EDV
Price
$59.27
Change
+$0.21 (+0.36%)
Updated
Oct 30 closing price
Net Assets
3.86B
Intraday BUY SELL Signals
TLT
Price
$81.84
Change
+$0.35 (+0.43%)
Updated
Oct 30 closing price
Net Assets
47.11B
Intraday BUY SELL Signals
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EDV vs TLT

EDV vs TLT Comparison Chart in %
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A.I.Advisor
Oct 21, 2026

Which ETF would AI Choose? Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF (EDV) vs. iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)

Key Takeaways

  • Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF (EDV) and iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) both provide targeted exposure to long-duration U.S. Treasury securities but differ in index methodology, with EDV focusing on zero-coupon STRIPS and TLT on coupon-bearing bonds.
  • EDV maintains a longer effective duration of approximately 24 years compared to TLT’s typical duration range of 16–18 years, resulting in greater interest-rate sensitivity for EDV.
  • EDV offers a lower expense ratio of 0.05% versus TLT’s 0.15%, providing a cost advantage for long-term holders seeking extended-duration exposure.
  • Both ETFs are passively managed, physically replicated, and hold only U.S. Treasury securities, eliminating credit risk while exposing investors to duration-driven price volatility.
  • EDV’s portfolio contains around 80 holdings concentrated in 20–30 year STRIPS, while TLT holds roughly 48 bonds with maturities exceeding 20 years, offering slightly broader maturity diversification within the long end.
  • In the current environment of evolving interest-rate expectations, EDV’s higher duration amplifies potential price movements relative to TLT during shifts in the Treasury yield curve.

Introduction

Investors seeking long-duration U.S. Treasury exposure often evaluate Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF (EDV) and iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as specialized tools within fixed-income portfolios. These ETFs do not compete directly with broad bond funds but instead deliver concentrated duration exposure that can serve as a hedge against equity risk or a tactical bet on declining yields. Their structural differences in index construction, duration profile, and cost make them relevant alternatives for investors navigating the long end of the Treasury curve in the present macroeconomic setting.

Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF (EDV) Overview

Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF (EDV) seeks to track the Bloomberg U.S. Treasury STRIPS 20–30 Year Equal Par Bond Index. The fund holds approximately 80 zero-coupon Treasury STRIPS, providing pure exposure to extended-duration government securities without coupon payments. Top holdings consist of individual STRIPS strips across the 20–30 year maturity range. Sector allocation is 100% U.S. Treasuries. The expense ratio stands at 0.05%. The ETF employs passive index sampling and rebalances periodically to maintain alignment with the index. Key distinguishing features include its focus on stripped securities, which results in an average effective maturity near 24.6 years and average duration of 23.9 years, delivering pronounced sensitivity to interest-rate changes.

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) Overview

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) seeks to track the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index. The fund holds roughly 48 coupon-bearing U.S. Treasury bonds with remaining maturities greater than 20 years. Top holdings include select long-term Treasury issues such as the 30-year bond. Sector allocation remains 100% U.S. Treasuries. The expense ratio is 0.15%. The ETF follows a passive replication strategy with regular index rebalancing. Distinguishing characteristics include its emphasis on conventional coupon bonds, resulting in a lower average duration than extended STRIPS products while still targeting the long end of the yield curve.

Industry and Thematic Backdrop

Both ETFs operate within the long-duration U.S. Treasury segment, a sector influenced by Federal Reserve monetary policy, inflation trends, and fiscal developments. Capital flows into long Treasuries often increase during periods of economic uncertainty or anticipated rate cuts, while outflows can occur amid stronger growth or persistent inflation. Regulatory stability in the Treasury market supports liquidity, yet risks include yield-curve steepening or flattening driven by supply dynamics and macroeconomic shifts. These factors shape positioning decisions for duration-focused strategies across market cycles.

Performance and Positioning Comparison

In recent market cycles, EDV’s extended duration has produced larger price swings than TLT when Treasury yields moved meaningfully, reflecting its greater interest-rate exposure. TLT’s coupon structure provides modestly lower volatility within the long-duration category while still benefiting from yield declines. Relative positioning favors EDV for investors seeking maximum duration impact and TLT for those preferring a balance between duration and income stability. Both respond primarily to broad interest-rate expectations rather than sector-specific earnings or commodity trends.

