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OVV vs SM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Ovintiv Inc. (OVV) vs. SM Energy Company (SM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- SM Energy Company (SM) leads year-to-date with a 58.78% gain, outpacing Ovintiv Inc. (OVV)'s 47.56% rise amid strong Q1 production beats and merger synergies.
- OVV shows superior one-year performance at 51.78% versus SM's 33.67%, bolstered by portfolio streamlining including the recent Anadarko asset sale.
- Recent weeks saw both stocks dip around 6-8% over five days, reflecting oil price volatility, though both maintain positive one-month momentum near 2%.
- SM trades at lower multiples with aggressive debt reduction post-Civitas merger, while OVV benefits from diversified U.S. and Canadian exposure.
- SM raised full-year production guidance after Q1 outperformance; OVV awaits Q1 results on May 11 with positive Earnings ESP (Earnings Surprise Predictor).
- Market caps differ significantly: OVV at $16.4B versus SM at $7.1B, influencing scale and risk profiles.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines OVV and SM, two independent oil and gas exploration and production (E&P) companies focused on high-margin North American basins. Both operate in the volatile energy sector, where crude oil prices, production efficiency, and balance sheet strength drive relative performance. Traders seeking short-term momentum from recent earnings beats and portfolio optimizations, or investors eyeing long-term exposure to Permian and Montney plays, will find value in contrasting their growth drivers, recent market positioning, and risk factors. In recent market activity, sector tailwinds from geopolitical tensions have supported gains, but commodity swings highlight the need for disciplined capital allocation.
OVV Overview and Recent Performance
Ovintiv Inc. (OVV) is a North American E&P firm emphasizing oil, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and natural gas from premium assets in the Permian Basin (U.S.) and Montney (Canada). Recent weeks have seen OVV shares around $57.83, down 0.82% in the latest session but up 47.56% YTD and 51.78% over one year. Five-day performance dipped 8.10%, reflecting broader energy sector pullbacks tied to oil price fluctuations.
Sentiment has been buoyed by strategic moves, including the April closure of a $3.0 billion Anadarko Basin asset sale, which strengthened the balance sheet by reducing net debt and extending maturities. This followed the NuVista acquisition, narrowing focus to core basins. Q4 2025 results beat estimates with adjusted EPS of $1.39 and revenues of $2.15 billion. Ahead of Q1 2026 earnings on May 11 (consensus EPS $0.98), positive Earnings Surprise Predictor (+21.28%) signals potential upside from higher production and lower costs. Broader momentum stems from operational efficiencies and liquids-rich growth amid favorable commodity realizations.
SM Overview and Recent Performance
SM Energy Company (SM) is an independent E&P operator with assets in the Midland Basin (Permian), DJ Basin, Uinta Basin, and formerly South Texas. Shares recently traded at $29.44, up 1.17% in the session, with standout YTD gains of 58.78% but more modest one-year returns of 33.67%. Recent five-day losses stood at 6.18%, mirroring oil volatility.
Key drivers include the January Civitas merger, expanding scale in high-margin basins, and a $950 million South Texas divestiture closed in late April, yielding $900 million net proceeds for debt redemption. Q1 2026 results impressed: production averaged 371.2 MBoe/d (190.3 MBbl/d oil), beating guidance midpoint, with adjusted net income of $1.55/share and EBITDAX of $970 million. Synergies hit $300 million actioned, raising the target to $375 million annualized. Full-year output guidance lifted to 410-430 MBoe/d, supported by capex discipline. Performance reflects execution in simul-frac operations and well efficiencies, enhancing free cash flow generation despite derivative mark-to-market losses.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
OVV and SM share E&P focus on liquids-rich shale but differ in scale and strategy. OVV’s larger market cap ($16.4B) affords diversified U.S.-Canada exposure, with Permian-Montney emphasizing inventory growth (3,200+ locations added since 2023). SM ($7.1B cap), post-Civitas, prioritizes Permian-DJ scale-up, achieving superior YTD momentum via synergies and divestitures.
