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DLTR vs TGT
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Dollar Tree (DLTR) vs. Target (TGT) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Dollar Tree (DLTR) is executing a multi-price-point rollout and has raised its full-year earnings outlook, but shares have pulled back sharply in recent weeks on margin concerns.
- Target (TGT) is in the early stages of a traffic-driven turnaround under new leadership and has been one of 2026's strongest retail performers.
- Both retailers benefited from one-time tariff refunds, though neither can rely on those refunds for durable profit growth.
- DLTR trades at a materially lower forward earnings multiple, while TGT offers a Dividend King track record with 55 consecutive years of payout increases.
- Sentiment is diverging: TGT's momentum is strong, while DLTR faces execution and cost pressures despite improving operations.
Introduction
Dollar Tree and Target occupy different corners of the U.S. discount-retail landscape, yet both compete for the same cost-conscious consumer. Dollar Tree is a pure value retailer focused on a low-price, treasure-hunt model, while Target is a mass-merchandise chain blending discretionary style with everyday essentials. This stock comparison is relevant for investors weighing a deep-value turnaround play against a higher-momentum recovery story. Because the two names have moved in opposite directions recently—Target surging while Dollar Tree has pulled back—comparing their relative performance, market positioning, and risk profiles helps clarify which setup may align better with a given investment objective.
DLTR Overview and Recent Performance
DLTR, the ticker for Dollar Tree, Inc., operates roughly 9,300 stores across the United States and Canada under the Dollar Tree banner. The company has pivoted aggressively away from its historic single-price-point model, expanding multi-price merchandise that now represents about 17% of sales. It also completed the sale of its Family Dollar business in 2025, simplifying its structure and redirecting capital toward buybacks.
In recent market activity, Dollar Tree's fundamentals have improved: comparable-store sales rose 3.7% in its most recent quarter, and management raised fiscal-year adjusted earnings guidance. However, shares have fallen sharply over the past several weeks, pressured by concerns that one-time tariff refunds flattered margins and that planned reinvestment, higher fuel costs, and a heavier mix of lower-margin consumables could restrain profitability. The stock trades near a lower forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, reflecting market skepticism about the durability of the earnings recovery.
TGT Overview and Recent Performance
TGT, the ticker for Target Corporation, is a national big-box retailer known for its "cheap chic" positioning and a diversified mix of apparel, home goods, and essentials. Under a new chief executive installed in early 2026, Target has prioritized merchandising authority, store experience, technology, and a roughly $2 billion reinvestment program aimed at rebuilding foot traffic.
That strategy has produced visible results. Comparable sales turned positive after a run of declines, rising 5.6% in one recent quarter and 3.8% in the next, with store traffic—not higher ticket sizes—driving the gains. Target raised its full-year sales and earnings outlook, and analysts have responded with upgrades, including an HSBC move to Buy with a higher price target. Shares are up more than 60% year to date, and the company extended its dividend increase streak to 55 consecutive years, though the rally has compressed its dividend yield to roughly 3%.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies differ fundamentally in business model. Dollar Tree is a high-store-count value retailer competing primarily on price and impulse purchases, with a narrower assortment and thinner brand premium. Target is a larger, higher-revenue operator blending discretionary categories with a growing advertising and marketplace business, giving it more diversified growth drivers.
Momentum is the clearest contrast. Target's relative performance has been exceptional, with a traffic-led recovery and consecutive analyst upgrades, while Dollar Tree's recent stock decline has occurred despite improving same-store sales and higher guidance. Growth drivers also differ: Target leans on store experience, digital membership, and advertising, while Dollar Tree relies on multi-price rollout and store-condition improvements.
Risk profiles diverge as well. Dollar Tree faces sensitivity to low-income consumer spending, fuel and freight costs, and margin mix. Target, after a steep rally, carries valuation risk and exposure to a more promotional retail environment as rivals cut prices. Both carry tariff-related uncertainties and broad consumer-discretionary cyclicality.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely favor Target at present. The retailer's trend is more consistent, with rising traffic, positive comparable sales, upward earnings revisions, and strengthening analyst sentiment reinforcing a durable momentum profile. Dollar Tree shows improving fundamentals but a less stable trend, with recent price weakness and margin reinvestment creating near-term uncertainty. A probabilistic, data-driven framework would therefore assign higher conviction to Target's positioning, while recognizing that Dollar Tree's lower valuation and multi-price opportunity present a contrasting setup for investors comfortable with execution risk.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is DLTR is a Hold and TGT is a Hold.
DLTR in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026
DLTR moved above its 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 23 of 27 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 85%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where DLTR's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 23 of 30 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on September 29, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on DLTR as a result. In 45 of 66 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for DLTR just turned positive on September 30, 2026. Looking at past instances where DLTR's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 34 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
Following a +6.99% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where DLTR advanced for three days, in 199 of 290 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 6 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The 10-day moving average for DLTR crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 10, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 5 of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 38%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where DLTR declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
DLTR broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 14, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for DLTR entered a downward trend on October 13, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 23 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. DLTR’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 66 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 77 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. DLTR’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 59, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 84 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (6.357) is normal, around the industry mean (7.191). P/E Ratio (14.218) is within average values for comparable stocks, (36.397). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.447) is also within normal values, averaging (2.171). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.009) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.109) is also within normal values, averaging (1.008).