AI Screener

Tickeron’s AI Screener is an AI-powered stock and ETF discovery tool that helps traders and investors filter the market based on technical patterns, fundamentals, trends, volatility, and AI-driven signals. Users can scan thousands of stocks and ETFs using customizable filters such as industry, market capitalization, technical indicators, price patterns, and performance metrics. The screener helps identify trade ideas, trending stocks, breakout candidates, and market opportunities more efficiently than manual screening. Investors comparing duration-focused ETFs may find the platform useful for refining selection criteria.

Tickeron AI Verdict

Tickeron’s AI would currently favor Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF (EDV) over iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) on the basis of lower expense ratio, greater diversification across holdings, and more pronounced duration profile that aligns with extended Treasury exposure objectives. Structural efficiency and cost advantages support this probabilistic preference in environments where duration remains a primary driver of returns.

Disclaimer

The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.

Disclaimers and Limitations

VS
EDV vs. TLT commentary
Nov 01, 2026

To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is EDV is a Buy and TLT is a Buy.

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SUMMARIES
A.I.Advisor
a Summary for EDV with price predictions
Oct 30, 2026

Momentum Indicator for EDV turns positive, indicating new upward trend

EDV saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 13, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 91 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 74 of the 91 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 81%.

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for EDV just turned positive on October 13, 2026. Looking at past instances where EDV's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 39 of 48 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.

EDV moved above its 50-day moving average on October 21, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.

The 10-day moving average for EDV crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 27, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.

Following a +1.11% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where EDV advanced for three days, in 208 of 282 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.

Bearish Trend Analysis

The 10-day RSI Indicator for EDV moved out of overbought territory on October 27, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 23 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 20 of the 23 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 87%.

The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 13 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where EDV declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 85%.

EDV broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

The Aroon Indicator for EDV entered a downward trend on October 14, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

A.I.Advisor
a Summary for TLT with price predictions
Oct 30, 2026

Momentum Indicator for TLT turns positive, indicating new upward trend

TLT saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 13, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 95 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 72 of the 95 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 76%.

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TLT just turned positive on October 12, 2026. Looking at past instances where TLT's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 33 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.

TLT moved above its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.

The 10-day moving average for TLT crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 27, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 10 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.

Following a +1.05% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TLT advanced for three days, in 193 of 280 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.

Bearish Trend Analysis

The 10-day RSI Indicator for TLT moved out of overbought territory on October 28, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 22 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 19 of the 22 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 86%.

The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 14 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TLT declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 80%.

TLT broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

The Aroon Indicator for TLT entered a downward trend on October 14, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Technical Analysis
EDVTLT
RSI
ODDS (%)
Bearish Trend 2 days ago
87%
Bearish Trend 2 days ago
86%
Stochastic
ODDS (%)
Bearish Trend 2 days ago
90%
Bearish Trend 2 days ago
84%
Momentum
ODDS (%)
Bullish Trend 2 days ago
81%
Bullish Trend 2 days ago
76%
MACD
ODDS (%)
Bullish Trend 2 days ago
81%
Bullish Trend 2 days ago
73%
TrendWeek
ODDS (%)
Bullish Trend 2 days ago
77%
Bullish Trend 2 days ago
72%
TrendMonth
ODDS (%)
Bullish Trend 2 days ago
76%
Bullish Trend 2 days ago
72%
Advances
ODDS (%)
Bullish Trend 2 days ago
74%
Bullish Trend 2 days ago
69%
Declines
ODDS (%)
Bearish Trend 4 days ago
85%
Bearish Trend 4 days ago
80%
BollingerBands
ODDS (%)
Bearish Trend 2 days ago
90%
Bearish Trend 2 days ago
90%
Aroon
ODDS (%)
Bearish Trend 2 days ago
86%
Bearish Trend 2 days ago
80%
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Daily Signal:
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