Growth drivers contrast: SM’s Q1 beat and raised guidance signal near-term volume acceleration (54% oil mix pro forma), while OVV focuses on capital returns (75% of free cash flow). Valuation favors SM at lower EV/EBITDA (~2x) versus peers, with deleveraging to 1.0-1.2x. Risks include OVV’s cross-border gas exposure amid price pressures, versus SM’s integration execution post-merger. Sentiment tilts to SM on recent catalysts, though OVV offers stability.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors SM based on stronger recent momentum, Q1 production outperformance, elevated synergies, and aggressive deleveraging enhancing free cash flow yield. Relative positioning post-divestiture and raised guidance suggest higher probability of near-term upside versus OVV, pending its Q1 results. Trend consistency in oil-heavy output and lower multiples support probabilistic edge for SM in prevailing energy conditions.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is OVV is a StrongBuy and SM is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
OVV’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green whileSM’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- OVV’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- SM’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
OVV’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while SM’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- OVV’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- SM’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
OVV (@Oil & Gas Production) experienced а +1.32% price change this week, while SM (@Oil & Gas Production) price change was -2.63% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Oil & Gas Production industry was +0.22%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -4.70%, and the average quarterly price growth was +19.88%.
Reported Earning Dates
OVV is expected to report earnings on Jul 23, 2026.
SM is expected to report earnings on Aug 05, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Oil & Gas Production (+0.22% weekly)The oil and gas production segment includes companies that specialize in exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas. These companies are focused on upstream operations. Companies typically identify deposits, drill wells, and extract raw materials from underground. The industry also includes related services like rig operations, feasibility studies, machinery rentals etc. Several operators in this industry work with various types of contractors such as engineering procurement and construction contractors, as well as with joint-venture partners and oil field service companies. Oil and gas often involves large fixed costs of production; so, declining crude oil prices, for example, is a potential negative for this industry. Conoco Phillips, EOG Resources, Inc. and Pioneer Natural Resources Company are some examples of companies operating in this space.
| OVV | SM | OVV / SM | |
| Capitalization | 16.1B | 7.47B | 216% |
| EBITDA | 2.71B | 1.8B | 151% |
| Gain YTD | 47.399 | 69.156 | 69% |
| P/E Ratio | 18.90 | 13.14 | 144% |
| Revenue | 9.06B | 3.78B | 240% |
| Total Cash | 26M | N/A | - |
| Total Debt | 7.81B | 7.98B | 98% |
OVV | SM | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 18 | 77 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 38 Fair valued | 32 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 39 | 72 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 80 | 90 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 44 | 42 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 43 | 5 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
SM's Valuation (32) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is in the same range as OVV (38) in the null industry. This means that SM’s stock grew similarly to OVV’s over the last 12 months.
OVV's Profit vs Risk Rating (39) in the null industry is somewhat better than the same rating for SM (72) in the Oil And Gas Production industry. This means that OVV’s stock grew somewhat faster than SM’s over the last 12 months.
OVV's SMR Rating (80) in the null industry is in the same range as SM (90) in the Oil And Gas Production industry. This means that OVV’s stock grew similarly to SM’s over the last 12 months.
SM's Price Growth Rating (42) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is in the same range as OVV (44) in the null industry. This means that SM’s stock grew similarly to OVV’s over the last 12 months.
SM's P/E Growth Rating (5) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is somewhat better than the same rating for OVV (43) in the null industry. This means that SM’s stock grew somewhat faster than OVV’s over the last 12 months.
| OVV | SM | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 81% | 2 days ago 77% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 79% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 81% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 74% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 76% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 74% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 10 days ago 71% | 11 days ago 75% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 18 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 77% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 79% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 81% |
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OVV and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, OVV has been closely correlated with PR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 88% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if OVV jumps, then PR could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To OVV | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OVV | 100% | +1.63% | ||
| PR - OVV | 88% Closely correlated | +1.30% | ||
| CHRD - OVV | 86% Closely correlated | +1.20% | ||
| MGY - OVV | 85% Closely correlated | +1.43% | ||
| MTDR - OVV | 85% Closely correlated | +0.80% | ||
| DVN - OVV | 84% Closely correlated | +1.57% | ||
More | ||||
SM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SM has been closely correlated with CHRD. These tickers have moved in lockstep 83% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if SM jumps, then CHRD could also see price increases.