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CRM vs GWRE
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Salesforce (CRM) vs. Guidewire Software (GWRE) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- CRM is a large-cap enterprise software leader with a market capitalization near $200 billion, while GWRE is a mid-cap vertical software provider valued around $13 billion.
- Salesforce is regaining momentum through its Agentforce AI platform, with AI-related annual recurring revenue scaling rapidly, whereas Guidewire is riding a multi-year cloud migration of property and casualty insurers.
- Guidewire has grown revenue at a faster percentage rate, but Salesforce generates far greater absolute revenue, profitability, and free cash flow.
- GWRE trades at a substantially higher valuation multiple (price-to-earnings ratio) and has pulled back sharply in 2026 despite earnings beats.
- Relative performance has favored CRM in recent months, supported by AI monetization and a share-buyback program.
Introduction
Salesforce and Guidewire Software operate in different corners of the software industry, yet both are navigating the same thematic shift: the rise of artificial intelligence and the move to cloud-based platforms. Salesforce is the world's dominant customer relationship management (CRM) provider, while Guidewire is the leading platform for property and casualty (P&C) insurers. This stock comparison is relevant to traders and investors weighing a large-cap, diversified software franchise against a faster-growing, higher-valuation vertical specialist. Understanding how each company's business model, growth drivers, and market positioning differ can help clarify which profile better fits a given portfolio or trading strategy in the current environment.
CRM Overview and Recent Performance
Salesforce, Inc. (CRM) is the world's largest CRM software company, selling subscription-based cloud products for sales, service, marketing, commerce, and data integration, alongside the Slack collaboration platform. In recent weeks, investor attention has centered on Agentforce, its autonomous AI agent platform. Salesforce has reported that Agentforce annual recurring revenue (ARR) climbed to roughly $1.5 billion in its most recent quarter, up more than 200% year over year, while its combined AI and data ARR approached $4 billion.
The company has also announced a partnership with AI developer Anthropic (referred to by management as "Claudeforce") and raised its full-year revenue guidance. Against this backdrop, CRM stock has rebounded meaningfully from its 52-week low after a challenging stretch earlier in the year, though its one-year return remains roughly flat. Solid profitability, a non-GAAP operating margin near the mid-30s, a $50 billion share repurchase authorization, and a modest dividend have reinforced sentiment, even as investors continue to debate whether AI will ultimately expand or compress Salesforce's per-seat pricing model.
GWRE Overview and Recent Performance
Guidewire Software, Inc. (GWRE) provides a technology platform that helps property and casualty insurers run their core operations, including policy, claims, and billing systems, increasingly delivered through the cloud. The company has been transitioning customers from on-premises licenses to subscription-based cloud services, which has accelerated top-line growth. In its most recent fiscal year, Guidewire reported total revenue of roughly $1.47 billion, up about 23% year over year, with subscription revenue growing in the low-to-mid 30% range and ARR reaching approximately $1.24 billion, up about 19%.
Guidewire has also expanded into AI-adjacent offerings such as ProNavigator and PricingCenter, and management has pointed to low customer churn as a sign of platform stickiness. Despite consistently beating earnings expectations, the stock has sold off sharply during 2026, pulling back more than 25% year to date from elevated levels. This divergence between strong fundamentals and weak price action reflects concerns about a premium valuation, insider selling, and a broader rotation in software, rather than any deterioration in Guidewire's underlying business metrics.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The most fundamental contrast between these two companies is scale and diversification. Salesforce serves a broad range of industries with a wide product portfolio, producing tens of billions in annual revenue and strong free cash flow. Guidewire is a focused vertical platform whose entire business depends on the property and casualty insurance sector, making it more exposed to that industry's technology spending cycle but also more deeply embedded in its customers' operations.
Growth profiles differ as well. Guidewire's percentage revenue growth and ARR expansion are faster, driven by cloud conversions, but its earnings base is much smaller and its valuation richer, with a price-to-earnings ratio well above Salesforce's. Salesforce, by contrast, offers slower but more mature growth paired with higher margins, a buyback program, and a dividend. On market sentiment, CRM has benefited recently from AI monetization momentum, while GWRE has lagged despite strong results, a sign that valuation and positioning have weighed on its relative performance. Risk factors also diverge: Salesforce faces competitive pressure from Microsoft and questions about AI's impact on seat-based pricing, whereas Guidewire carries execution risk tied to its cloud migration and a concentrated customer base.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, stability, catalysts, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward CRM in the current environment. Salesforce combines accelerating AI-driven ARR with a large, liquid franchise, robust free cash flow, shareholder returns, and a stock price that has been reclaiming upward momentum after a prolonged consolidation. Guidewire's fundamentals remain strong, but its steep drawdown, premium valuation, and elevated volatility suggest a less consistent trend profile at present. These signals are probabilistic rather than definitive, and the relative ranking could shift as new earnings data and market conditions emerge.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CRM is a Hold and GWRE is a Buy.
CRM's Indicator enters downward trend
The Aroon Indicator for CRM entered a downward trend on October 19, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 237 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In 197 of the 237 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at 83%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 29, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on CRM as a result. In 59 of 84 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 70%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for CRM turned negative on October 29, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 48 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 35 of the 48 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 73%.
