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DG vs DLTR
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Dollar General (DG) vs. Dollar Tree (DLTR) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Dollar Tree (DLTR) delivered a strong Q1 2026 earnings beat with adjusted EPS of $1.74 and raised full-year guidance, triggering a sharp stock rally of over 17% in recent trading.
- Dollar General (DG) shares have faced greater pressure, declining over 30% in the prior three months amid margin compression and softer profitability metrics, though they rose in sympathy following the peer's results.
- Both companies operate in the discount retail sector, with DG emphasizing rural small-format stores and DLTR leveraging a multi-price strategy across its banners for broader appeal.
- DLTR's recent one-year total return of approximately 28% has outpaced DG's roughly 14%, reflecting differences in execution and market positioning.
- Upcoming earnings for DG on June 2, 2026, represent a key near-term catalyst, while DLTR benefits from improved visibility into fiscal 2026 targets.
- Sector sentiment for value-oriented retailers remains mixed amid ongoing consumer caution and cost pressures, creating relative performance divergence between the two names.
Introduction
Dollar General (DG) and Dollar Tree (DLTR) represent leading players in the U.S. discount retail sector, offering investors exposure to value-conscious consumer spending patterns. This comparison examines their recent stock performance, business fundamentals, and market positioning to assist traders and long-term investors evaluating relative opportunities within the same industry. The analysis draws on observable metrics such as earnings results, price momentum, and sector dynamics from recent market activity, providing context for portfolio decisions without endorsing specific actions.
DG Overview and Recent Performance
Dollar General Corporation operates thousands of small-format stores primarily in rural and suburban areas, focusing on everyday essentials at fixed low prices. In recent market activity, the stock has experienced notable volatility, trading near multi-month lows earlier in the period before partial recovery. Weakness stemmed from compressed operating margins and profitability levels below historical averages, with full-year net sales reaching $42.7 billion in the prior reporting cycle. Recent weeks saw a sympathy-driven advance following stronger peer results, though the company continues to navigate a CEO transition and awaits its own quarterly update. Sentiment has been influenced by broader retail sector pressures and positioning ahead of earnings.
DLTR Overview and Recent Performance
Dollar Tree, Inc. runs a network of discount stores under the Dollar Tree and Family Dollar banners, with an increasing emphasis on multi-price points and store remodels to enhance customer traffic and basket size. The company posted robust Q1 2026 results, with revenue rising 7.2% year-over-year to $4.98 billion and adjusted earnings per share exceeding consensus estimates. This performance prompted an upward revision to full-year fiscal 2026 guidance, supporting a significant price increase in recent trading sessions. Market reaction highlighted improved execution on shrink reduction and category mix, contributing to stronger relative momentum compared with broader sector trends.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
In business model terms, Dollar General (DG) maintains a narrower price-point focus suited to rural demographics, while Dollar Tree (DLTR) has expanded its multi-price offerings to capture a wider suburban customer base. Growth drivers differ as well: DLTR’s recent results benefited from higher average ticket growth and margin expansion, whereas DG has contended with elevated selling, general, and administrative expenses. Recent momentum favors DLTR following its earnings-driven surge, contrasting with DG’s more muted trajectory amid pre-earnings positioning. Risk factors include shared exposure to consumer discretionary spending and potential tariff impacts, though DLTR’s guidance revision signals greater near-term visibility. Sector exposure remains concentrated in value retail for both, with sentiment tilting toward names demonstrating clearer operational improvements.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as earnings consistency, relative price momentum, and guidance updates, Tickeron’s AI models currently assign a higher probability of favorable near-term positioning to Dollar Tree (DLTR) over Dollar General (DG). DLTR’s recent beat and raised outlook provide clearer trend support, while DG’s upcoming report introduces greater uncertainty. This assessment reflects probabilistic weighting of available data rather than certainty of future outcomes.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Disclaimers and LimitationsTo compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is DG is a StrongBuy and DLTR is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
DG’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green whileDLTR’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- DG’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- DLTR’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
DG’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while DLTR’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- DG’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
- DLTR’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
DG (@Discount Stores) experienced а +0.52% price change this week, while DLTR (@Discount Stores) price change was +4.79% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Discount Stores industry was +0.34%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +5.59%, and the average quarterly price growth was +8.32%.
Reported Earning Dates
DG is expected to report earnings on Aug 27, 2026.
DLTR is expected to report earnings on Aug 20, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Discount Stores (+0.34% weekly)Companies in the discount stores industry specialize in offering substantial discounts on a vast array of retail products. Some companies in this industry also operate general merchandise warehouse clubs. Products sold at discount stores are typically similar to those of any department store, but the pricing of the goods is generally much lower (and hence the name “discount”). Think Dollar General Corporation, Dollar Tree, Inc. and Five Below, Inc. Many discount stores target low-income households and/or price-sensitive consumers as their potential market. Discount stores’ profitability could hinge on factors like competitive pricing, sufficient locations, healthy revenue per square foot, and effective advertisement. These store operators could have an edge over other retailers during financial crises or recessions, when many consumers could be looking for less expensive alternatives.
| DG | DLTR | DG / DLTR | |
| Capitalization | 26.1B | 23.8B | 110% |
| EBITDA | 3.32B | 2.42B | 137% |
| Gain YTD | -10.193 | 0.699 | -1,458% |
| P/E Ratio | 15.91 | 18.29 | 87% |
| Revenue | 43.1B | 19.7B | 219% |
| Total Cash | 1.35B | 1.01B | 134% |
| Total Debt | 15.8B | 7.59B | 208% |
DG | DLTR | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 22 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 62 Fair valued | 88 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 86 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 47 | 28 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 52 | 46 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 77 | 60 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
DG's Valuation (62) in the Discount Stores industry is in the same range as DLTR (88). This means that DG’s stock grew similarly to DLTR’s over the last 12 months.
DLTR's Profit vs Risk Rating (86) in the Discount Stores industry is in the same range as DG (100). This means that DLTR’s stock grew similarly to DG’s over the last 12 months.
DLTR's SMR Rating (28) in the Discount Stores industry is in the same range as DG (47). This means that DLTR’s stock grew similarly to DG’s over the last 12 months.
DLTR's Price Growth Rating (46) in the Discount Stores industry is in the same range as DG (52). This means that DLTR’s stock grew similarly to DG’s over the last 12 months.
DLTR's P/E Growth Rating (60) in the Discount Stores industry is in the same range as DG (77). This means that DLTR’s stock grew similarly to DG’s over the last 12 months.
| DG | DLTR | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 3 days ago 56% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 62% | 3 days ago 70% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 61% | 3 days ago 68% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | N/A | 3 days ago 74% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 61% | 3 days ago 70% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 59% | 3 days ago 71% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 61% | 13 days ago 68% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 65% | 19 days ago 66% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 59% | 3 days ago 63% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 61% | 3 days ago 63% |
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DLTR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, DLTR has been loosely correlated with OLLI. These tickers have moved in lockstep 40% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if DLTR jumps, then OLLI could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To DLTR | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DLTR | 100% | N/A | ||
| OLLI - DLTR | 40% Loosely correlated | N/A | ||
| PSMT - DLTR | 29% Poorly correlated | N/A | ||
| WMT - DLTR | 14% Poorly correlated | N/A | ||
| COST - DLTR | 7% Poorly correlated | N/A | ||
| BJ - DLTR | 3% Poorly correlated | +3.03% | ||
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