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EC vs SU
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Ecopetrol (EC) vs. Suncor Energy (SU) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- EC (Ecopetrol S.A.) is a Colombian state-controlled integrated energy company whose American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) have rallied sharply from their 52-week low, driven by surging refining margins.
- SU (Suncor Energy Inc.) is a Canadian integrated producer delivering record cash flow, rising buybacks, and a materially lower debt load.
- Analyst sentiment diverges: the consensus on SU leans "Buy," while the consensus on EC skews cautious despite strong recent results.
- Both stocks are commodity-sensitive, but SU offers more visible shareholder returns, while EC carries higher country-specific and currency risk.
- Relative performance strongly favors SU over a multi-year horizon, though EC has shown meaningful near-term momentum.
Introduction
Both EC and SU operate across the energy value chain, yet they represent very different risk profiles and growth narratives. This stock comparison is relevant for investors weighing a higher-momentum emerging-market energy name against a cash-generative North American integrated producer. Because both companies are heavily influenced by crude prices, refining spreads, and currency dynamics, understanding their contrasting market positioning can help traders and long-term investors decide which profile better fits their objectives. The sections below examine recent performance, fundamentals, and observable momentum without favoring either name.
EC Overview and Recent Performance
EC, or Ecopetrol S.A., is Colombia's majority state-owned integrated oil and gas company, with operations spanning exploration and production, transportation and logistics, and refining and petrochemicals. In recent quarters, the company reported sharply higher revenue and net income, supported by a standout refining segment. Consolidated refining throughput rose roughly 5% year over year, and refining margins expanded about 60% to $17.30 per barrel, lifting segment EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) nearly threefold versus the prior-year period.
The ADR has climbed from a 52-week low near $8.57 toward the high-teens range in recent market activity, reflecting improved earnings estimates and firmer oil prices. However, sentiment remains mixed. While several analysts have raised price targets, major institutions such as Bank of America and Citi have kept cautious or underperform ratings, citing a comparatively low free-cash-flow yield, slower reserve growth, and exposure to Colombia's peso and political environment. Social unrest, security-related production interruptions, and a structural decline in natural gas output remain key watch items.
SU Overview and Recent Performance
SU, or Suncor Energy Inc., is an integrated Canadian energy company with a large oil sands footprint, refining operations, and a retail distribution network. Recent results have been marked by record-level adjusted funds from operations and record free funds flow per share, allowing management to increase monthly share repurchases to C$500 million, its second buyback increase this year. Net debt has fallen significantly, and the company has announced the sale of non-core East Coast offshore assets to concentrate capital on oil sands and shareholder returns.
The stock has delivered a strong multi-year run, with a roughly 76–85% year-to-date gain and robust one- and five-year total returns. Analyst sentiment is broadly constructive, with a consensus "Buy" rating, though some fair-value estimates now sit near or below the current price after the extended rally. Primary risks include commodity-price swings, refining-margin compression, weather-related operational disruptions, and long-term carbon-policy costs.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
While both companies are integrated energy producers, their growth drivers and risk profiles diverge considerably. SU emphasizes capital discipline, debt reduction, and direct shareholder returns through buybacks and a steady dividend, backed by a low-cost oil sands base and high refinery utilization. EC, by contrast, is leaning on refining-margin expansion, international diversification, and partnership-driven upstream projects, while contending with a stronger peso, wider crude differentials, and political and security risks in Colombia.
On momentum, SU has shown steadier, multi-year trend consistency and stronger relative performance, whereas EC offers a lower absolute share price, a higher dividend yield, and meaningful recent upside driven by refining. Risk factors also differ: EC carries elevated country, currency, and governance risk, while SU faces environmental, regulatory, and commodity-cycle exposure. For market positioning, SU currently enjoys more favorable analyst consensus, while EC trades with a wider dispersion of institutional views.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, stability, and capital-return visibility, Tickeron's AI would likely favor SU at present. The stock's sustained multi-year uptrend, strengthening balance sheet, and rising shareholder distributions reflect a steadier technical and fundamental profile than EC, whose recent gains are more concentrated in refining and subject to country-specific volatility. That said, EC's improving earnings momentum and lower valuation could attract momentum-oriented models in the near term. The overall balance of observable signals currently tilts toward SU for stability and EC for higher-beta, catalyst-driven exposure.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is EC is a Hold and SU is a Buy.
EC in downward trend: price expected to drop as it breaks its higher Bollinger Band on October 13, 2026
EC broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 13, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances where the stock broke above the upper band. In 34 of the 46 cases the stock fell afterwards. This puts the odds of success at 74%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 40 of 65 cases where EC's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 27, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on EC as a result. In 46 of 88 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 52%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for EC turned negative on October 29, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 49 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 32 of the 49 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 65%.