CRM moved below its 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for CRM crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on November 03, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 9 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 53%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CRM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 68%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where CRM's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 24 of 34 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 6 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +3.88% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CRM advanced for three days, in 222 of 324 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
CRM may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CRM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 48 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 69 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.582) is normal, around the industry mean (-1.906). P/E Ratio (19.529) is within average values for comparable stocks, (9.554). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.759) is also within normal values, averaging (2.824). Dividend Yield (0.008) settles around the average of (0.069) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.107) is also within normal values, averaging (70.383).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 87 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. CRM’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 94, placing this stock worse than average.
GWRE's Stochastic Oscillator stays in oversold zone for 7 days
The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an uptrend is expected.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The 10-day moving average for GWRE crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 19, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 9 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
Following a +8.72% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where GWRE advanced for three days, in 220 of 317 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 162 of 221 cases where GWRE Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 73%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for GWRE moved out of overbought territory on October 26, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 44 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 28 of the 44 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 64%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 29, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on GWRE as a result. In 42 of 75 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 56%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for GWRE turned negative on October 29, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 23 of the 45 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 51%.
GWRE moved below its 50-day moving average on November 06, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where GWRE declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 66%.
GWRE broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 57 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. GWRE’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 68 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly better than average sales and a considerably profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 80 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. GWRE’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 94, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 92 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (11.087) is normal, around the industry mean (-1.906). P/E Ratio (97.824) is within average values for comparable stocks, (9.554). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.948) is also within normal values, averaging (2.824). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.069) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (8.496) is also within normal values, averaging (70.383).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 94 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
CRM | GWRE | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 69 | 63 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 69 Overvalued | 92 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 80 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 48 | 68 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 48 | 57 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 87 | 94 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 48 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
CRM's Valuation (69) in the Packaged Software industry is in the same range as GWRE (92) in the Information Technology Services industry. This means that CRM’s stock grew similarly to GWRE’s over the last 12 months.
GWRE's Profit vs Risk Rating (80) in the Information Technology Services industry is in the same range as CRM (100) in the Packaged Software industry. This means that GWRE’s stock grew similarly to CRM’s over the last 12 months.
CRM's SMR Rating (48) in the Packaged Software industry is in the same range as GWRE (68) in the Information Technology Services industry. This means that CRM’s stock grew similarly to GWRE’s over the last 12 months.
CRM's Price Growth Rating (48) in the Packaged Software industry is in the same range as GWRE (57) in the Information Technology Services industry. This means that CRM’s stock grew similarly to GWRE’s over the last 12 months.
CRM's P/E Growth Rating (87) in the Packaged Software industry is in the same range as GWRE (94) in the Information Technology Services industry. This means that CRM’s stock grew similarly to GWRE’s over the last 12 months.
| CRM | GWRE | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 64% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 74% | 1 day ago 78% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 70% | 1 day ago 56% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 73% | 1 day ago 51% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 69% | 1 day ago 67% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 71% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 29 days ago 69% | 22 days ago 69% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 68% | 1 day ago 66% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 68% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 83% | 1 day ago 73% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CRM’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while GWRE’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- CRM’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- GWRE’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CRM’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while GWRE’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CRM’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- GWRE’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
CRM (@Packaged Software) experienced а -4.97% price change this week, while GWRE (@Packaged Software) price change was -0.98% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Packaged Software industry was -0.28%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -5.06%, and the average quarterly price growth was +4.18%.
Reported Earning Dates
CRM is expected to report earnings on Dec 02, 2026.
GWRE is expected to report earnings on Dec 02, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Packaged Software (-0.28% weekly)Packaged software comprises multiple software programs bundled together and sold as a group. For example, Microsoft Office includes multiple applications such as Excel, Word, and PowerPoint. In some cases, buying a bundled product is cheaper than purchasing each item individually[s20] . Microsoft Corporation, Oracle Corp. and Adobe are some major American packaged software makers.
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CRM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CRM has been closely correlated with HUBS. These tickers have moved in lockstep 76% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if CRM jumps, then HUBS could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To CRM | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRM | 100% | +0.60% | ||
| HUBS - CRM | 76% Closely correlated | +2.65% | ||
| ADBE - CRM | 76% Closely correlated | -0.83% | ||
| WDAY - CRM | 75% Closely correlated | -1.39% | ||
| NOW - CRM | 73% Closely correlated | +0.77% | ||
| FRSH - CRM | 71% Closely correlated | -0.83% | ||
More | ||||
GWRE and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, GWRE has been closely correlated with ASAN. These tickers have moved in lockstep 71% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if GWRE jumps, then ASAN could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To GWRE | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GWRE | 100% | -0.35% | ||
| ASAN - GWRE | 71% Closely correlated | -5.56% | ||
| ADSK - GWRE | 70% Closely correlated | +0.62% | ||
| ADBE - GWRE | 68% Closely correlated | -0.83% | ||
| CRM - GWRE | 67% Closely correlated | +0.60% | ||
| PCOR - GWRE | 65% Loosely correlated | +1.50% | ||
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