- COP’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- OXY’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
COP’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while OXY’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- COP’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
- OXY’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
COP (@Oil & Gas Production) experienced а +8.95% price change this week, while OXY (@Oil & Gas Production) price change was +12.29% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Oil & Gas Production industry was +6.37%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -4.08%, and the average quarterly price growth was +10.65%.
Reported Earning Dates
COP is expected to report earnings on Aug 06, 2026.
OXY is expected to report earnings on Aug 05, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Oil & Gas Production (+6.37% weekly)The oil and gas production segment includes companies that specialize in exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas. These companies are focused on upstream operations. Companies typically identify deposits, drill wells, and extract raw materials from underground. The industry also includes related services like rig operations, feasibility studies, machinery rentals etc. Several operators in this industry work with various types of contractors such as engineering procurement and construction contractors, as well as with joint-venture partners and oil field service companies. Oil and gas often involves large fixed costs of production; so, declining crude oil prices, for example, is a potential negative for this industry. Conoco Phillips, EOG Resources, Inc. and Pioneer Natural Resources Company are some examples of companies operating in this space.
| COP | OXY | COP / OXY | |
| Capitalization | 137B | 54.5B | 251% |
| EBITDA | 24.6B | 11B | 224% |
| Gain YTD | 22.394 | 34.544 | 65% |
| P/E Ratio | 19.13 | 74.07 | 26% |
| Revenue | 58.2B | 21.1B | 276% |
| Total Cash | 6.36B | N/A | - |
| Total Debt | 23.3B | 16.6B | 140% |
COP | OXY | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 44 Fair valued | 81 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 38 | 59 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 67 | 61 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 58 | 53 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 17 | 4 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
COP's Valuation (44) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is somewhat better than the same rating for OXY (81). This means that COP’s stock grew somewhat faster than OXY’s over the last 12 months.
COP's Profit vs Risk Rating (38) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is in the same range as OXY (59). This means that COP’s stock grew similarly to OXY’s over the last 12 months.
OXY's SMR Rating (61) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is in the same range as COP (67). This means that OXY’s stock grew similarly to COP’s over the last 12 months.
OXY's Price Growth Rating (53) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is in the same range as COP (58). This means that OXY’s stock grew similarly to COP’s over the last 12 months.
OXY's P/E Growth Rating (4) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is in the same range as COP (17). This means that OXY’s stock grew similarly to COP’s over the last 12 months.
| COP | OXY | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 62% | 4 days ago 81% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 69% | 4 days ago 73% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 71% | 4 days ago 68% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 62% | 4 days ago 73% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 65% | 4 days ago 69% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 57% | 4 days ago 62% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 66% | 6 days ago 68% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 13 days ago 58% | 13 days ago 67% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 61% | 4 days ago 55% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 62% | 4 days ago 58% |
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COP and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, COP has been closely correlated with EOG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 85% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if COP jumps, then EOG could also see price increases.