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FANG vs SM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Diamondback Energy (FANG) vs. SM Energy (SM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- SM Energy (SM) has delivered superior year-to-date returns of approximately 65%, outpacing Diamondback Energy (FANG)'s 37% gains amid volatile oil markets.
- SM trades at a lower P/E ratio of 5.4 compared to FANG's 36, suggesting relatively cheaper valuation on earnings.
- Both stocks benefit from Permian Basin exposure, but SM recently sold non-core South Texas assets for $950 million to focus on high-return areas.
- FANG boasts a larger market cap of $57 billion versus SM's $7 billion, offering greater scale and liquidity.
- Analyst price targets imply modest upside for both, with SM at around 11% and FANG at 5% from recent levels.
Introduction
Diamondback Energy (FANG) and SM Energy (SM) are independent exploration and production (E&P) companies primarily operating in the prolific Permian Basin, making them prime candidates for comparison in the current energy sector landscape. Both stocks are highly sensitive to crude oil prices, production efficiencies, and macroeconomic shifts, appealing to traders seeking relative performance edges and investors eyeing value in upstream oil and gas. This analysis highlights their recent market positioning, operational updates, and key metrics to aid informed decision-making amid fluctuating commodity environments.
FANG Overview and Recent Performance
Diamondback Energy (FANG), headquartered in Midland, Texas, focuses on acquiring, developing, and producing oil and natural gas reserves in the Permian Basin's Midland and Delaware sub-basins. The company emphasizes the Spraberry, Wolfcamp, and Bone Spring formations. In recent market activity, FANG shares have shown resilience, trading near their 52-week high of around $207 with a current price of approximately $204 and a market cap exceeding $57 billion. Year-to-date gains stand at about 37%, supported by strong production growth to over 940,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) in recent quarters. Sentiment has been bolstered by analyst upgrades, anticipation for Q1 earnings, and favorable oil price outlooks amid geopolitical tensions, though elevated P/E ratios reflect growth expectations tempered by oil price volatility.
SM Overview and Recent Performance
SM Energy (SM), based in Denver, Colorado, engages in oil, gas, and natural gas liquids production across the Midland Basin, South Texas, and other U.S. basins. Recent weeks have seen SM complete a $950 million divestiture of South Texas assets, including redemption of all 2026 senior notes, streamlining its portfolio toward core Permian holdings. Shares hover around $30, with a $7 billion market cap and impressive year-to-date performance of roughly 65%, outperforming broader energy peers. This momentum stems from operational strength, with quarterly revenues near $718 million, though recent pullbacks reflect sector-wide pressures. Low P/E and upcoming earnings keep investor interest high, driven by production efficiencies and commodity tailwinds.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Both FANG and SM operate similar E&P business models centered on unconventional shale resources, with primary growth drivers in Permian drilling efficiencies and oil price exposure. FANG edges in scale and liquidity as a larger-cap player, enabling sustained capital returns amid mergers like recent Endeavor integrations. SM counters with higher recent momentum and portfolio optimization via divestitures, trading at a discount on earnings multiples. Risk factors include commodity volatility and regulatory shifts affecting both equally, though SM's smaller size amplifies beta to oil swings. Market sentiment favors SM for value plays, while FANG appeals for stability in uncertain energy transitions.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI models currently lean toward SM Energy (SM) over Diamondback Energy (FANG), citing superior trend consistency with 65% YTD gains, attractive low-single-digit P/E valuation, and positive catalysts from recent asset sales enhancing Midland focus. While FANG offers scale advantages, SM's relative momentum and positioning suggest higher probability of near-term outperformance in a supportive oil environment.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is FANG is a Hold and SM is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
FANG’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green whileSM’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- FANG’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- SM’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
FANG’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while SM’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- FANG’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
- SM’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
FANG (@Oil & Gas Production) experienced а +3.09% price change this week, while SM (@Oil & Gas Production) price change was +9.18% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Oil & Gas Production industry was +1.06%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +3.39%, and the average quarterly price growth was +35.82%.
Reported Earning Dates
FANG is expected to report earnings on Aug 03, 2026.
SM is expected to report earnings on Aug 05, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Oil & Gas Production (+1.06% weekly)The oil and gas production segment includes companies that specialize in exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas. These companies are focused on upstream operations. Companies typically identify deposits, drill wells, and extract raw materials from underground. The industry also includes related services like rig operations, feasibility studies, machinery rentals etc. Several operators in this industry work with various types of contractors such as engineering procurement and construction contractors, as well as with joint-venture partners and oil field service companies. Oil and gas often involves large fixed costs of production; so, declining crude oil prices, for example, is a potential negative for this industry. Conoco Phillips, EOG Resources, Inc. and Pioneer Natural Resources Company are some examples of companies operating in this space.
| FANG | SM | FANG / SM | |
| Capitalization | 56.6B | 7.47B | 757% |
| EBITDA | 5.68B | 1.8B | 316% |
| Gain YTD | 34.572 | 68.109 | 51% |
| P/E Ratio | 205.20 | 13.15 | 1,560% |
| Revenue | 15.1B | 3.78B | 400% |
| Total Cash | 174M | 449M | 39% |
| Total Debt | 13.9B | 7.98B | 174% |
FANG | SM | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 12 | 14 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 99 Overvalued | 36 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 32 | 70 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 90 | 89 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 17 | 39 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 1 | 4 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
SM's Valuation (36) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is somewhat better than the same rating for FANG (99). This means that SM’s stock grew somewhat faster than FANG’s over the last 12 months.
FANG's Profit vs Risk Rating (32) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is somewhat better than the same rating for SM (70). This means that FANG’s stock grew somewhat faster than SM’s over the last 12 months.
SM's SMR Rating (89) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is in the same range as FANG (90). This means that SM’s stock grew similarly to FANG’s over the last 12 months.
FANG's Price Growth Rating (17) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is in the same range as SM (39). This means that FANG’s stock grew similarly to SM’s over the last 12 months.
FANG's P/E Growth Rating (1) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is in the same range as SM (4). This means that FANG’s stock grew similarly to SM’s over the last 12 months.
| FANG | SM | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 73% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 85% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 60% | 1 day ago 81% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 87% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 73% | 1 day ago 76% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 69% | 1 day ago 73% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 3 days ago 75% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 58% | 9 days ago 77% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 1 day ago 68% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 59% | 1 day ago 74% |
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SM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SM has been closely correlated with CHRD. These tickers have moved in lockstep 84% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if SM jumps, then CHRD could also see price increases.