Momentum Indicator for TGT turns negative, indicating new downward trend
TGT saw its Momentum Indicator move below the 0 level on October 01, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new downward move. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 87 similar instances where the indicator turned negative. In 64 of the 87 cases, the stock moved further down in the following days. The odds of a decline are at 74%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
TGT moved below its 50-day moving average on October 05, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for TGT crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 07, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 10 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TGT declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
The Aroon Indicator for TGT entered a downward trend on October 14, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 35 of 57 cases where TGT's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
Following a +3.05% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TGT advanced for three days, in 197 of 299 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
TGT may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 11 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 12 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. TGT’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 36 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 62 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.034) is normal, around the industry mean (7.191). P/E Ratio (16.435) is within average values for comparable stocks, (36.397). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.972) is also within normal values, averaging (2.171). TGT has a moderately high Dividend Yield (0.029) as compared to the industry average of (0.009). P/S Ratio (0.654) is also within normal values, averaging (1.008).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. TGT’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 59, placing this stock worse than average.
DLTR | TGT | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 38 | 72 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 84 Overvalued | 62 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 77 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 23 | 36 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 41 | 12 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 66 | 11 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
TGT's Valuation (62) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as DLTR (84) in the Discount Stores industry. This means that TGT’s stock grew similarly to DLTR’s over the last 12 months.
DLTR's Profit vs Risk Rating (77) in the Discount Stores industry is in the same range as TGT (100) in the Specialty Stores industry. This means that DLTR’s stock grew similarly to TGT’s over the last 12 months.
DLTR's SMR Rating (23) in the Discount Stores industry is in the same range as TGT (36) in the Specialty Stores industry. This means that DLTR’s stock grew similarly to TGT’s over the last 12 months.
TGT's Price Growth Rating (12) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as DLTR (41) in the Discount Stores industry. This means that TGT’s stock grew similarly to DLTR’s over the last 12 months.
TGT's P/E Growth Rating (11) in the Specialty Stores industry is somewhat better than the same rating for DLTR (66) in the Discount Stores industry. This means that TGT’s stock grew somewhat faster than DLTR’s over the last 12 months.
| DLTR | TGT | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 61% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 74% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 72% | N/A |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 68% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 66% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 69% | 3 days ago 66% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 67% | 5 days ago 62% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 62% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 60% | 2 days ago 66% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
DLTR’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while TGT’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- DLTR’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- TGT’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
DLTR’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TGT’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- DLTR’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- TGT’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
DLTR (@Discount Stores) experienced а +4.67% price change this week, while TGT (@Discount Stores) price change was +0.40% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Discount Stores industry was +4.42%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +10.58%, and the average quarterly price growth was +11.83%.
Reported Earning Dates
DLTR is expected to report earnings on Nov 24, 2026.
TGT is expected to report earnings on Nov 18, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Discount Stores (+4.42% weekly)Companies in the discount stores industry specialize in offering substantial discounts on a vast array of retail products. Some companies in this industry also operate general merchandise warehouse clubs. Products sold at discount stores are typically similar to those of any department store, but the pricing of the goods is generally much lower (and hence the name “discount”). Think Dollar General Corporation, Dollar Tree, Inc. and Five Below, Inc. Many discount stores target low-income households and/or price-sensitive consumers as their potential market. Discount stores’ profitability could hinge on factors like competitive pricing, sufficient locations, healthy revenue per square foot, and effective advertisement. These store operators could have an edge over other retailers during financial crises or recessions, when many consumers could be looking for less expensive alternatives.
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DLTR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, DLTR has been loosely correlated with OLLI. These tickers have moved in lockstep 38% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if DLTR jumps, then OLLI could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To DLTR | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DLTR | 100% | -0.18% | ||
| OLLI - DLTR | 38% Loosely correlated | -2.49% | ||
| PSMT - DLTR | 28% Poorly correlated | +0.08% | ||
| WMT - DLTR | 27% Poorly correlated | +0.80% | ||
| COST - DLTR | 20% Poorly correlated | +1.13% | ||
| DG - DLTR | 7% Poorly correlated | +0.35% | ||
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TGT and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TGT has been loosely correlated with DLTR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 46% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if TGT jumps, then DLTR could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To TGT | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TGT | 100% | -1.51% | ||
| DLTR - TGT | 46% Loosely correlated | -0.18% | ||
| DG - TGT | 44% Loosely correlated | +0.35% | ||
| BJ - TGT | 30% Poorly correlated | -0.31% | ||
| TBBB - TGT | 14% Poorly correlated | +2.94% | ||
| WLTH - TGT | 10% Poorly correlated | -4.92% | ||
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