EC moved below its 50-day moving average on October 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where EC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 58%.
The Aroon Indicator for EC entered a downward trend on October 13, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The 10-day moving average for EC crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
Following a +3.89% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where EC advanced for three days, in 237 of 334 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 1 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 26, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 5 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: EC's P/B Ratio (0.000) is very low in comparison to the industry average of (1.710). EC has a moderately low P/E Ratio (0.002) as compared to the industry average of (11.510). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.670) is also within normal values, averaging (1.088). EC's Dividend Yield (0.152) is considerably higher than the industry average of (0.047). P/S Ratio (0.986) is also within normal values, averaging (3.764).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 19 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 39 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. EC’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 97 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
Aroon Indicator for SU shows an upward move is likely
SU's Aroon Indicator triggered a bullish signal on October 30, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor detected that the AroonUp green line is above 70 while the AroonDown red line is below 30. When the up indicator moves above 70 and the down indicator remains below 30, it is a sign that the stock could be setting up for a bullish move. Traders may want to buy the stock or look to buy calls options. A.I.dvisor looked at 300 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator showed a similar pattern. In 219 of the 300 cases, the stock moved higher in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move higher at 73%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 02, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on SU as a result. In 52 of 76 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
Following a +2.43% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SU advanced for three days, in 250 of 362 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for SU moved out of overbought territory on October 27, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 48 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 28 of the 48 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 58%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 36 of 67 cases where SU's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 54%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for SU turned negative on October 29, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 50 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 27 of the 50 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 54%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SU declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 58%.
SU broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 08, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 5 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 26, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 37 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. SU’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 52 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.929) is normal, around the industry mean (1.710). P/E Ratio (10.603) is within average values for comparable stocks, (11.510). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.230) is also within normal values, averaging (1.088). Dividend Yield (0.022) settles around the average of (0.047) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.887) is also within normal values, averaging (3.764).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 61 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
EC | SU | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 74 | 48 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 5 Undervalued | 52 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 1 | 5 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 19 | 48 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 39 | 37 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 97 | 61 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 29 | 75 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
EC's Valuation (5) in the Integrated Oil industry is somewhat better than the same rating for SU (52). This means that EC’s stock grew somewhat faster than SU’s over the last 12 months.
EC's Profit vs Risk Rating (1) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as SU (5). This means that EC’s stock grew similarly to SU’s over the last 12 months.
EC's SMR Rating (19) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as SU (48). This means that EC’s stock grew similarly to SU’s over the last 12 months.
SU's Price Growth Rating (37) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as EC (39). This means that SU’s stock grew similarly to EC’s over the last 12 months.
SU's P/E Growth Rating (61) in the Integrated Oil industry is somewhat better than the same rating for EC (97). This means that SU’s stock grew somewhat faster than EC’s over the last 12 months.
| EC | SU | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 3 days ago 58% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 62% | 3 days ago 54% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 52% | 3 days ago 68% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 65% | 3 days ago 54% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 60% | 3 days ago 70% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 72% | 3 days ago 69% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 19 days ago 71% | 3 days ago 69% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 58% | 26 days ago 58% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 74% | 3 days ago 61% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 73% | 3 days ago 73% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
EC’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green while SU’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- EC’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- SU’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
EC’s TA Score shows that 2 TA indicator(s) are bullish while SU’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- EC’s TA Score: 2 bullish, 7 bearish.
- SU’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
EC (@Integrated Oil) experienced а -3.43% price change this week, while SU (@Integrated Oil) price change was +0.05% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Integrated Oil industry was -2.05%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +6.68%, and the average quarterly price growth was +5.91%.
Reported Earning Dates
EC is expected to report earnings on Nov 10, 2026.
SU is expected to report earnings on Nov 03, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Integrated Oil (-2.05% weekly)Integrated oil companies are involved across nearly the entire oil value chain – from upstream operations like exploration and production, to downstream functions of refining and marketing. Exxon Mobil Corporation, Chevron Corporation and BP are major integrated oil companies. Their bottom lines’ response to crude oil prices could depend on the proportion of upstream vs. downstream businesses; for example, if a company has substantial downstream business, the adverse impact on their upstream business due to falling crude prices could be mitigated by benefits to its downstream business.
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EC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, EC has been loosely correlated with CRGY. These tickers have moved in lockstep 61% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if EC jumps, then CRGY could also see price increases.