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DG vs DLTR
Dollar General (DG) vs Dollar Tree (DLTR) Earnings Recap: Recent Results and Fiscal 2026 Outlook
Key Takeaways
- Both DG and DLTR delivered strong Q4 fiscal 2025 earnings, with DG reporting $1.93 diluted EPS and $10.9 billion in sales, while DLTR posted $2.56 adjusted diluted EPS and $5.45 billion in net sales.
- DG same-store sales rose 4.3% in Q4, driven by traffic and basket growth; DLTR comps increased 5.0%, fueled by higher average ticket.
- Fiscal 2026 guidance: DG projects 3.7%-4.2% net sales growth and $7.10-$7.35 EPS; DLTR eyes $20.5-$20.7 billion sales and $6.50-$6.90 adjusted EPS.
- Both companies improved margins through shrink reduction, inventory management, and strategic initiatives amid value-seeking consumers.
- DG full-year 2025 sales hit $42.7 billion (up 5.2%); DLTR reached $19.4 billion (up 10.4%).
- Competitive positioning strengthens as discount retailers capture market share in a cautious spending environment.
Earnings Context and Why This Comparison Matters
Dollar General (DG) and Dollar Tree (DLTR) operate in the discount retail sector, targeting value-conscious shoppers with everyday essentials, household goods, and seasonal items. Their recent fiscal fourth quarter 2025 earnings, released on March 12 and March 16 respectively, highlight resilience amid economic pressures like inflation and shifting consumer habits. This comparison matters as both chains vie for dominance in small-box discount formats, with DG emphasizing rural markets and consumables, while DLTR leverages multi-price strategies post-Family Dollar optimization. Investors watch these reports for insights into low-income spending trends and operational efficiencies.
Dollar Tree Focus
Dollar Tree (DLTR) announced its Q4 fiscal 2025 results on March 16, capping a transformative year. Net sales reached $5.45 billion, up 9% year-over-year, with comparable store net sales growth of 5.0%, driven by a 6.3% average ticket increase despite softer traffic. Adjusted diluted EPS from continuing operations hit $2.56, up 21% from prior year, reflecting gross margin expansion to 39.1% via multi-price assortment testing and supply chain gains. Full-year net sales grew 10.4% to $19.4 billion, with adjusted diluted EPS at $5.75. Fiscal 2026 guidance includes net sales of $20.5-$20.7 billion, 3%-4% comps growth, and adjusted EPS of $6.50-$6.90, signaling sustained momentum from store optimizations and new openings.
Dollar General Context
Dollar General (DG) released Q4 fiscal 2025 results on March 12, showing net sales of $10.9 billion, a 5.9% increase. Same-store sales climbed 4.3%, supported by traffic and basket gains across consumables and non-consumables. Diluted EPS surged to $1.93, up significantly from $0.87 prior year (impacted by impairments), aided by 105 basis points gross margin expansion from shrink controls and inventory discipline. Full fiscal 2025 sales totaled $42.7 billion, up 5.2%, with 3.0% comps. Fiscal 2026 outlook projects 3.7%-4.2% net sales growth, 2.2%-2.7% same-store sales, and $7.10-$7.35 diluted EPS, factoring a modest tax credit headwind.
Head-to-Head Earnings and Market Comparison
Both DG and DLTR beat consensus EPS estimates, underscoring execution strength. DG's larger scale ($10.9B Q4 sales vs. $5.45B) provides leverage, but DLTR showed faster growth (9% vs. 5.9%) and comps (5.0% vs. 4.3%). Growth drivers include DG's rural focus and pOpshelf tests, versus DLTR's multi-price rollout attracting higher-income households. Risks involve tariff exposure and consumer slowdowns, though both exhibit low debt and robust cash flow for expansions. Sentiment favors stability, with DG offering dividends and DLTR aggressive buybacks.
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Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron AI currently favors DG with a 55% probability edge over DLTR for superior risk-adjusted returns over the next 12 months. DG's scale, consistent comps, dividend yield, and stable guidance outweigh DLTR's faster growth amid transformation risks.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is DG is a Hold and DLTR is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
DG’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileDLTR’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- DG’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- DLTR’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
DG’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while DLTR’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- DG’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- DLTR’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
DG (@Discount Stores) experienced а +0.48% price change this week, while DLTR (@Discount Stores) price change was -5.39% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Discount Stores industry was +0.71%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -1.87%, and the average quarterly price growth was +11.43%.
Reported Earning Dates
DG is expected to report earnings on May 21, 2026.
DLTR is expected to report earnings on May 21, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Discount Stores (+0.71% weekly)Companies in the discount stores industry specialize in offering substantial discounts on a vast array of retail products. Some companies in this industry also operate general merchandise warehouse clubs. Products sold at discount stores are typically similar to those of any department store, but the pricing of the goods is generally much lower (and hence the name “discount”). Think Dollar General Corporation, Dollar Tree, Inc. and Five Below, Inc. Many discount stores target low-income households and/or price-sensitive consumers as their potential market. Discount stores’ profitability could hinge on factors like competitive pricing, sufficient locations, healthy revenue per square foot, and effective advertisement. These store operators could have an edge over other retailers during financial crises or recessions, when many consumers could be looking for less expensive alternatives.
| DG | DLTR | DG / DLTR | |
| Capitalization | 26.4B | 20.2B | 131% |
| EBITDA | 3.24B | 2.21B | 147% |
| Gain YTD | -8.992 | -16.592 | 54% |
| P/E Ratio | 17.48 | 17.27 | 101% |
| Revenue | 42.7B | 19B | 225% |
| Total Cash | N/A | 595M | - |
| Total Debt | 15.7B | 7.66B | 205% |
DG | DLTR | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 7 | 55 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 33 Fair valued | 74 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 45 | 97 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 57 | 54 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 55 | 43 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
DG's Valuation (33) in the Discount Stores industry is somewhat better than the same rating for DLTR (74). This means that DG’s stock grew somewhat faster than DLTR’s over the last 12 months.
DG's Profit vs Risk Rating (100) in the Discount Stores industry is in the same range as DLTR (100). This means that DG’s stock grew similarly to DLTR’s over the last 12 months.
DG's SMR Rating (45) in the Discount Stores industry is somewhat better than the same rating for DLTR (97). This means that DG’s stock grew somewhat faster than DLTR’s over the last 12 months.
DLTR's Price Growth Rating (54) in the Discount Stores industry is in the same range as DG (57). This means that DLTR’s stock grew similarly to DG’s over the last 12 months.
DLTR's P/E Growth Rating (43) in the Discount Stores industry is in the same range as DG (55). This means that DLTR’s stock grew similarly to DG’s over the last 12 months.
| DG | DLTR | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 56% | 1 day ago 63% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 1 day ago 62% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 59% | 1 day ago 70% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 54% | 1 day ago 70% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 1 day ago 68% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 66% | 1 day ago 66% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 62% | 19 days ago 68% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 15 days ago 64% | 1 day ago 66% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 58% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 60% | 1 day ago 57% |
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DLTR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, DLTR has been loosely correlated with TGT. These tickers have moved in lockstep 47% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if DLTR jumps, then TGT could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To DLTR | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DLTR | 100% | -2.86% | ||
| TGT - DLTR | 47% Loosely correlated | +0.74% | ||
| DG - DLTR | 44% Loosely correlated | -2.68% | ||
| PSMT - DLTR | 29% Poorly correlated | +2.94% | ||
| OLLI - DLTR | 25% Poorly correlated | -5.05% | ||
| WMT - DLTR | 25% Poorly correlated | +1.47% | ||
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